This Draft Strategy article looks at the current ADP and identify the best fantasy football draft strategy/strategies for the draft slots 1 through 3, which in a snake draft would leave you with one of selections 22-through-24 in the second round, selections 46-through-48 in the fourth round, and so on.
The first three rounds are a crucial point in the determination of your fantasy football draft strategy not just because they should generally be your best players, but because the early course you set will determine your initial points of positional strength and weakness. It's important to weigh those strengths and weaknesses against your forecast options in upcoming rounds, devising a broader plan to account for those weaknesses so that you're as strong as possible for the draft slots you've been assigned.
You can't build a juggernaut right off the bat. It's a longer task that requires both foresight – knowing the ADP and your slot's placement relative to the ADP – as well as in-draft adjustment so that you're not caught unprotected when the unexpected occurs.
It's important to track your own investments relative to the development of positional markets once your draft gets under way. This way you can create and adjust your plan in real time depending on which positional runs occur in the draft, doing your best to stay at the front of such positional runs.
Sometimes you might need to participate in the tail-end of a positional run if you get caught in a truly
This Draft Strategy article looks at the current ADP and identify the best fantasy football draft strategy/strategies for the draft slots 1 through 3, which in a snake draft would leave you with one of selections 22-through-24 in the second round, selections 46-through-48 in the fourth round, and so on.
The first three rounds are a crucial point in the determination of your fantasy football draft strategy not just because they should generally be your best players, but because the early course you set will determine your initial points of positional strength and weakness. It's important to weigh those strengths and weaknesses against your forecast options in upcoming rounds, devising a broader plan to account for those weaknesses so that you're as strong as possible for the draft slots you've been assigned.
You can't build a juggernaut right off the bat. It's a longer task that requires both foresight – knowing the ADP and your slot's placement relative to the ADP – as well as in-draft adjustment so that you're not caught unprotected when the unexpected occurs.
It's important to track your own investments relative to the development of positional markets once your draft gets under way. This way you can create and adjust your plan in real time depending on which positional runs occur in the draft, doing your best to stay at the front of such positional runs.
Sometimes you might need to participate in the tail-end of a positional run if you get caught in a truly difficult spot, but it's far more ideal to start a positional run so that you can get the top swipe of value at the position before the other drafters start scrambling for worse pieces of the pie after you. Having a viable plan for a balanced roster throughout various contingencies is key to keeping your draft picks occurring on your own terms instead of chasing market developments left and right.
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FIRST ROUND (Picks 1-through-3)
As far as your first pick goes specifically, the conventional ADP generally identifies five players who regular go in the top three: universal 1.01 Ja'Marr Chase (1.23 NFFC), Bijan Robinson (2.2 NFFC ADP), Jahmyr Gibbs (3.74 NFFC), Justin Jefferson (4.49 NFFC) and Saquon Barkley (4.99 NFFC).
Regardless of which player you take at this selection you'll want to budget you subsequent picks with your remaining needs in mind. For example, if you go with a running back then it might make it difficult to take a running back with your second or third-round selection, if only because most formats require three starting wide receivers but only two running backs.
That isn't to say you can't make running back the selection for two of your first three picks, but if you do so you might need to prepare to go a bit thin at wide receiver, because by the fourth round there generally are not any consensus WR2 types still on the board.
While there is no one best fantasy football draft strategy, you'll want to make sure you forge ahead in a way where you're not caught off guard in the subsequent rounds. It's one thing to knowingly take a risk (ie., two RBs in the first three rounds), but it's worse to be caught off guard because you can't control your recourse at that point.
Note: It's generally easier to execute a Zero RB strategy – which basically just means going very cheap at running back – than it is to execute a cheap wide receiver strategy, especially in re-draft leagues. You only need to start two running backs, whereas at receiver you need to start at least three. Scraping together one or two running backs is easier than bargain hunting for three starting receivers.
SECOND ROUND (22-through-24) and THIRD ROUND (25-through-27)
Might as well lump these two together since they're on the turn of the round. NOTE: if your league is third-round reversal then your third-round selection will NOT be on the same turn and will instead slot at selections 34-through-36.
Assuming snake draft order, though, you're looking at an ADP range that tends to feature the following names: Bucky Irving (20.02), Ladd McConkey (20.31), Jonathan Taylor (22.13), Josh Jacobs (22.64), Chase Brown (24.79), Lamar Jackson (26.13), Trey McBride (26.15), Garrett Wilson (26.96), Josh Allen (27.22), Kyren Williams (27.45), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (29.39), Tyreek Hill (31.08) and Tee Higgins (31.14).
Where your opinions land on these players isn't so important for your broader strategy – the key is more to build your roster construction in a coherent way while paying good prices along the way.
To go back to the earlier example: if you pick a running back twice in these first three selections then you put yourself at risk of paying bad prices later, especially when you're trying to catch back up at wide receiver. It's preferable to take McConkey at 22 and Wilson at 27, in other words, than it is to have to reach for guys like Jerry Jeudy (61.45) and George Pickens (61.88) at picks 46 and 51.
The market pinch at wide receiver also makes it difficult to go RB-TE in the first two rounds, for the same reasons as the RB-RB example. More specifically this is to say that if you plan on taking Brock Bowers (19.71) or McBride it will probably make it somewhat harrowing to select a running back in the first three rounds. Or at the very least, if you take Bowers or McBride you might want to avoid drafting two running backs in the first three rounds, because you really don't want Jeudy or Pickens as your WR1.
As much as there's a consideration to be made for unique roster combos, it would be particularly difficult to go both QB and TE in the first three rounds. A Josh Allen-Brock Bowers combo would be pretty sick, but maybe less so if the cost is that you end up with David Montgomery as your RB1 and Deebo Samuel as your WR2.
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FOURTH ROUND (46-through-48) and FIFTH ROUND (49-through-51)
In this range these are some of the top names: Chuba Hubbard (46.1), DK Metcalf (46.48), Xavier Worthy (46.77), Alvin Kamara (47.06), Courtland Sutton (48.67), Jameson Williams (51.7), DeVonta Smith (53.1), Tetairoa McMillan (53.7), Zay Flowers (55.82), James Conner (56.21) and Joe Mixon (56.45).
I personally would categorize those players as the following category of fantasy asset, so if the category in question is what you need at the current selection, I would consider these players sufficient for the need:
Hubbard: RB2
Metcalf: WR3
Worthy: WR3
Sutton: WR3
Williams: WR3
Smith: WR3
McMillan: WR4
Flowers: WR3
Conner: RB2/RB3
Mixon: RB3
If these players would not satisfy your definition of RB2, RB3, WR3, etc., then I would recommend reconsidering the configuration of your first three rounds so that the likely available players meet the needs of your build.
In other words, if the trade-off from selecting McBride in Round 2 and a running back in Round 3 is that you settle for McMillan as your WR3, then it might be grounds for resisting either McBride or the RB pick for a more substantial wideout selection so that you aren't disappointed with the options remaining at the fourth/fifth-round turn.
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