Friday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Vikings vs. Saints

Open: 52.5, NO -6.5

Live: 50.5, NO -7

The recent history between these teams may or may not be relevant for their Friday matchup – the bounty scandal is nearly 10 years old, and Stefon Diggs' departure from Minnesota might drain some of the narrative momentum that might otherwise stick from the 2017 divisional playoffs game between these teams – but the Saints have enough to play for that we can probably at least expect them to approach this game with focus and urgency.

It's fair to wonder whether the Saints stumble all the same, especially with Michael Thomas (ankle) out and Drew Brees perhaps less than 100 percent in his second week back from broken ribs. The Saints urgently need to win this game with the Buccaneers likely to win against Detroit this week, so the Vikings might be in position to play the spoiler threat to the more ambitious Saints. In addition to the injuries to Thomas and Brees, the Saints also might be without slot receiver Tre'Quan Smith, left guard Andrus Peat and Peat's backup, Nick Easton.

Then again, the Vikings have defensive injuries to deal with, most notably the calf ailment that's kept All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks out the last three weeks. Kendricks is a nightmare matchup for any pass-catching running back – quite pertinent for Alvin Kamara's projection. There are only a few players in the league who can imitate Kendricks, and none are on the Vikings. Both of Kendricks' backups (Todd Davis and Troy Dye) are questionable for this game, too. It's not nearly as much of a loss as Kendricks, but it must also be noted that starting corner Cam Dantzler (foot) is iffy for this, and might be limited even if he plays.

QUARTERBACKS

Drew Brees ($15300 DK, $14500 FD) is only slightly more expensive than Kirk Cousins ($14400 DK, $14000 FD), though perhaps Brees' ribs and the absences of Thomas and Smith help explain that.

Brees goes against a Vikings defense allowing the 12th-least fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but the peripherals indicate a generally friendly environment. According to Pro Football reference the Vikings' pressure rate (19.2 percent) ranks sixth-worst in the NFL, and the figures they allow for completion percentage (65.8), YPA (7.6) and TD:INT ratio (27:12) all lean in Brees' favor. This is before considering the absence of Kendricks, or Dantzler playing with a bad foot.

Cousins faces a Saints defense that has allowed some big plays in coverage, allowing 25 touchdowns to 11 interceptions, but the defense is more dangerous than those numbers imply. They've conceded a completion percentage of just 61.1 percent at 6.8 yards per attempt, and their fierce pass rush probably has a lot to do with those results. The Saints have elite three-man rotations at both defensive tackle and defensive end, and those facts show up in their pressure rate (26.3, fourth-best).

Taysom Hill ($6000 DK, $10000 FD) played only 10 snaps last week in Brees' return, but typically sees a couple carries or/and targets in scoring range. Perhaps Hill's playing time could stand to increase with Smith out, but nothing is guaranteed with him.

PASS CATCHERS

Michael Thomas is out and Tre'Quan Smith looks highly questionable at best, leaving Emmanuel Sanders ($8800 DK, $10500 FD) as the highest-projected Saints route runner. Jared Cook ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) stands for higher usage than usual even if Smith is active, while Lil'Jordan Humphrey ($3900DK, $5500 FD) would likely need to serve as Smith's primary replacement in the slot. 

Rather than Humphrey it was Juwan Johnson ($3300 DK, $5000 FD) who served as New Orleans' second outside wideout in two-wide sets last week, but Johnson has been dreadfully ineffective to this point (two catches for 16 yards on eight targets in 144 snaps). If the Saints revisit Johnson's usage then it could be Humphrey or Tommylee Lewis ($2100 DK, $5500 FD) who stand to gain, though we also need to watch whether the Saints add Austin Carr ($900 DK, $5500 FD) to the roster before game time. Carr is a slot receiver for the Saints and would probably be a threat to Humphrey primarily. Tight ends Adam Trautman ($1500 DK, $5500 FD) and Josh Hill ($300 DK, $6000 FD) are candidates to pick up some of the slack too, but they generally alternate playing time depending on game script – Trautman plays more as the Saints throw more, while Hill plays more as the Saints run more. If you're considering either tight end you'll want the rest of your roster to assume the according script.

