The Brown named Joe Flacco as their Week 1 starting quarterback Monday, confirming what had widely been expected since at least early August. According to ESPN's Daniel Oyefusi, the 40-year-old QB has handled 50 of the 75 sets of full-team drills with Cleveland's first-team offense in practices this summer (with Dillon Gabriel getting 14, and Kenny Pickett taking 11).
Although Monday's announcement comes as no surprise, fantasy managers who have already drafted Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku and/or Cedric Tillman should be happy to confirm that Flacco is atop the Browns QB depth chart. How long Flacco keeps the starting job is anyone's guess, but he at least looks better than Cleveland's other quarterbacks when it comes to supporting fantasy production for teammates. There are a few reasons to think that, although expectations can get out of line if we focus too much on Flacco's stint with the Browns in late 2023.
Looking Back at 2023
Flacco signed with the Browns in November of 2023, after Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder injury. Dorian Thompson-Robinson took over as the starter but played poorly and then suffered a concussion, which opened the door for Flacco to make five straight starts in Weeks 12-17 (plus another in the playoffs).
Cleveland had one of the best defenses in the NFL that year, but one of the worst offenses, with horrific QB play from Watson and DTR, no Nick Chubb in the backfield, and numerous O-line injuries. With his rushing attack producing 3.9 YPC, coach Kevin Stefanski let Flacco air it out for five weeks to the tune of 323.2 yards, 2.6 TDs and 1.8 INTs on 40.8 attempts per game. It was essentially a better version of Jameis Winston's stats (291.1 ypg, 1.7 TDs, 1.7 INTs on 40.6 attempts) in his seven starts for Cleveland last year. Flacco mostly threw to Amari Cooper and David Njoku in 2023, while Winston peppered Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman (pre-concussion) and Elijah Moore in 2024.
In terms of the volume, it helps that Flacco almost never scrambles — four times on 452 dropbacks the past two years between Cleveland and Indianapolis — and doesn't throw the ball away often or take a lot of sacks. His dropbacks convert to targets at a high rate, which might not be the case for any of Cleveland's other quarterbacks this year.
How do these players stack up against the rest of the NFL? Visit our fantasy football rankings for a list of the top players for the remainder of the season.
Less Passing in 2025?
No team wants to throw 40 times per game, besides maybe the Bengals or Chiefs in certain matchups. Recall that Stefanski's best year in Cleveland was his first, back in 2020 when the team went 11-5 while ranking 28th in pass attempts and fourth in rushes.
On the other hand, Cleveland seemingly has some of the same circumstances for 2025 that led to the aforementioned stretches of inflated passing volume in 2023 and 2024. The Browns are widely projected to finish last in a tough division, again, after their defense fell off a cliff last year while the offense suffered another season of Watson and his backups (plus more O-line injuries).
The Browns spent a second-round pick on Quinshon Judkins and a fourth-rounder on Dylan Sampson, but the former still isn't under contract after a July arrest for a domestic violence accusation, making him uncertain for Week 1, at the very least. Jerome Ford has good top-end speed and receiving skills, but his work between the tackles is less impressive, and he's taken more than 17 carries in a game just once (despite reaching 50 percent snap share 18 times). If he's the only RB that Stefanski really trusts early in the season, it should work in favor of more passing volume for Flacco.
As for the offensive line, Cleveland finally bid adieu to LT Jedrick Wills after back-to-back seasons plagued by injuries and poor performance, but replacement Dawand Jones is coming back from a season-ending knee injury of his own (after also playing poorly last year). The Browns didn't sign any new O-line starters in free agency, instead counting on better performances from Jones and 30-somethings Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller and Jack Conklin. All besides Jones have been high-level starters for multi-year periods, but even Bitonio may be just ordinary at this point, considering he'll turn 34 in October.
It's easy enough to see how the Browns might end up losing a lot and passing a lot, but that scenario might also entail pulling the plug on Flacco relatively early in the season to get a look at Pickett and/or one of the rookies (Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel). Fair or not, Flacco is more likely to keep the job if Cleveland can play defense and run the ball, which would likely put his passing volume around the low 30s (in terms of attempts per game).
Averaging out various scenarios, it seems reasonable to project Flacco for above-average volume and subpar-but-not-league-worst efficiency... maybe something like 235 yards on 35 attempts? That's enough to support two fantasy starters among the group of pass catchers, especially given Cleveland's uncertain receiving depth beyond Jeudy and Njoku.
Fast Starts for Njoku and Jeudy?
