Understanding fantasy football ADP is more than spotting sleepers, it's about knowing where the market is wrong. Whether it's an overhyped RB going too early or a proven veteran being ignored, these mispriced running backs offer value opportunities.
Use RotoWire's full fantasy football ADP tool and our draft software to test different roster builds before draft day.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers – ADP: RB11
Josh Jacobs was quietly elite in Year One with the Packers.
He totaled 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024, his second-best season ever. Despite lacking big-play explosiveness, he averaged 4.4 YPC behind a strong offensive line, with above-average metrics in broken tackles and yards after contact.
Durability is another plus. Jacobs has missed no more than two games in four of the last five years. After Green Bay shifted toward a run-heavy approach midseason, Jacobs averaged 19.3 carries and 20.6 PPR points per game from Week 8 onward.
He's one of the safest picks at the position and deserves to be drafted inside the top-10 running backs.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: RB25
Kaleb Johnson looks like the next Najee Harris, only faster and more explosive.
While Harris was a solid volume back, he lacked burst. Johnson gives Pittsburgh the explosive element it's been missing, while Jaylen Warren projects more as a change-of-pace option after his efficiency cratered last year.
Arthur Smith's offense leans heavily on the run, often using extra blockers. Expect a reliable workload for Johnson in
Understanding fantasy football ADP is more than spotting sleepers, it's about knowing where the market is wrong. Whether it's an overhyped RB going too early or a proven veteran being ignored, these mispriced running backs offer value opportunities.
Use RotoWire's full fantasy football ADP tool and our draft software to test different roster builds before draft day.
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers – ADP: RB11
Josh Jacobs was quietly elite in Year One with the Packers.
He totaled 1,671 scrimmage yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024, his second-best season ever. Despite lacking big-play explosiveness, he averaged 4.4 YPC behind a strong offensive line, with above-average metrics in broken tackles and yards after contact.
Durability is another plus. Jacobs has missed no more than two games in four of the last five years. After Green Bay shifted toward a run-heavy approach midseason, Jacobs averaged 19.3 carries and 20.6 PPR points per game from Week 8 onward.
He's one of the safest picks at the position and deserves to be drafted inside the top-10 running backs.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: RB25
Kaleb Johnson looks like the next Najee Harris, only faster and more explosive.
While Harris was a solid volume back, he lacked burst. Johnson gives Pittsburgh the explosive element it's been missing, while Jaylen Warren projects more as a change-of-pace option after his efficiency cratered last year.
Arthur Smith's offense leans heavily on the run, often using extra blockers. Expect a reliable workload for Johnson in a conservative, defense-first system.
He's being priced outside the top 24 RBs, but top-20 production is well within reach.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans – ADP: RB28
Tony Pollard produced over 1,000 scrimmage yards in 2024 despite impossible conditions.
He ran behind one of the worst lines in the league, with bottom-tier QB play that let defenses key on the run. Now, Tennessee's offensive line is more stable, and No. 1 pick Cam Ward offers at least a modest upgrade at quarterback.
Yes, Tyjae Spears will be involved, but Pollard remains the more complete back. In a more balanced offense, Pollard should regain efficiency and command 60–65 percent of touches.
He's being drafted as an RB3 but has a clear path to low-end RB2 production.
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos – ADP: RB38
Injury risk is real, but so is the upside.
J.K. Dobbins has played fewer games than he's missed during his career, but he managed a relatively healthy 2024 season with the Chargers, missing only about a month.
Now in Denver, he shares the backfield with RJ Harvey, which should reduce his wear and tear. Running behind a top-tier offensive line and in a Sean Payton scheme that emphasizes the ground game, Dobbins could thrive in a two-headed committee.
He's being drafted outside the top-36 RBs, but the system, talent and offensive line suggest a top-30 finish is possible.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: RB50
Don't write Tank Bigsby off yet.
From Weeks 4-8 last year, Bigsby was clearly the Jaguars' best back, posting 96th percentile yards after contact and an 80th percentile broken tackle rate. He faded later but outperformed Travis Etienne throughout the year.
New OC Liam Coen favors downhill runners, a profile that fits Bigsby far better than Etienne or Bhayshul Tuten. Bigsby won't see much receiving work, but he could carve out a role as an early down and goal-line option.
Being drafted as RB50, he has real potential to finish as a top-40 fantasy running back.
Final Thoughts on Fantasy Football ADP Values
The gap between a player's projected production and their cost is where drafts are won. Jacobs, Johnson and Pollard offer fantasy football undervalued players, while Bigsby and Dobbins provide late-round upside in the right setups.
For more analysis on mispriced players, watch this:
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