Exploiting the Matchups: Week 8 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Written by

Updated on October 26, 2023 5:03PM EST

We're going from six teams on bye last week to none this week, followed by four apiece in Weeks 9-11. That likely means a higher-scoring fantasy slate this weekend, though perhaps not relative to previous years.

We're nearly halfway through the season and currently on pace for the lowest-scoring NFL campaign (21.7 points per team game) since 2017. If we include last year, it's been the lowest-scoring multi-year stretch since the late aughts. And that's in spite of kickers improving over time; many stats like yards per play (5.2) and net yards per pass attempt (6.0) have hit 15-year lows.

I don't normally worry about this kind of thing too much in-season, as we compare our fantasy totals to those from other players/teams in the same low-scoring environment, not to stats from 2018-21 (when scoring ranged from 23-to-25 points per team game). Many of us have already adjusted, knowingly or unknowingly, with standards for what constitutes a strong/acceptable fantasy score being somewhat lower than what we'd grown used to before last year.

Looking beyond this season, I expect scoring to rebound back towards 23-24 ppg, though it might not happen until 2025-26. It's been years since there was a meaningful change in rules/enforcement to benefit defenses, and I've never bought into the popular narrative that increased use of two-deep-safety looks is behind the decrease in scoring. Those looks have long been popular, and most of them were "solved" (so much as that's possible) years ago by NFL coordinators and Madden

I actually think it's more likely that coverages utilizing post-snap adjustments are causing problems for some offenses, in much the same way that "option" routes contributed to a higher-scoring environment when teams started using them more the past decade. Quantifying this impact is impossible, of course, just like it's nearly impossible to prove that the two-deep stuff is what's limiting scoring.

Really, I think the bigger "problem" is a temporary dip in QB talent. We had a stretch there in the late 2019s and early 2020s where a bunch of long-time starters declined and then retired and weren't replaced by enough talented young guys. Ben Gretch of Stealing Signals made this argument in one of his recent email newsletters — which are essentially the only fantasy content I read besides Mario Puig and John McKechnie's draft/college coverage here on RotoWire, FWIW.

The good news for those who like shootouts is that we got a promising rookie QB class in 2023 and have another on the way in 2024. There's also not much reason to expect decline from the current crop of high-level starters; unlike six or seven years ago, the group is dominated by QBs in their mid-or-late 20s. The older starters right now are guys like Russell Wilson (already declined) or Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr (never that good in the first place), not Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, etc.

As for this year, there's not much reason to expect a scoring rebound. Point totals usually drop later in the season, and a rough injury year for QBs doesn't seem to be getting much better. As a Ravens fan, I've been trained (brainwashed?) to enjoy low-scoring football. Go figure that my favorite team finally has a modern, prolific offense right when the rest of the league seems to be struggling.

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

C.J. Stroud (at CAR) — 35% started

Start Over — Geno Smith (vs. CLE), Jordan Love (vs. MIN), Kirk Cousins (at GB)

A potential absence for Robert Woods (foot) is small potatoes compared to the injury issues on Carolina's defense. The Panthers gave up seven total TDs to Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa in their final two games before a Week 7 bye, and they've still got LB Frankie Luvu (hip) and starting safeties Vonn Bell (quad) and Xavier Woods (hamstring) listed on the injury report after the layoff. That's on top of long-term absences for LB Shaq Thompson (leg) and DB Jeremy Chinn (quad), potentially leaving Carolina woefully thin over the middle of the field. Stroud can take advantage by targeting WR Nico Collins on in-breaking routes and TE Dalton Schultz on seam throws.

Other Good Matchups: Lamar Jackson (at ARI), Jared Goff (vs. LV), Mac Jones (at MIA) Tyson Bagent (at LAC)

Running Backs 👍

Alexander Mattison (at GB) — 46% started

Start Over — Brian Robinson (vs. PHI), D'Onta Foreman (at LAC), Jaylen Warren (vs. JAX)

The risk here is fairly obvious after Cam Akers took on an increased role last week, ultimately finishing with 37 percent of snaps and two more carries than Mattison (10-8) in an upset win over San Francisco. Even so, Mattison shouldn't be completely discarded as a Week 8 fantasy option, as he still got a majority of the playing time Monday and now faces a banged-up Green Bay defense that's given up the third most fantasy points to running backs. Only the Broncos and Panthers have allowed more rushing yards per game, and the list of RBs who had their season-best fantasy total against Green Bay includes Roschon Johnson (Week 1), Bijan Robinson (Week 2), David Montgomery (Week 4) and Javone Williams (Week 7). This past Sunday was especially unimpressive with Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine combining for 137 rushing yards and 46 receiving yards in a Denver win over Green Bay.

