Fantasy Football Matchup Analyzer: Evaluating Opponent Strengths Before Setting Your Lineup

Learn how to break down defensive matchups and opponent strengths before setting your fantasy football lineup. Use analytics and tools to find weekly edges.
Fantasy Football Matchup Analyzer: Evaluating Opponent Strengths Before Setting Your Lineup
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Any good fantasy football analysis will reveal that players who face favorable matchups post more points than those facing unfavorable ones. This makes using fantasy football start/sit charts to evaluate fantasy football opponent strength a huge factor in winning games and league titles.

There are many ways to review these start/sit by matchup choices. This article will cover multiple ways RotoWire can help you do this, including the use of an NFL lineup optimizer, looking ahead to future matchups and using stats to gauge true matchup strength.

Analyzing Defensive Matchups to Find the Best Streaming Options

We'll begin with the best way for fantasy football managers to navigate defensive rankings. This may be the easiest method to maximize D/ST scoring each week. The key is getting ahead of the NFL waiver wire curve. You can do this by carving out a bench slot for a D/ST that you will use in a future week.

Once you do that, you then look at the future fantasy football projections at RotoWire to see which D/STs have the best matchups in an upcoming week. For example, in Week 9 you should be looking ahead to the best D/ST matchups for Week 10. Stash one of those D/STs on your roster ahead of time and you'll all but assure your team of a strong points total in that upcoming week. It's this type of future planning that separates the winners from the losers in fantasy football.

You'll also want to keep in mind which D/STs will have the most splash play opportunities (plays like sacks, interceptions, etc.). For instance, if you get a D/ST that is on a team with a powerhouse offense, that D/ST will be more likely to get scoring chances because the other team will likely have to play catch up.

The Most Effective Way to Analyze Matchups

Matchups are the great equalizer in fantasy football. If you locate favorable matchups using fantasy football rankings, it can turn a solid player into a fantasy scoring star, but unfavorable matchups can nullify the scoring advantage a great player brings to your fantasy team.

The most basic method for identifying favorable or unfavorable matchups is by looking at the Defense vs. Position charts available to you via a RotoWire subscription. There are many options here, including full season, customized time frame or the past eight weeks, but the most effective may be the last four weeks setting. You can also customize this search by scoring type or for specific scoring formats.

This is something that you should review every week for just about every player on your roster. That even includes stud players, especially if you are in an eight-team league environment. This applies to every position. Yes, even kickers, if you are in a league where that position is being used.

One key in this type of review is to keep your focus on fantasy points allowed per game. The other metrics such as yards per target (or YPT) allowed are helpful, but what you want first and foremost is points, so be sure to concentrate on that above all else.

Make the Process Easier with Matchup Analyzer, Sit/Start Tool

If you want the fastest way to find the best matchup, just use the Who Should I Start tool at RotoWire. This screen gives you five boxes that you can add player names to. Once you put the player names in and hit the review button, the system runs 25,000 simulations in a few seconds. It then shows you which player won the most head-to-head battles in those simulations and thus is the best percentage start.

You can also use the RotoWire Strength of Schedule tool to quickly identify which players on your roster have the most favorable matchups in the upcoming week. You can even customize this to look forward to schedule strength in future weeks.

Remember to Check Your Lineup Matchups Every Week

This matchup data constantly changes during an NFL season, so be sure to check this information right before setting your final lineups for the upcoming week.

You should also check out the NFL weather report at RotoWire to account for any inclement conditions when installing your lineups. This is typically best used as a tiebreaker, but if it helps avoid a bad weather goose egg once, and you'll be on the checking this every week.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
KC Joyner is one of the pioneers of the football analytics movement. He was a Senior Writer for ESPN, covering fantasy football, the NFL, college football, and the NFL draft for 14 years. He has also penned material for The Athletic, The New York Times and The Philadelphia Inquirer. KC's Scientific Football book series broke new ground in the football analytics world and was purchased by nearly half of NFL teams.
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