Guillotine League Strategy: Week 4 FAAB Bidding Cheat Sheet

Guillotine League Strategy: Week 4 FAAB Bidding Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our NFL Waiver Wire series.

As I covered in last week's free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) article, there are several important factors to keep in mind when planning your strategy for long-term guillotine league success. To summarize: look for ways to improve, but don't overreact to early struggles. The odds of surviving the first few weeks are in your favor, so there's no need to overspend.

So what is the "right" amount to spend on waiver bids this week? That's what we'll examine in this week's article. 

If you're feeling desperate due to multiple injuries (Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, Isiah Pacheco) or underperforming players (D'Andre Swift, Zamir White, Michael Pittman), you may want to consider spending a bit more than the recommended bid. If you've been consistently in the top half of your league each week, you can be more conservative, perhaps even just sit back and watch your league mates blow their budgets.

Regardless of your existing roster and early season success (or failure), your goal should be to secure as many of the elite players as you can at a reasonable price. These are the players who you can imagine confidently starting on your championship week roster.

If your team has been struggling, you should also be targeting the next tiers of players. That would include both the players who could consistently start for you for the next few weeks but will probably get phased out by sometime in November as well as the streamers who add depth to the team and will get starts based on favorable matchups or short-term opportunities caused by injuries. 

Guillotine League Bidding Cheat Sheet

Quarterback Tiers

TierPlayerPosTeamRecommended Bid
1Josh AllenQBBUF$160
1Lamar JacksonQBBAL$120
1Jalen HurtsQBPHI$70
2Kyler MurrayQBARI$60
2Dak PrescottQBDAL$50
2Patrick MahomesQBKC$40
2Jayden DanielsQBWAS$40
2C.J. StroudQBHOU$25
3Anthony RichardsonQBIND$20
3Joe BurrowQBCIN$15
3Brock PurdyQBSF$12
3Sam DarnoldQBMIN$10
3Jordan LoveQBGB$10
3Baker MayfieldQBTB$5
3Kirk CousinsQBATL$5
3Jared GoffQBDET$5

Through three weeks Josh Allen has confirmed that he belongs atop the quarterback tiers. Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are also championship-level fantasy contributors. If one of the three is available in your league and you don't have a tier 1 or tier 2 QB already, you'll absolutely want to place a bid, but don't panic if you miss out. Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins are among the third-tier throwers who could benefit from favorable matchups the next couple of weeks. Check out the strength of schedule tool to identify matchups to exploit.

It is worth noting that bye weeks are coming in Week 5. I factored that into the valuation of Hurts and other Eagles and Lions stars below.

Running Back Tiers

TierPlayerPosTeamRecommended Bid
1Breece HallRBNYJ$200
1Jonathan TaylorRBIND$200
1Saquon BarkleyRBPHI$180
1Bijan RobinsonRBATL$180
1Alvin KamaraRBNO$140
1Kyren WilliamsRBLAR$140
2De'Von AchaneRBMIA$80
2Derrick HenryRBBAL$80
2James CookRBBUF$60
2Jahmyr GibbsRBDET$50
2David MontgomeryRBDET$50
3Kenneth WalkerRBSEA$50
3Aaron JonesRBMIN$40
3Travis EtienneRBJAC$35
3Rhamondre StevensonRBNE$35
3Josh JacobsRBGB$35
3Joe MixonRBHOU$35
3Brian RobinsonRBWAS$30
3James ConnerRBARI$30
4J.K. DobbinsRBLAC$25
4Jordan MasonRBSF$25
4Tony PollardRBTEN$25
4Zach CharbonnetRBSEA$25
4Devin SingletaryRBNYG$25
4Najee HarrisRBPIT$20
4Carson SteeleRBKC$20
4Zack MossRBCIN$20
4Christian McCaffreyRBSF$20
5Braelon AllenRBNYJ$15
5Raheem MostertRBMIA$15
5Rachaad WhiteRBTB$15
5Bucky IrvingRBTB$15
5Austin EkelerRBWAS$15
5Alexander MattisonRBLV$15
5D'Andre SwiftRBCHI$10
5Chuba HubbardRBCAR$10
5Jerome FordRBCLE$10
5Javonte WilliamsRBDEN$10
5Rico DowdleRBDAL$10
5Chase BrownRBCIN$10
5Cam AkersRBHOU$8
6Emanuel WilsonRBGB$5
6Zamir WhiteRBLV$5
6Isiah PachecoRBKC$5
6Tyjae SpearsRBTEN$5
6Justice HillRBBAL$3
6Gus EdwardsRBLAC$3
6Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL$3
6Jonathon BrooksRBCAR$3
6Nick ChubbRBCLE$3

Week-to-week injuries to Kenneth Walker and Joe Mixon have the two outside of the top tiers. Their questionable availability also makes bidding on backups Zach Charbonnet and Cam Akers tricky this week. 

