This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
Of course you're used to reading Kevin Payne for this column, but I've been called off the bench to pinch hit, but look for Kevin to return to action in Week 16. I'll try to maintain the high standard that Kevin brings each week.
This week has more landmines than usual, due to the massive COVID outbreak that's gripped the NFL. Between the time you read this article and when gameday inactives are posted, be sure to check not only which skill-position players are ruled in or out, but also be sure to look for ancillary injuries to related players, such as offensive linemen and key defensive players. Depending upon the late status of players, situations and player values could change sharply.
QUARTERBACK
Many of the top quaretbacks have uncertainty this week, as four typically strong players (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers) are dealing with legitimate injuries that could either force them to miss the game or lower their upside. Of the remaining QBs, the one with the best balance of floor and upside is Kyler Murray ($8,800), as he faces a Detroit defense that's bottom three against the pass, and they have the fifth-worst pressure rate. Throw in the fact that James Conner (ankle) is banged up and Chase Edmonds (ankle) hasn't played in five weeks, and even without DeAndre Hopkins (knee), Murray will likely have to put the offense on his back. If Murray is too pricey, this is a great week to consider Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400), as Miami's top-three running backs have spent the week on the COVID list, and the Dolphins are playing at home against the Jets who have the worst pass defense in the league, so the Dolphins' game plan may revolve around the pass.
However, if you're looking to save some money in GPPs, Davis Mills ($6,800) has thrown for at least 310 yards in three of his five starts, and he faces a Jaguars defense that's second-worst against the pass, but they are solid against the run, so Mills may be needed to throw often. Also, if Jalen Hurts is inactive, Gardner Minshew ($6,200) is taking on a Washington defense that's excellent against the run but bottom six against the pass, so he may be forced to air it out.
RUNNING BACK
It's a good week to find options at different price points, starting out with Joe Mixon ($8,300), who'll be up against a Denver defense that's been improving against the pass but is a bottom-seven unit against the run. Not only should he see a lot of work on the ground, but the Broncos have struggled against pass-catching backs, giving Mixon added upside. Another top option is James Robinson ($6,300), because he's facing a Texans defense that's been top eight against the pass, but they're one of the weaker run defenses in the league, so a run-heavy approach makes sense. Most importantly, Urban Meyer is gone, and it would be surprising if interim coach Darrell Bevell didn't finally give Robinson the workload he should've been seeing all season.
Going a bit toward the less-expensive side, D'Onta Foreman ($5,800) will be facing a Steelers defense that has seen their run defense implode this season, and in a game that'll likely be low scoring, he could see heavier usage than usual. Although Jeff Wilson ($5,800) hasn't been nearly as effective as he was last year, if Elijah Mitchell (concussion/knee) is forced to miss another game, Wilson could see much better results than he's posted recently, against the Falcons' bottom-10 run defense. It's a game in which the 49ers could easily play with a big lead and become conservative. Finally, Michael Carter ($5,900) (ankle) is expected to come off of injured reserve after averaging 19 touches in his last four games, and although Miami has been middling against the run, they've been one of the worst defenses against receiving backs, which plays right into Carter's hands.
WIDE RECEIVER
For those who choose to spend up on Murray, a bonus is that his stacking options are very affordable. With Hopkins out of action, both A.J. Green ($5,700) and Christian Kirk ($6,000) could be in line for elevated target shares, and each has been productive when given opportunities this year. And again, they're facing the Lions, so getting open shouldn't be a problem for either.
Of the remaining options, Diontae Johnson ($7,200) is facing a Tennessee defense that's likely to get quick presure on Ben Roethlisberger, and that almost ensures Johnson will see double-digit targets (per usual) against the Titans corners, who are unlikely to slow down Johnson in the short area of the field where he excels. Another option is Tee Higgins ($6,800) who's been on fire the last three weeks. He'll be facing the Broncos, a defense that's great at limiting downfield passing (Ja'Marr Chase's role) but struggles against big-bodied receivers in the middle of the field. And for those who are taking a shot on Davis Mills, Brandin Cooks ($6,900) is coming off a 100-yard game as Mills' alpha receiver, and he's facing a Jaguars defense that hasn't been able to slow down high-end WRs.
Finally, if Jaylen Waddle (COVID-19) is ruled out, DeVante Parker ($5,800) could see double-digit targets in a matchup against an overmatched Jets secondary. In the same game, a GPP-only option is Braxton Berrios ($5,300) who played 41 percent of the snaps, leading to 10 targets last week, and he'll face a Miami defense that is weaker defending interior WRs than those on the outside.
TIGHT END
If the salary cap allows, riding the incredible two-week hot streak of George Kittle ($7,800) against a Falcons defense that should have no answer for his run after the catch ability makes plenty of sense. Otherwise, going back to Murray stacks, adding Zach Ertz ($5300) and one of the WRs could be profitable, as Detroit is a bottom-10 unit against TEs.
Going to the bargain bin, Ricky Seals-Jones ($4,500) should be fully recovered from his injuries, and in a full-time role earlier in the year, he was playing every snap and running a high number of routes. Against the Eagles, he should have plenty of room to operate, as they've struggled to contain TEs. If you're saving money with Davis Mills, Brevin Jordan ($4,900) has scored twice in three games, and Jordan has a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that's bottom eight against TEs.
DEFENSE
Not only is Detroit a limited offense, but they'll be without T.J. Hockenson (hand) and likely D'Andre Swift (shoulder), so the Cardinals ($4,800) who should be playing with a lead, and will be sure to blitz Jared Goff heavily. Another expensive option is the Cowboys ($4,600) who have their top-three pass rushers healthy, and they're facing a Giants offense that could be with a backup QB behind their weak offensive line. If you're spending down, the Bengals ($3,400) have been solid against the run and the pass, and will be taking on a Denver offense that, if forced to play from behind, is capable of imploding.
