This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We had some disappointing results from the Week 15 Tickets, as Jonathan Taylor was able to go over 76.5 rushing yards and score a touchdown, but he was six receiving yards short of going over 17.5, which ruined our +400 parlay (again, betting the individual props in addition to the parlay is usually helpful). Meanwhile the Chiefs/Saints game couldn't have gone any worse, as Tyreek Hill wasn't close to 78.5 receiving yards (finishing with 53 and a touchdown) and Alvin Kamara came 14 yards short of going over 54.5 receiving yards.
The Bears did us only half a favor, as Allen Robinson went over 76.5 receiving yards but they also beat the Vikings, which crushed the Vikings -3.0. We had a similar situation with the 49ers, who couldn't beat the Cowboys, which obviously means 49ers -3.0 didn't work, and while Brandon Aiyuk did get in the end zone, his 73 receiving yards were short of the 74.5-yard prop.
We'll look to bounce back in the penultimate week of the regular season, one that has three games Saturday before a bigger Sunday slate.
Kyler Murray over 44.5 rushing yards, DeAndre Hopkins over 83.5 receiving yards and Cardinals moneyline (+341)
After a few games dealing with a shoulder injury, Murray seems back to being a solid rushing option and now faces a 49ers defense that's allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, helped by the 91 Murray had against them in Week 1. The Cardinals are 6.0-point favorites, but we'll take the moneyline to play it a bit safer while combining it with Hopkins going over 83.5 yards, a level he's breached twice in the past two games, both going over 135. The 49ers have been hit or miss against wide receivers this season, but Hopkins was very successful against them in the prior matchup, finishing with 151 on 14 catches (16 targets).
Tyreek Hill over 78.5 receiving yards, Travis Kelce over 80.5 receiving yards and Calvin Ridley over 83.5 receiving yards (+600)
We're playing for a passing-yard extravaganza in this one, as you have to consider whoever is playing the Falcons, who have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this season, including the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers and the eighth-most to tight ends. The Chiefs have been the opposite, however, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers, but Ridley comes in off three straight games over 100 receiving yards and is likely to continue getting plenty of targets with Julio Jones out. The concern for Hill and Kelce is that the Chiefs get up big early and don't have to throw as much, but both players could hit their overs before halftime. If you're feeling particularly spicy, adding Le'Veon Bell over 53.5 rushing yards pushes this prop to +1412, or you can take a Bell anytime touchdown instead for +1184.
David Montgomery over 78.5 rushing yards, Mitchell Trubisky over 237.5 passing yards and Bears moneyline (+373)
Only four teams had allowed more passing yards through 15 weeks than the Jaguars, who also allowed the third-most rushing yards in that span. Montgomery has been excellent since returning from injury, rushing for over 100 yards in three of the last four games, a span that also saw Trubisky throw for over 240 yards thrice. Given the Jaguars are playing for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, there's little reason to think they'll be playing to win this one.
However, the Jaguars +7.5 was actually a unanimous selection in this week's Staff Picks, and if you believe they can cover (the line has moved to 7.0 but you can still do an alternate spread if you want that extra half-point) instead of relying on the Bears moneyline then the bet moves to +837. Or, if you want to go really nuts, adding Jaguars +7.5 to the above bet (meaning the Bears win but by less than 7.5) then the odds go to +1818.
Rashard Higgins over 48.5 receiving yards, Austin Hooper over 25.5 receiving yards and Browns moneyline (+378)
The Jets have been absolutely horrible against tight ends this season, allowing the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to the position on the 11th-most targets. Hooper hasn't been the most consistent pass catcher, but this is an ideal game for him after breaking the 25.5-yard mark in half of his last four games. Additionally, the Jets have allowed at least one tight end touchdown in each of the past five games (seven total in that span), so if you want to add a Hooper anytime touchdown then you're looking at a +927 payout. The Jets have also allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, and Higgins comes in with more than 48.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