Looking at Flacco's stint with the Browns in 2023 and even his work with the Colts in 2024, he's shown a Jameis Winston kind of style in his latter years, boosting the value of his team's pass catchers even if he's not playing particularly well. Jeudy knows all about that, having ridden the Winston wave to a career-best season in 2024, eclipsing his previous career highs by margins of 23 receptions and 257 yards.
Njoku had stretches of big production both in 2023 with Flacco and 2024 with Winston, although the former was far more impressive — the TE had 28-373-4 in Weeks 14-17 of 2023. Njoku will see plenty of targets early this season, having already played with Flacco and spent half of a decade in Stefanski's offense.
Jeudy will also be busy, likely playing nearly every snap and being the first read on a lot of his routes, in an offense where Tillman, Diontae Johnson and 2025 Jamari Thrash are the other guys getting first-team WR work this summer. It's truly grim, as Johnson's preseason usage suggests he may even be on the roster bubble, or else just the No. 4 receiver (with Thrash being the slot guy for three-wide sets).
Tillman could also play nearly every snap in this scenario, although target volume is less certain. A 2023 third-round pick, he struggled to earn targets even when he ran a decent number of routes, up until Winston's first three starts last year when Tillman exploded for 21 catches, 255 yards and three TDs on 32 targets. Tillman slowed down over the next couple of weeks, however, and then missed the final six games in concussion protocol.
Even with that hot stretch included, Tillman's career efficiency stats are ugly through 609 career routes and 93 targets — a 15.3 percent target rate, with 0.92 yards per route, 6.1 YPT and a 3:7 TD:INT on passes thrown to him. Those are brutal numbers, even for a young guy playing with bad QBs, but Tillman still shouldn't be ignored in case last year's mid-surge was real improvement and not just a blip.
Jeudy has a stronger track record, although the second half of last season was really the first time he helped a lot in fantasy. He's been targeted on at least 21 percent of routes in each of his five NFL seasons, producing at least 1.7 yards per route every year, which makes him an easy projection for at least seven targets and 60 yards per game — with potential for much more — in a Stefanski/Flacco offense with shaky alternative at WR. I think Jeudy will produce at a WR2 level for fantasy early in the season, and anything less than WR3 would genuinely surprise me.
Slow Finishes for Njoku and Jeudy?
Comparing Week 1 expectations to ADP or auction price, Njoku and Jeudy are easily two of the best values on the board. The problem is that they'll likely face obstacles even if they start fast, with Flacco at risk of being benched for various reasons.
On top of that, Cleveland has about the worst possible schedule from a climate/weather standpoint for the fantasy playoffs, heading to Chicago in Week 15 before hosting the Bills and Steelers in Weeks 16-17. You can bet at least one of those games will feature strong winds that make passing much more difficult than normal.
In Njoku's case, there's an additional concern about rookie third-round pick Harold Fannin taking more playing time as the season progresses. The Browns seem to be preparing Fannin for a significant role, as he barely played in the preseason opener and was then rested (along with Sampson) for the second exhibition.
Backfield / Roster Build
Ford is another guy who could do well early in the season but nonetheless end up on shaky footing. It's not hard to imagine him opening the year with double-digit carries and 4-6 targets per week, but the Browns may eventually have both Judkins and Sampson healthy in an offense with a rookie instead of Flacco under center.
In many cases, the decision of whether or not to draft a Cleveland player will come down to roster build. At tight end, it makes sense to pair Njoku with a rookie like Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, or perhaps with Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (who has sneaky potential to see a big boost in targets if any of AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith or Saquon Barkley misses time).
Ford works well for zero-RB or hero-RB builds where we're otherwise counting on backups or waiver additions to help at the RB2 or FLEX spot. Ford is drafted well outside the Top 100 but may end up being an acceptable RB2 starter in September. He can even be paired with Sampson and/or Judkins, and without much of an investment.
Fantasy Expectations/Valuations
QB Joe Flacco: QB2 early in the season for two-QB and superflex leagues
QB Shedeur Sanders: Dynasty/Superflex Stash
QB Dillon Gabriel: Dynasty/Superflex Stash (deep leagues)
QB Kenny Pickett: two-QB/Superflex Stash (deep leagues)
RB Jerome Ford: RB2 or FLEX starter early in the season
RB Dylan Sampson: Rostered on bench in all formats
RB Quinshon Judkins: Rostered on bench in all formats
WR Jerry Jeudy: WR2 projection to start season / WR3 big picture
WR Cedric Tillman: Low-end breakout candidate, worth considering around Round 12-15.
WR Diontae Johnson: 20th round+
WR Jamari Thrash: 20th round+
TE David Njoku: Strong TE1 early in season / Mid-TE1 (full PPR) or fringe TE1 (standard) later in year
TE Harold Fannin: Bench stash in deep leagues and dynasty
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