This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 5 finished in the positive even with two of four tickets hitting. It made too much sense to back the Eagles and Patriots to each win by at least 14 points (+175), especially at those odds. Leonard Fournette anytime touchdown (+115) was a nice play, but David Johnson over 17.5 fantasy points (-108) missed out by 0.4 fantasy points after getting hurt. Austin Ekeler to score and Chargers to win (+155) never had a chance, but Ekeler at least saw a ton of touches.
Week 6 has a full slate, at least in terms of games being all day with the London matchup starting at 9:30 a.m. ET. A lot of eyes will be on the Chiefs-Texans game with the highest over/under of the weekend at 55 points. In case it turns into last year's Rams-Chiefs game, we'll put a ticket together involving those two quarterbacks.
Cowboys and Ravens to each win by at least 10 points (+269)
This isn't as easy as the Eagles-Patriots parlay last week and the odds show that. However, this bet could be decided as early as the third quarter for each game if things go to plan. The Cowboys (-9.5, +115) haven't looked great against better teams, but even with Sam Darnold, the Jets may be one of the worst teams in the league. And while I don't think the Ravens (-9.5, -140) are a good team, I'm not sure how the Bengals will stay within 10 points. A simple money line parlay nets -179 so you get a few extra bucks with this bet. I don't think winning by 10 points is a huge ask from two of the bigger favorites, and if you think they can win by at least 14 points, that parlay is set at +502.
Peyton Barber anytime touchdown (+250)
Barber is splitting carries with Ronald Jones (+200), but the odds are almost ignoring that Barber has scored in three of the last four games. One of those was on the road against the Panthers in which he had 23 carries for 82 yards in addition to the touchdown. The important stat is that Barber has three carries inside the five-yard-line compared to zero for Jones. The other part is that Carolina has the 29th-ranked run defense, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA. They allowed a touchdown to Fournette last week and the trip across the pond won't help their struggles against the run.
Dolphins first half money line (+154)
Who is the worst team in the league? The Dolphins are probably the answer, and while I believe they'll lose, I think they'll put up a fight at home in the toilet bowl. In fact, they've played decently against better teams in the first half, trailing 10-6 to the Cowboys and 17-10 to the Chargers at halftime. Even the Patriots game was 13-0 after the first two quarters. Throw in an extra week of rest and I think Josh Rosen will come out slinging against the 28th-ranked pass defense in the league, per DVOA. The Dolphins may eventually lose by 20 points after giving up in the second half, but they should be competitive in the first half against the other worst team in the league.
Chargers to win by 1-6 points (+340)
The Chargers and Steelers love to play close games. Four of LA's five games have been decided by seven points or less, and three of Pittsburgh's five have been decided by four points or less. The Chargers are at home, but Steelers fans will likely overtake the stadium in a night game. I'll still take the home team to win because of Philip Rivers, but they rarely blow out opponents, especially a Pittsburgh one in need of a win. Devlin Hodges is starting, yet I think the Steelers will move the ball just enough to stay competitive to go with what has been a disruptive defense.
Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson combine for 11+ passing touchdowns (+1000)
This is a fun one in case Chiefs-Texans turns into the shootout everyone wants. It's at least possible because Houston can't play the same way Indianapolis did last week by churning the clock with a dominant offensive line. Watson had five touchdowns against the Falcons, and with a few defensive injuries to the Chiefs, he could again have time to throw five more. Mahomes may have a bum ankle, but he could also get Tyreek Hill back. It's a little harder to trust Jackson after recent performances, but he already showed in the opener he could carve up a bad defense and that's what the Bengals have, ranked only behind the Dolphins in terms of pass defense DVOA. This parlay is asking for a lot, but it wouldn't be surprising if any of them hit five touchdowns and that would help a good deal in reaching the key number.
