This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Jets versus the Dolphins on Friday should have been a much better matchup than this – the Jets should be much better because Aaron Rodgers wasn't supposed to get hurt, and failing that Zach Wilson was supposed to be a much better quarterback than he turned out to be – but the game isn't entirely without its perils for Miami, who still has to deal with the excellent Jets defense. Tim Boyle is the new starting quarterback for the Jets, though it remains to be seen how long that lasts. Tua Tagovailoa will need to reaffirm his MVP case with a solid showing, but he'll need to do it with his supporting cast at less than 100 percent health, though Tyreek Hill (hand) and De'Von Achane (knee) are expected to play. The over/under is a meager 41.0 points with the spread Miami favored by 9.5 points (up from 7.5).
QUARTERBACK
The Dolphins offense really struggled against the Jets defense in 2022, but Tua Tagovailoa ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) did not play in either of those games. The expectation is that the results will be very different with Tagovailoa playing this time around. Not only is Tagovailoa much better than what the Jets saw in 2022, but the Dolphins should have favorable field positioning due to the likely struggles of the Jets passing game. Maybe Tagovailoa needs to grind for his numbers a little, but the Dolphins should find their points eventually and when they do they tend to need
The Jets versus the Dolphins on Friday should have been a much better matchup than this – the Jets should be much better because Aaron Rodgers wasn't supposed to get hurt, and failing that Zach Wilson was supposed to be a much better quarterback than he turned out to be – but the game isn't entirely without its perils for Miami, who still has to deal with the excellent Jets defense. Tim Boyle is the new starting quarterback for the Jets, though it remains to be seen how long that lasts. Tua Tagovailoa will need to reaffirm his MVP case with a solid showing, but he'll need to do it with his supporting cast at less than 100 percent health, though Tyreek Hill (hand) and De'Von Achane (knee) are expected to play. The over/under is a meager 41.0 points with the spread Miami favored by 9.5 points (up from 7.5).
QUARTERBACK
The Dolphins offense really struggled against the Jets defense in 2022, but Tua Tagovailoa ($11000 DK, $15500 FD) did not play in either of those games. The expectation is that the results will be very different with Tagovailoa playing this time around. Not only is Tagovailoa much better than what the Jets saw in 2022, but the Dolphins should have favorable field positioning due to the likely struggles of the Jets passing game. Maybe Tagovailoa needs to grind for his numbers a little, but the Dolphins should find their points eventually and when they do they tend to need Tagovailoa to get them there.
Tim Boyle ($6000 DK, $11000 FD) is expected to start for the Jets, and with that comes a substantial level of opportunity. There's not much reason to think Boyle can cut it as an NFL quarterback, however, to the point that the concern is more than just the potential of poor numbers. Boyle is capable of struggling to the point that he gets benched quickly, in which scenario the Jets would turn next to Trevor Siemian ($6000 DK, $11000 FD). Siemian would likely struggle, too, but he has a more convincing history of production than Boyle.
RUNNING BACK
Raheem Mostert ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) is playing through an ankle injury but took on a big workload in Week 11, taking 22 carries for 86 yards against the Raiders. It's possible that Mostert would have seen less work if not for De'Von Achane ($9000 DK, $13500 FD) leaving early with a knee injury, and Achane is expected to return for this game. In other words, Mostert might see a lighter workload in Week 12 regardless of his health – the health of Achane might matter more. On the other hand, if Achane is limited then Mostert might need to take another big workload to pick up the slack. Jeff Wilson ($1800 DK, $7500 FD) would be the primary backup if Achane is out, and might see some snaps as RB3 even if Achane is fully back.
Breece Hall ($7600 DK, $13000 FD) gets no help, dealing with an anemic passing game and an offensive line obliterated by injuries. Hall is a rare talent to the point that he can sometimes transcend circumstances that would doom most other running backs, and the Dolphins don't have great run defending personnel. As much as there are many or most things working against Hall, he has to be taken seriously here. Dalvin Cook ($4000 DK, $8000 FD) is getting most of the scraps otherwise, but just scraps, and he's not making much out of it, either. Cook has fallen short of his season-high 8.9 fantasy points every week since he posted that figure in Week 1. Israel Abanikanda ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) is hanging around as the third back, but it seems unlikely that he would see playing time unless the Jets get blown out and sit their starters.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Tyreek Hill ($12400 DK, $17500 FD) is managing a hand injury but isn't expected to face any significant limitations. The Jets pass defense is challenging as a group, which makes the matchup one the Dolphins need to take seriously, but Hill and Jaylen Waddle ($9600 DK, $10000 FD) should be able to win against man coverage. The Jets might try to make things difficult with zone coverages and disguised blitzes, but if Tagovailoa has time to throw then there's reason to think the Dolphins' dominant duo can make their presence felt. If not them, the Dolphins pass catchers most likely to pop up might be WR3 Cedrick Wilson ($2600 DK, $8500 FD) or tight end Durham Smythe ($1600 DK, $7000 FD). With that said, the Dolphins have a couple other options in wideouts River Cracraft ($2200 DK, $7000 FD), Robbie Chosen ($2400 DK, $5500 FD) and Braxton Berrios ($2000 DK, $7500 FD).
Garrett Wilson ($8600 DK, $12000 FD) was generally productive even with Zach Wilson at quarterback, so if Boyle or Siemian can be vaguely functional then there's reason to think Wilson can withstand the change at quarterback. The Dolphins corners can't cover Wilson – not even Jalen Ramsey. Whether a second Jets pass catcher can pop up in this game is a less obvious question, but Allen Lazard ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) and tight end Tyler Conklin ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) are probably the top candidates to step up next. Xavier Gipson ($800 DK, $6500 FD) has seemingly established himself as the Jets' primary WR3 – it's just not clear if there will be viable usage for that role. Tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert are also candidates to pop up on rare occasion.
KICKER
Greg Zuerlein ($5000 DK, $9500 FD) has most of the game details working against him given his poor offense and the gigantic spread, but if the Jets get into scoring range then Zuerlein is capable of striking, including from well beyond 50 yards. The fear is that the Jets are so inept on offense and so in need of touchdowns to keep pace with Miami that there might not even be long-range field goal opportunities for Zuerlein.
Jason Sanders ($5400 DK, $9000 FD) is not as good of a kicker as Zuerlein and sees far fewer opportunities – Zuerlein has 10 more field goal attempts on the season than Sanders. Sanders does have the theoretical benefit of being the kicker on a heavy favorite, but he has only three games of double-digit fantasy points on the year. He might need the Miami offense to struggle a little, leaving them desperate for field goals in an absence of touchdowns.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Jets ($3800 DK, $9000 FD) are heavy underdogs but their defense is still one worth fearing. Though the circumstances are working against them, the Jets defense is one built to withstand difficult conditions. The Jets defense got the better of the Dolphins offense in 2022, after all, though the Dolphins didn't have Tagovailoa for either of those games.
The Dolphins ($5200 DK, $9500 FD) have the much better setup despite having the worse defense between them and the Jets. The Jets offense is so much worse than the Miami one that any defensive advantage the Jets have is offset and overruled by Miami's advantage on offense. Boyle and Siemian are uniquely bad quarterbacks, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has abused quarterbacks much better than these.
