I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
Unless otherwise noted, references to "fantasy points" are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.
Start/Upgrade 👍
Quarterbacks 👍
Matthew Stafford (at ARZ) — 67% started
Start Over — Bo Nix (at LV), Jared Goff (vs. DAL), Joe Burrow (at BUF)
From an efficiency standpoint, the Rams' passing game has lagged a bit in recent weeks, but that hasn't stopped Stafford from extending his multi-TD streak to six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have become a fun team for fantasy, with their pass-happy offense often doing good things for volume on both sides of games. Baker Mayfield didn't capitalize last week, but Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy tossed three TDs apiece in Weeks 11-12. We can expect about the same from Stafford this Sunday, especially if DT Walter Nolen (ankle) and CB Max Melton (heel) aren't available for Arizona.
- Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (at DET), Bo Nix (at LV), J.J. McCarthy (vs. MIN),
Running Backs 👍
Quinshon Judkins (vs. TEN) — 77% started
Start Over — Kenneth Walker (at ATL), Jaylen Warren (at BAL), RJ Harvey (at LV)
Dylan Sampson took on more of a role the past two weeks, only to suffer a calf injury that has him in doubt for Week 14. The Titans have played much better run defense since their Week 10 bye, but nothing else has improved, which means Judkins should get plenty of volume. In his three previous starts where the Browns were favored, Judkins put up rushing lines of 25-84-3, 22-75-0 (plus 2-10-0 receiving) and 16-47-2, getting it done for fantasy without the benefit of yardage efficiency.
Chris Rodriguez (at MIN) — 14% started
Start Over — Kyle Monangai (at GB), Zach Charbonnet (at ATL), Tony Pollard (at CLE)
The Vikings still have a respectable defense, but their horrific offense is good news for a game-script-dependent RB like Rodriguez, who has more rushing TDs (four) than targets (two) this season. Three of those four TDs came in the past four games, a stretch in which Rodriguez averaged 11.0 carries for 50.2 yards as Washington's lead runner. All four of those games were losses, with the first two being blowouts, but we saw Rodriguez go as high as 15 rush attempts in Week 11 when the Commanders nearly beat the Dolphins in Madrid. I don't buy the Vikings being favored this week, and thus think Rodriguez can push up toward 15 touches again.
- Other Good Matchups: James Cook (vs. CIN), De'Von Achane (at NYJ), RJ Harvey (at LV)
Wide Receivers 👍
Jaylen Waddle (at NYJ) — 75% started
Start Over — DeVonta Smith (at LAC), Zay Flowers (vs. PIT), Emeka Egbuka (vs. NO)
Waddle should rebound from last week's dud even if the overall passing volume for Miami is lacking again. The Jets have one of the worst CB groups in the league since trading away Sauce Gardner, and their pass rush isn't nearly good enough to make up for it.
Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND) — 33% started
Start Over — Khalil Shakir (vs. CIN), Quentin Johnston (vs. PHI), Xavier Worthy (at HOU)
It didn't take long for Meyers to build chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, nor did it take long for Jacksonville's trade-deadline acquisition to jump into an every-down role. With Parker Washington (hip) banged up and the Colts defense missing some key pieces, Meyers figures to again top 90% route share while drawing a good number of targets.
- Other Good Matchups: Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa & Tom Kennedy (vs. DAL); CeeDee Lamb & George Pickens (at DET); Jaylen Waddle & Malik Washington (at NYJ); Adonai Mitchell & John Metchie (vs. MIA); Jakobi Meyers (vs. IND); Christian Watson (vs. CHI); Chris Godwin (vs. NO); Courtland Sutton & Pat Bryant (vs. LV); Devaughn Vele (at TB)
Tight Ends 👍
- Brenton Strange (vs. IND) — 49% started
Start Over — Dallas Goedert (at LAC), T.J. Hockenson (vs. WAS), Dalton Schultz (at KC)
He probably won't pile up a ton of targets, but Strange may be able to keep things moving as a medium-volume, plus-efficiency TE, after putting up 5-93-0 and 3-45-1 on just nine total targets in his first two games back from injured reserve. WR Brian Thomas also returned, last week, but then Parker Washington — who has more overlap with Strange's usage anyway — left the game early due to a hip injury. Washington missed practice Wednesday, as did some of the key players from the Indianapolis defense. Slot corner Kenny Moore (illness) should be fine, but CB Sauce Gardner (calf) isn't expected to play, and DT DeForest Buckner (neck) is still on injured reserve. What's left is an unimposing defense that's given up 16.4 PPR points per game (28th) to tight ends.
- Other Good Matchups: Harold Fannin (vs. TEN); Mark Andrews (vs. PIT); Dawson Knox &/or Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) vs. CIN; Mason Taylor (vs. MIA)
Streaming Picks
For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)
QB Trevor Lawrence (vs. IND)
QB Sam Darnold (at ATL)
RB Devin Neal (at TB)
RB Chris Rodriguez (at MIN)
RB Kenneth Gainwell (at BAL)
RB Bam Knight (vs. LAR)
WR Jayden Higgins (at KC)
WR Adonai Mitchell (vs. MIA)
TE Harold Fannin (vs. TEN)
TE Colston Loveland (at GB)
TE Darren Waller (at NYJ)
K Wil Lutz (at LV)
K Matt Prater (vs. CIN)
D/ST Packers (vs. CHI)
D/ST Chiefs (vs. HOU)
For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 30 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyrod Taylor (vs. MIA)
QB Tua Tagovailoa (at NYJ)
RB Tyjae Spears (at CLE)
WR Devaughn Vele (at TB)
WR Isaac TeSlaa (vs. DAL)
WR Malik Washington (at NYJ)
WR John Metchie (vs. MIA)
TE Mason Taylor (vs. MIA)
K Will Reichard (vs. WAS)
D/ST Dolphins (at NYJ)
D/ST Titans (at CLE)
D/ST Commanders (at MIN)
For Deep Leagues (Under 10 Percent Rostered)
QB Tyler Shough (at TB)
RB Michael Carter (vs. LAR) - if Demercado doesn't play
RB Samaje Perine (at BUF)
RB Ty Johnson (vs. CIN)
RB Jeremy McNichols (at MIN)
RB Jaleel McLaughlin (at LV)
WR Pat Bryant (at LV)
WR Dontayvion Wicks (vs. CHI)
WR Greg Dortch (vs. LAR) - if he plays and MHJ doesn't
WR Tom Kennedy (vs. DAL)
TE Colby Parkinson (at ARZ)
TE AJ Barner (at ATL)
TE Dawson Knox (vs. CIN) - if Kincaid is out again
TE Ross Dwelley (vs. DAL)
K Harrison Mevis (at ARZ)
K Riley Patterson (at NYJ)
D/ST Jets (vs. MIA)