Gus Edwards (vs. ARI) — 37% started

Start Over — Kareem Hunt (at SEA), Alexander Mattison (at GB), Miles Sanders (vs. HOU)

Edwards has solidified himself ahead of Justice Hill the past few weeks and just had his best game of the year (144 total yards and a TD) ahead of a matchup with the weakling Cardinals. Only three teams have allowed more fantasy points to RBs this year and only seven have allowed more rushing yards per game (130.7). Game script could also work in Edwards' favor with the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown after last week's dismantling of the Lions.

Other Good Matchups: Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. LV), Isiah Pacheco (at DEN), Dameon Pierce & Devin Singletary (at CAR), Miles Sanders & Chuba Hubbard (vs. HOU),

Wide Receivers 👍

Zay Flowers (at ARI) — 62% started

Start Over — Garrett Wilson (at NYG), Calvin Ridley (at PIT), Drake London (at TEN)

Flowers has already established himself as a solid WR3 for fantasy, scoring between eight and 18 PPR points each week despite netting only one TD on 39 receptions. This could be the matchup where he takes it a step further, facing an Arizona defense that fields arguably the worst CB group in the league and has given up the sixth-most fantasy points and third-most yards per target (9.7) to wide receivers. Note that Flowers and Mark Andrews rarely come off the field, while the rest of Baltimore's skill-position players rotate quite a bit.

Kendrick Bourne (at MIA) — 14% started

Start Over — Courtland Sutton (vs. KC), Rashee Rice (at DEN), Romeo Doubs (vs. MIN)

I call him Bourne Again because he seems to have faded in and out of fantasy relevance at least a handful of times the past 3-4 years. The past couple weeks were perhaps his most promising stretch of play yet, with Bourne playing nearly every snap for the Patriots and catching 16 of 18 targets for 152 yards and a touchdown. He'll now face a Miami defense that's both struggling and banged up in the secondary, with CB Xavien Howard (groin) having missed the loss to Philadelphia and S Jevon Holland (concussion) making an early exit. The Dolphins may still have an elite secondary come December/January, but that's once Howard and Holland are healthy and Jalen Ramsey (knee) has been activated from injured reserve.

Other Good Matchups: Christian Kirk (at PIT), DeVonta Smith (at WAS), Drake London (at TEN), Nico Collins (at CAR), Josh Downs (vs. NO), Odell Beckham (vs. ARI), Demario Douglas (at MIA).

Tight Ends 👍

Sam LaPorta (vs. LV) — 69% started

Start Over — Evan Engram (at PIT), Kyle Pitts (at TEN), Dalton Kincaid (vs. TB)

Any thought of benching LaPorta after back-to-back mediocre outings should be done away with. He's back home in the dome this week and no longer on the injury report due to a calf injury, and even his 'dip' the past two games came with an impressive total of 18 targets. The Lions also seem a bit more aggressive throwing the ball without David Montgomery, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday due to his lingering rib injury. LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs all should get plenty of volume against a lousy Raiders defense come Monday.

Other Good Matchups: Dalton Schultz (at CAR), Jake Ferguson (vs. LAR)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

Matthew Stafford (at DAL) — 34% started

Start Instead — Geno Smith (vs. CLE), C.J. Stroud (at CAR), Jordan Love (vs. MIN)

As well as he's played this year, Stafford still hasn't sniffed 20 fantasy points, maxing out at 17.2 thanks to a complete lack of rushing stats and the Rams' struggles in the red zone. And while his consistently mediocre totals aren't the worst thing if you're using him as a QB2, there's also an ugly floor scenario this week as the Rams head to Dallas to face an elite defense coming out of a bye. The Cowboys have allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to QBs while registering as many interceptions (eight) as TD passes allowed, with Brock Purdy in Week 5 being the only signal-caller to give them trouble so far.