For the Vikings we're of course primarily concerned with Adam Thielen ($12900 DK, $12000 FD) and Justin Jefferson ($13800 DK, $12500 FD), both of whom are justifiable if not strong considerations even in lineups that otherwise fade Cousins. Because the Vikings are so dependent on those two, one or both is capable of a strong fantasy output even if Cousins plays poorly. Chad Beebe ($2700 DK, $6000 FD) is Minnesota's ill-conceived slot receiver plan, and he projects to see higher playing time than usual as the heavy underdog. They could improve their offense by playing Bisi Johnson ($600 DK, $5000 FD) instead of Beebe, but so far they have opted for the obviously worse player.

More than Beebe, the third-best pass catcher for the Vikings projects to be tight end Irv Smith ($7800 DK, $7500 FD), who should see a starter-like snap count even if Kyle Rudolph ($3600 DK, $7000 FD) plays through his foot issue. Smith's collision with the Saints defense is an interesting one -- they've defended tight ends very well (58.6 percent catch rate, 5.6 YPT), but they've also funneled a lot of targets toward them (111, fourth-most). Tyler Conklin ($4500 DK, $6000 FD) could see starter snaps too if Rudolph sits again, just be aware that his otherwise strong production of late is largely propelled by a probably unsustainable average of 7.3 yards after the catch per catch.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook ($12000 DK, $16000 FD) is of course a beast, to the point that even tough matchups just don't necessarily mean that much for his projection. The Buccaneers are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry to running backs, yet Cook tore through them all the same. It's a good thing we know he's capable of such greatness, because greatness might be what it takes to produce against this Saints defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. More concerning than the Saints' run defense is their pass defense of running backs -- despite having their fair share of leads the Saints have allowed only 77 targets to opposing running backs (fifth fewest), and at a brutal 4.5 yards per target. Perhaps Cook can transcend both as a runner and pass catcher here, but it would be quite a feat if he did. Alexander Mattison ($2000 DK, $7000 FD) would be the backup if he can play through his concussion, but he along with Ameer Abdullah ($200 DK, $5000 FD) and Mike Boone ($200 DK, $5500 FD) project very poorly in a game where the Vikings are road underdogs.

Alvin Kamara ($11600 DK, $15000 FD) is in a great spot especially if Eric Kendricks sits. Thomas' absence but Brees' presence, while playing at home, sets up a script for both high usage and favorable circumstances. The main danger to Kamara's point total might be Latavius Murray ($4800 DK, $8500 FD), who could get a disproportionate number of clock-killing carries if the Vikings fail to make the game competitive. The Saints would presumably prefer to keep Kamara fresh for the playoffs, and if the Vikings let Murray beat them instead then the Saints might take up that offer. Plus, Murray Revenge Game.

The Saints' injury issues at receiver could also lead them to give more usage to Ty Montgomery ($300 DK, $5000 FD), at either or both of running back and wide receiver. Montgomery was a good receiver at Stanford before he settled in as an injury-prone NFL running back, and the salary cap relief he offers is very tempting otherwise.

KICKERS

Dan Bailey ($5100 DK, $8000 FD) should be lowly owned as an underdog road kicker. The Saints have allowed the fifth-fewest extra point attempts (30), and the Vikings might need to pass on field goal opportunities for fourth-down conversion attempts instead. But Bailey could be useful if one assumes an upset script.

Will Lutz ($5700 DK, $9000 FD) has one of his best projections of the year, meanwhile. He's a home favorite on a team that scores regularly and typically secures strong field positioning on offense. The Vikings have allowed 37 field goal attempts, moreover, which is second-most in the league. If you think the Saints win safely but fail to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns, then that particular scenario could very well involve a big game for Lutz.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Vikings ($4200 DK) will likely be unpopular, and likely for good reason. Brees' ribs and the Saints' receiver injuries might be good reasons to give the Vikings more consideration than usual, but it's just difficult to see what they offer. They don't really rush the passer, their cornerbacks are overmatched and unlikely to create turnovers, and they project to give up a significant point total in this particular game.

The Saints ($6300 DK), by contrast, might be a mainstream consideration for showdown lineups. Cousins is capable of falling apart, especially when the pass rush gets raucous, and the Saints present a unique threat as far as that goes. Sacks, turnovers and a low point total are all on the table.