Rookies Braelon Allen and Bucky Irving are moving up the rankings, as they have established roles in New York and Tampa Bay. Both are available in over 23% of guillotine leagues and should be rostered.

Wide Receiver Tiers

RankPlayerPosTeamRecommended Bid
1Justin JeffersonWRMIN$190
1CeeDee LambWRDAL$175
1Nico CollinsWRHOU$150
1Malik NabersWRNYG$150
1Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN$140
1Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET$120
1Rashee RiceWRKC$120
2Marvin HarrisonWRARI$90
2DK MetcalfWRSEA$90
2Chris GodwinWRTB$80
2Stefon DiggsWRHOU$80
2Tyreek HillWRMIA$70
2Drake LondonWRATL$70
2Davante AdamsWRLV$65
2Garrett WilsonWRNYJ$65
2Chris OlaveWRNO$65
3Zay FlowersWRBAL$55
3Jayden ReedWRGB$55
3DJ MooreWRCHI$55
3Brandon AiyukWRSF$45
3Amari CooperWRCLE$45
3Mike EvansWRTB$45
4A.J. BrownWRPHI$35
4DeVonta SmithWRPHI$35
4Diontae JohnsonWRCAR$35
4Khalil ShakirWRBUF$35
4Rashid ShaheedWRNO$35
4Jauan JenningsWRSF$30
4Terry McLaurinWRWAS$30
4Calvin RidleyWRTEN$30
4Brian ThomasWRJAC$30
4Jameson WilliamsWRDET$30
5Cooper KuppWRLAR$20
5Jaylen WaddleWRMIA$20
5Deebo SamuelWRSF$20
5Michael PittmanWRIND$10
5Jakobi MeyersWRLV$10
5George PickensWRPIT$10
5Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA$10
5DeAndre HopkinsWRTEN$10
5Puka NacuaWRLAR$10
5Courtland SuttonWRDEN$10
5Rome OdunzeWRCHI$10
5Keenan AllenWRCHI$10
6Tank DellWRHOU$10
6Darnell MooneyWRATL$5
6Tee HigginsWRCIN$5
6Wan'Dale RobinsonWRNYG$5
6Alec PierceWRIND$5
6Allen LazardWRNYJ$5

If you're looking for bargain bin pickups, look no farther than Tutu Atwell, DeMario Douglas and Andrei Iosivas, who each put up over 13 PPR points in Week 3.

Tight End Tiers

TierPlayerPosTeamRecommended Bid
1Brock BowersTELV$30
1Trey McBrideTEARI$30
1Jake FergusonTEDAL$20
1Dallas GoedertTEPHI$20
1George KittleTESF$20
1Sam LaPortaTEDET$20
1Travis KelceTEKC$20
1Dalton KincaidTEBUF$15
1Kyle PittsTEATL$15
2Cole KmetTECHI$3
2Mike GesickiTECIN$3
2Mark AndrewsTEBAL$3
2Isaiah LikelyTEBAL$3
2Pat FreiermuthTEPIT$3
2Tyler ConklinTENYJ$1
2David NjokuTECLE$1
2Evan EngramTEJAC$1

If your draft strategy was to secure an every-week starter at tight end by drafting one early, you are most certainly regretting that decision. If your plan was to wait and find a league-winner like 2023 Sam LaPorta, you also struck out so far, but at least you didn't waste a high pick.

The tight end position is a wasteland right now. Bowers and Ferguson might be the safest options for the next two weeks, as both are healthy and getting targets. Meanwhile, McBride (concussion), Kittle (hamstring) and LaPorta (ankle) are all questionable for Week 4, and Goedert and LaPorta have Week 5 byes. Any of the top nine could finish the season as TE1, but none are likely to lap the field. Save your money. Bid wisely.

 

Can I Still Join a Guillotine League This Season?

Yes! And the rankings above will be helpful for draft prep too. You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want. 

Here's how it works:
1.    Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2.    Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3.    All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4.    A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5.    Survive the chop and be crowned champion

Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve
Steve has served several roles with RotoWire, starting as an intern working on breaking news and analysis, moving to NBA beat writer and (years later) taking over as "marketing guy" and multi-sport contributor. He's also the undisputed best bowler at RotoWire, with multiple 800 series and 300 games. He will be thrilled when fantasy bowling becomes a thing someday.
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