This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
We've reached the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, often regarded as the best weekend on the NFL calendar. FanDuel has contests with significant prize pools on both Saturday and Sunday, the former of which will be the topic of this article.
The Texans travel to Baltimore to kick off the weekend as 9.5-point underdogs. The game has a 43.5-point total, with the Ravens having an implied team total of 26.5 and the Texans 17. The primetime game features the 49ers plating host to the Packers. The 49ers are also 9.5-point favorites, though the game has a more substantial game total of 50.5. That gives them a massive implied total of 30 and 20.5 for the Packers.
Quarterback
It's no surprise that Lamar Jackson ($8,700) is the highest-priced quarterback on the slate thanks to his rushing upside, but the Texans' defense has progressively improved against the quarterback as the season has continued. On the other hand, Jackson has at least 30 FD points in three of his last 10 games. The other quarterbacks on the slate have combined to post one such performance. The choice will come down to price, so for those who opt to roster Jackson, there will be tough roster choices to make in several other spots.
The other top choice would be Brock Purdy ($7,800). He doesn't have the same ceiling as Jackson, but he closed the season by hitting at least 22 FD points in five of his last nine games. He has a matchup against the Packers (a soft defense relative to the remaining teams) in his favor and a safe floor.
Purdy is in the same price range as both Jordan Love ($7,400) and C.J. Stroud ($7,200), so there's not a significant amount to be gained by paying down farther than Purdy, except in large-field contests. Love is the preferred option for those who want to bypass the two top options, primarily based on projected game environment.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($10,800) stands alone in terms of price point and production at the position, but allocating 18 percent of the salary to him means he'll need a ceiling performance to pay off. The Packers' defense has been maligned at points this season, but the run defense has tightened up significantly in recent weeks, allowing less than four yards per carry in three of the last four games. They've also given up the fewest receiving yards to running backs of any team on Saturday's slate. I'd rather build my rosters a different way, but it goes without saying that McCaffrey can always be the needed piece on a roster — particularly on such a small slate.
Aaron Jones ($7,400) is the other intriguing back in the upper levels of the price range. He's topped 20 carries and 100 rushing yards four consecutive weeks. AJ Dillon ($5,100) appears to be trending toward a return, which introduces some risk he cuts into Jones's volume. It's difficult to see the Packers changing their formula, however, after so much success lately.
Devin Singletary ($6,400) is somewhere between the top tier of backs and a value option. He has a clear hold on the work out of Houston's backfield and has reliably turned in double-digit FD point performances across the second half of the season. There's a viable path to him matching Jones in production, and he has the softer (relatively) matchup of the two.
Singletary is the cheapest back with safe volume, but Justice Hill ($5,300) is a cheaper option. He's valuable due to his involvement as a receiver (at least three receptions in his last three games) and needs to find the end zone to return a viable score. That's not particularly likely, but he's the punt option available.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins ($8,700) is the highest-priced wide receiver. He popped several spike weeks in the second half of the season (at least 19 FD points in four of his last seven games) and his volume should be safe with Noah Brown (shoulder) joining Tank Dell on IR. The matchup isn't great, but it's not insurmountable, particularly with Marlon Humphrey (calf) out. From a macro perspective, he splits the difference in price between Jones and McCaffrey. McCaffrey has a better floor, but Collins is capable of matching his ceiling.
It's worth mentioning the 49ers wide receivers together. Brandon Aiyuk ($7,900) plays the more traditional alpha role and is thus a safer bet to return 2x his price tag. However, he's topped 20 FD points only three times this season. Deebo Samuel ($8,300) is more volatile, but he has ceiling thanks to his big-play ability once the ball is in his hands. He has less than eight FD points five times this season, but he's reached at least 19 six times. The Packers' secondary is vulnerable relative to the remaining defenses. Given that, the preferred option between the duo comes down to how risky the rest of the roster is. Stacking Purdy-Aiyuk-Samuel is also viable, but would require a minimum of 60 combined points to pay off.
Zay Flowers ($7,000) is a strong alternative to the San Francisco duo, as he's put up at least 17 FD points in four of his last five games. He's scored a touchdown in all four of those games, but he's also combined to see 34 targets. That's guaranteed volume that neither Aiyuk or Samuel can count on, and he comes at a price discount.
There's not much in the middle class of the position. Throwing a dart at a Packers wide receiver could work, but trying to predict volume in that offense and production has been very difficult.
Instead, I'd rather turn to a secondary option on the Texans' offense now that they'll be without two of their top pass catchers (Tank Dell (leg) and Brown). John Metchie ($5,000) looks to be the best bet. He was on the field for a season-high 77 percent of snaps in the wild-card round. Admittedly, he ran just 14 routes, but that likely had to do with game script, as Stroud attempted only five passes in the second half of Houston's big win over Cleveland. It will be necessary to pay down on this slate in at least one spot, and Metchie is a good bet.
Tight End
Playing in the middle tiers of tight end is the best route on paper, with both starters in the Baltimore-Houston matchup standing out. Even excluding David Njoku's strong performance in the wild-card round, the Texans allowed the most targets to tight ends this season. With Mark Andrews (ankle) unlikely to play, the door is open for Isaiah Likely ($5,500) to deliver a big game. There's a decent chance that the Jackson-Flowers-Likely trio scores comparably to the San Francisco group and checks in $2,800 cheaper.
The available targets in Houston also make Dalton Schultz ($5,800) intriguing. He's had at least five targets in three of his last five games (only two last week due to game script) and has double-digit FD points seven times this season.
Defense/Special Teams
The Ravens ($4,300) are the pretty obvious play. They lead the league in both sacks per game and turnovers forced. Those are the keys to big defensive scores. The Texans have the lowest implied total of the slate, so on paper, there isn't much to not like.
Looking at the underdogs, I'd prefer the Texans ($3,400) as they have the better track record of forcing turnovers this season.
