Exploiting the Matchups: Week 12 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

I'm on a tight schedule this week with three Thursday games for Thanksgiving, so instead of an actual intro you're just getting my pie rankings:

1. Anything that's actually a cheesecake (my sister does a pumpkin-hazelnut cheesecake thing)
2. Pecan pie 
3. Sweet potato pie
4. Derby pie (basically a huge, bourbon-flavored chocolate chip & walnut cookie)
5. Blackberry or Blueberry pie
6. Pumpkin pie
7. Apple pie

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Trevor Lawrence (at HOU) — 57% started

Start Over — Tua Tagovailoa (at NYJ), Justin Fields (at MIN)

Lawrence just put up by far his best fantasy score (32.2) of the season, throwing for two TDs and running for two others in a blowout win over Tennessee. We obviously can't expect that again, but it was also fluky that he had no rushing scores from 223 yards prior to last week. Against the Texans he can have a big game without doing much on the ground, as Houston has given up the eight most fantasy points to QBs and is looking at another week without LB Denzel Perryman (suspension) or S Jimmie Ward (hamstring). Don't be surprised if the Texans end up in a shootout for a third time in four weeks.

• Other Good Matchups: Dak Prescott (vs. WAS),  Jordan Love (at DET), Gardner Minshew (vs. TB), 

Running Backs 👍

• Rhamondre Stevenson (at NYG) — 46% started

Start Over — Jerome Ford (at DEN), Alexander Mattison (vs. CHI), Najee Harris (at CIN)

The trick with Stevenson this year has been avoiding him when the Patriots get blown out. His three worst PPR totals of the season coincide with New England's three losses by multiple scores. Stevenson has been busy and (mostly) effective when the Pats are competitive, including back-to-back games with over 100 total yards in close losses prior to a Week 11 bye. He should again be the centerpiece of a struggling offense this Sunday in one of the more winnable games on New England's schedule.

• Keaton Mitchell (at LAC) — 18% started

Start Over — Kareem Hunt (at DEN), Chuba Hubbard (at TEN), Ty Chandler (vs. CHI)

Mitchell took on a larger role last Thursday against the Bengals — subbing in frequently starting in the first quarter — and the Ravens didn't get too far away from him even after his first two carries got stuffed behind the line. The rookie rebounded later with a 21-yard carry, an eight-yard catch and a pair of five -yard runs, ultimately finishing with nine touches for 41 yards on a career-high 36 percent of snaps. Mitchell isn't going to push a healthy Gus Edwards out of the picture anytime soon, but 30-to-40 percent of this backfield should be enough for a decent point total against the Chargers' miserable defense. Only six teams have given up more fantasy points to running backs, and things aren't likely to get better soon with OLB Joey Bosa (foot) hitting injured reserve this week.

• Other Good Matchups: Isiah Pacheco (at LV), Rachaad White (at IND), Tony Pollard (vs. WAS) Derrick Henry (vs. CAR), Gus Edwards (at LAC), Kyren Williams (at ARI), Jaylen Warren & Najee Harris (at CIN)

Wide Receivers 👍

• Michael Pittman (vs. TB) — 54% started

Start Over — Tyler Lockett (vs. SF), Christian Kirk (at HOU), Amari Cooper (at DEN), Calvin Ridley (at HOU)

Wide receivers have run circles around the Bucs for the past month, in part because top corner Carlton Davis (hip) can't stay healthy. He made another early exit this past Sunday at San Francisco, with CB Jamel Dean (ankle) and LB Lavonte David (groin) also unable to finish the game. The Bucs already rank 30th in NY/A (6.9) and 29th in PPR points allowed to wide receivers, and now they face the prospect of playing without both starting corners for the next week or three. Pittman and Josh Downs both are candidates to take advantage, though Jonathan Taylor figures to be the offensive centerpiece even if his matchup looks a bit tougher on paper (Tampa ranks fifth at 3.7 YPC allowed).

• WR Nico Collins (vs. JAX) — 40% started

Start Over — Jordan Addison (vs. CHI), Chris Godwin (at IND), Courtland Sutton (vs. CLE)

With CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) out the past couple weeks and still not practicing, the Jags mostly have used 2022 seventh-round pick Montaric Brown at right cornerback — the spot Collins is lined up across from about half the time. Tank Dell gets more run in the slot and on the quarterback's right-hand side, which means he'll likely see more of veteran corners Darious Williams and Tre Herndon. The rookie remains the best play among Houston wideouts in light of his recent production, but Collins isn't far behind this week with the relative matchup advantage, especially if fellow big-WR Noah Brown (knee) is out for a second straight game.

• Other Good Matchups: DJ Moore (at MIN), Nico Collins (vs. JAX), Adam Thielen (at TEN), A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith (vs. BUF) Zay Flowers (at LAC), Josh Downs (vs. TB), Demario Douglas (at NYG), Brandin Cooks (vs. WAS), Khalil Shakir (at PHI)

Tight Ends 👍

• Jake Ferguson (vs. WAS) — 58% started

Start Over — David Njoku (at DEN), Cole Kmet (at MIN), Logan Thomas (at DAL)

Wide receivers have done most of the damage against Washington's broken defense, but there's really nothing the Commanders do well, especially since trading DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Their top remaining end is James Smith-Williams, who's out this week with a hamstring injury and joined by rookie corner Emmanuel Forbes (elbow). Dak Prescott should throw for enough yards/TDs to boost one of his secondary targets to a big day, be it Ferguson or Brandin Cooks. Both are strong plays this week, and even Jalen Tolbert is worth considering if you're desperate for a WR or FLEX in a deep league.

