This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
If you're smart enough to individually bet player props and not rely solely on parlays then you had more success with the Week 13 Tickets. While Corey Davis squeaked by his 57.5-yard prop by finishing with 182, Nick Chubb came four yards short of going over 83.5 while Derrick Henry was unable to get in the end zone on only 15 rushing attempts. The Browns absolutely smoked the Titans, leading 38-7 at halftime, which really crushed Henry's potential.
Our big Vikings parlay was incredibly close to hitting, but Dalvin Cook's fumble at the one-yard line ultimately kept him out of the end zone, which was quite a bummer because Kirk Cousins went over 259.5 passing yards (finishing with 305), Justin Jefferson went over 68.5 receiving yards by ending up with 121, Adam Thielen went over 72.5 receiving yards with his 75, and the Vikings moneyline hit in overtime. Cook had a total of 38 touches (32 rushes and six receptions) but the fumble near the goal line was a real killer.
The Seahawks' loss to the Giants was also a shocking result given they were 10.5-point favorites, and while Chris Carson went over 58.5 rushing yards (he had 65), Tyler Lockett was unable to go over 63.5 because he finished with...63. Damn. And finally, the Raiders and Jets didn't help much, as Nelson Agholor finished three yards short of going over 40.5 and Breshad Perriman only caught one 22-yard pass, which means he wasn't close to going over 48.5. At least Hunter Renfrow went over 38.5 by finishing with 47. I specifically avoided Darren Waller and Henry Ruggs, who both smashed their receiving props.
Either way, we're onto Week 14, one that includes a number of very high totals, which means we're likely to see some pretty high player prop lines.
Tyreek Hill over 78.5 receiving yards and Travis Kelce over 73.5 receiving yards (+259)
Hill and Kelce have been absolutely unstoppable recently, and there's plenty of reason to consider that will continue because of how much Patrick Mahomes like to throw to them. Kelce has gone over 73.5 yards in five straight games while Hill has gone over 78.5 in four of his last five. I considered adding a touchdown for either one, with a Kelce TD moving the odds to +519 and a Hill TD +471 (or you can go nuts and bet both to score to bring it to +952). The Chiefs are 7.0-point road favorites in this game, which has a 50.5-point total, so there should be plenty of yards to be had. Mahomes' passing prop is 310.5, a total he's gone over in five straight games, and if you just wanted to pair that with the yardage props then you'll end up at +339.
Austin Ekeler over 39.5 receiving yards, Calvin Ridley over 74.5 receiving yards and Chargers moneyline (+618)
FanDuel is also offering an Ekeler 50+ receiving yards and Chargers win prop for +340, but there's more we can get here if we like that line of thinking. Ekeler's receiving yards prop feels quite low for a player who has 25 targets in the last two games, a span that saw him accumulate 44 and 36 receiving yards, respectively, especially since he's facing a defense that's been better against the run than the pass. Meanwhile, Ridley could be very busy because Julio Jones has been ruled out, as he had 110, 136 and 50 yards in the three games Jones didn't play in this year, respectively. The Chargers moneyline is the kicker here, as they are actually 1.5-point home underdogs, so if you like the Falcons side then you can replace the Chargers, which changes the odds to +557.
Justin Jefferson over 73.5 receiving yards, Adam Tielen over 71.5 receiving yards and Buccaneers moneyline (+398)
The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most passing yards and the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, which works well for the Vikings' top pass catchers, who have been steady accumulators and could get even more work this week because Tampa Bay is so good against the run. Despite expecting good yardage totals from their wide receivers, the Vikings are still 6.5-point road underdogs, which is why we'll use the Buccaneers moneyline. There was some hope that we'd get a good Chris Godwin yardage prop if Mike Evans was out, but both will play and FanDuel isn't even offering anything on the two at this point anyway. If you want to add Kirk Cousins going over 269.5 then your odds increase to +494.
Chris Carson over 58.5 rushing yards, DK Metcalf over 78.5 receiving yards and Tyler Lockett over 64.5 receiving yards (+722)
The Seahawks are 13.5-point home favorites against the winless Jets, who have been better against the run than the pass this season, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per carry (4.07) but also the third-most total receiving yards to wide receivers. Carson has been getting a steady increase in work, and with Seattle likely to be ahead and needing to run the game out, Carson should have enough opportunities to hit his rushing prop. Of course, that should come after Metcalf and Lockett go over their props since the Jets can't stop anyone, allowing over 165 receiving yards to wideouts in six straight games. I definitely considered adding Sam Darnold over 225.5 passing yards because the Jets will have to throw to get back in the game and the Seahawks have given up plenty of yards through the air this season, but there's little confidence in that one even though it pays +1597.