Other Tough Matchups: Joe Burrow (at SF), Russell Wilson (vs. KC), Tyrod Taylor (vs. NYJ)

Running Backs 👎

Derrick Henry (vs. ATL) — 69% started

Start Instead — Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. LV), Jonathan Taylor (vs. NO), Joe Mixon (at SF)

Those of you with stacked RB groups might consider benching Henry for the first time this year. Tennessee's QB situation spells trouble for the offense as a whole, and all of Henry's volume/counting stats are down considerably from the past two seasons (not to mention his 2019-20 peak). He's only a mid-range RB2 for Week 8, facing an Atlanta defense that ranks second in fantasy points allowed to RBs, first in PFF run-defense grade, ninth in YPC allowed (3.7) and eighth in rushing yards allowed (95.3 per game). No RB has scored a rushing TD against the Falcons this year, and Jahmyr Gibbs (Week 3) was the only lead back to top 4.0 YPC (barely) or 66 rushing yards in his matchup with Atlanta.

Brian Robinson (vs. PHI) — 40% started

Start Instead — Miles Sanders (vs. HOU), Jaylen Warren (vs. JAX), AJ Dillon (vs. MIN)

If you're starting Robinson this week you're either desperate or not paying attention. In addition to the lack of production this year, he got just one more carry than Chris Rodriguez last week, with the rookie getting the final two totes on Washington's almost-game-tying drive. And if that's not bad enough, the Commanders now face an Eagles defense that's allowed the fewest points in the league to running backs. There's nothing to like here; playing Robinson basically means praying for a goal-line touchdown.

Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon (at SF), Kenneth Walker (vs. CLE), Darrell Henderson & Royce Freeman (at DAL)

Wide Receivers 👎

Amari Cooper (at SEA) — 64% started

Start Instead — Adam Thielen (vs. HOU), Terry McLaurin (vs. PHI), Garrett Wilson (at NYG)

This is probably the third time I've warned readers to ignore Seattle's DvP stats for wide receivers. The massive production they allowed in September was largely due to game script / possession stats in any case, and the secondary's real-life performance has taken a big step forward with better health the past month. I now view the Seahawks as a subpar matchup for WRs, even though they've allowed the third most points to the position this season. Don't expect much from Cooper, who has caught only six of his 16 targets from QB PJ Walker so far.

Jerry Jeudy (vs. KC) — 20% started

Start Instead — Kendrick Bourne (at MIA), Jahan Dotson (vs. PHI), Josh Downs (vs. NO)

Jeudy is coming off a 5-for-5 effort last week against Green Bay but still hasn't scored a TD or seen more than seven targets in a game all season. The ceiling seems to be gone, and we saw the floor just two weeks ago (3-14-) in a matchup with this same Chiefs defense. The problem, apart from Kansas City playing excellent defense overall this year, is that second-year corner Trent McDuffie has become one of the top slot guardians in the league. Jeudy plays the perimeter at times but still handles a majority of the slot work when Denver goes three-wide.

Other Tough Matchups: DeAndre Hopkins (vs. ATL), Tyler Lockett (vs. CLE, hamstring), Rondale Moore (vs. BAL), Jalin Hyatt & Darius Slayton (vs. NYJ), Quentin Johnston (vs. CHI), Elijah Moore (at SEA)

Tight Ends 👎

David Njoku (at SEA) — 31% started

Start Instead — Dalton Kincaid (vs. TB), Dalton Schultz (at CAR), Jake Ferguson (vs. LAR)

I actually just traded for Njoku in a dynasty league but not because I'm expecting much of anything this week. He'll catch passes from interception-machine PJ Walker for a third straight week, and while Njoku finally had his first 50-yard game of the season in last week's win over Indianapolis, it took him nine targets to (barely) get there. Now he'll face a Seattle defense that's given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to his position and generally has been excellent against the pass since the start of October. The Seahawks' last three opponents — NYG, CIN, ARZ — each fell well shy of 200 passing yards, a mark that Walker probably won't breach this Sunday unless he piles on empty stats in garbage time.