• Other Good Matchups: Evan Engram (at HOU), Kyle Pitts & Jonnu Smith (vs. NO), Isaiah Likely (at LAC)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Tua Tagovailoa (at NYJ) — 61% started

Start Instead — Dak Prescott (vs. WAS), C.J. Stroud (vs. JAX)

A complete lack of rushing production (39 yards, zero TDs) means Tagovailoa needs truly great passing games in order to put up big fantasy scores. He's provided a nice floor with at least 11.3 fantasy points every week so far, but he hasn't reached 23 in a game since September and has been merely average against good defenses. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts are the only QBs to score 20-plus this year against the Jets, with Gang Green ranking fifth in NY/A (5.2) while recording nearly as many interceptions (10) as TD passes allowed (12). Tagovailoa should do enough for Miami to get the win but probably isn't headed for one of his days with eight-plus yards per attempt and three or four TDs.

• Other Tough Matchups: Justin Herbert (vs. BAL), Sam Howell (at DAL), Russell Wilson (vs. CLE), Geno Smith / Drew Lock (vs. SF) 

Running Backs 👎

• James Cook (at PHI) — 57% started

Start Instead — Rhamondre Stevenson (at NYG) Gus Edwards (at LAC), Jaylen Warren (at CIN)

Cook is coming off back-to-back games with over 100 total yards, spearheading what's quietly the best Buffalo rushing attack of the Josh Allen era. The problem is that it's a divide-and-conquer approach, with Latavius Murray (and now Ty Johnson) also involved... in addition to Allen being the de facto goal-line back. Two of Cook's three smallest snap shares came the past two weeks (46 percent both times) and the committee situation will prove more problematic against an Eagles defense that's given up the fewest fantasy points in the league to running backs. Breece Hall is the only RB to reach 15 PPR points against Philly this year, and Isiah Pacheco just became the first to crack 60 rushing yards.

• Khalil Herbert (at MIN) — 13% started

Start Instead — Alexander Mattison (vs. CHI), AJ Dillon (at DET)

The Vikings continue to defend the run much better than the pass, and they've given up the 11th fewest fantasy points to RBs despite playing mediocre defense overall. Any appeal for Herbert here requires D'Onta Foreman (ankle) to miss the game, as we're otherwise looking at a four-headed rushing attack that also includes QB Justin Fields and rookie RB Roschon Johnson. Maybe that happens, but even if it does we might not know in time with the Vikings and Bears playing Monday night.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jonathan Taylor (vs. TB), Brian Robinson (at DAL), Tyler Allgeier (vs. NO)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Terry McLaurin (at DAL) — 64% started

Start Instead — DeAndre Hopkins (vs. CAR), Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA), Christian Kirk (at HOU)

With all 32 teams in action, it's one of those weeks that allows many fantasy managers to consider benching long-time-fantasy-starters like McLaurin and Amari Cooper. The latter is looking at a Patrick Surtain shadow, while the former lines up in the slot just 13 percent of the time and thus figures to run the vast majority of his routes lined up across from excellent Dallas cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland. The floor is quite low from Washington's passing game in general with Sam Howell on the road against a top defense.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jaylen Waddle (at NYJ), Amari Cooper (at DEN), Courtland Sutton & Jerry Jeudy (vs. CLE) Jahan Dotson (at DAL), Jakobi Meyers (vs. KC)

Tight Ends 👎

• Tyler Higbee (at ARZ) — 13% started

Start Instead — Pat Freiermuth (at CIN), Isaiah Likely (at LAC), Cade Otton (at IND)

With Matthew Stafford healthy(ish) and the Rams' wide receivers banged up, Higbee might seem more appealing than usual at first glance, especially against a defense that's been bad overall. The problem is that we don't know if Cooper Kupp (ankle) or Puka Nacua (shoulder) actually will end up missing the game, which is quite important given Higbee's measly 11.8 percent target share in six contests since Kupp returned from IR. The Cardinals also have given up surprisingly few fantasy points to tight ends (sixth least) despite facing Darren Waller, Jake Ferguson, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Kyle Pitts and Dalton Schultz so far. That's partially because their safeties are better than their cornerbacks and QBs have been able to pick on the perimeter of Arizona's defense.

• Other Tough Matchups: Michael Mayer (vs. KC)

Week 6 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (Under 60 Percent Rostered)

QB Jordan Love (at DET)

RB Keaton Mitchell (at LAC)

RB Ty Chandler (vs. CHI)

WR Josh Downs (vs. TB)

WR Brandin Cooks (vs. WAS)

WR Rashid Shaheed (at ATL)

TE Pat Freiermuth (at CIN)

K Brandon McManus (at HOU)

D/ST Lions (vs. GB)

For Medium-depth Leagues (Under 35 Percent Rostered)

QB Gardner Minshew (vs. TB)

RB Tyjae Spears (vs. CAR)

RB Roschon Johnson (at MIN)

WR Demario Douglas (at NYG)

WR K.J. Osborn (vs. CHI)

TE Jonnu Smith (vs. NO)

TE Cade Otton (at IND)

K Matt Gay (vs. TB)

D/ST Titans (vs. CAR)

D/ST Vikings (vs. CHI)

For Deep Leagues (Under 15 Percent Rostered)

QB Jake Browning (vs. PIT)

RB Jeff Wilson (at NYJ)

RB Rico Dowdle (vs. WAS)

WR Khalil Shakir (at PHI)

WR Justin Watson (at LV)

WR Greg Dortch (vs. LAR)

TE Juwan Johnson (at ATL)

K Blake Grupe (at ATL)

K Matt Prater (vs. LAR)

D/ST Colts (vs. TB)

D/ST Giants (vs. NE)