Exploiting the Matchups: NFL Week 4 Start/Sit and Fantasy Streamers

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start percentage comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

Start/Upgrade 👍

Quarterbacks 👍

• Kirk Cousins — 64% started

Start Over — Trevor Lawrence (vs. ATL), Joe Burrow (at TEN), Dak Prescott (vs. NE)

While he won't maintain his current average of 46 attempts per game, Cousins might realistically settle in around 40 on a team with no defense, an inconsistent running game and fantastic pass catchers. Through three games he's been able to combine the volume he got under Kevin O'Connell last year (and then some) with per-pass efficiency numbers that look more like what he did for the Zimmer/Kubiak teams. Even if it's partially matchup-based and he loses both volume and efficiency as the year moves along, Cousins shouldn't have much trouble reaching 5,000 yards so long as he stays healthy. 

As for this week, he'll face a Carolina defense that's missing top corner Jaycee Horn (IR - hamstring) and starting free safety Xavier Woods (hamstring) from a secondary that wasn't all that intimidating in the first place.

• Other Good Matchups: Justin Fields (vs. DEN), Daniel Jones (vs. SEA), Russell Wilson (at CHI), Bryce Young (vs. MIN)

Running Backs 👍

• Zack Moss (vs. LAR) — 71% started

Start Over — Rhamondre Stevenson (at DAL), James Cook (vs. MIA), Raheem Mostert (at BUF)

Moss is coming off back-to-back games with more than 55 snaps and 20 PPR points, benefitting from a situation in which he's the only RB the coaching staff trusts. There are only six or seven RBs that should be started ahead of him until that changes — which might be next week, granted — and yet 15 guys are being started in a higher percentage of Yahoo lineups. Moss shouldn't have too much trouble here, as the Rams haven't faced many targets to RBs (13) but are giving up the seventh most yards per carry (4.63).

• De'Von Achane — 37% started

Start Over — Breece Hall (vs. KC), Brian Robinson (at PHI), AJ Dillon (vs. DET)

I'm going off-brand here and jumping into the fire instead of throwing water on it. Achane won't get 20 touches or 200 yards again, but he did play nearly half of Miami's snaps before halftime last week, signaling a meaningful role change that wasn't just a product of the game being an absurd blowout. He's probably looking at something more like 10 touches this week, and a trip to Buffalo comes with concerns regarding efficiency. Achane should manage to shut down those concerns, in part because he's lightning-fast and playing in a brilliant offense and in part because run defense has often been the relative weakness of Sean McDermott's well-rounded Buffalo teams. My guess here? 11 touches for 67 yards and a TD.

• Other Good Matchups: Alexander Mattison (at CAR), Dameon Pierce (vs. PIT), Javonte Williams (at CHI), Khalil Herbert & Roschon Johnson (vs. DEN), Austin Ekeler or Joshua Kelley (vs. LV)

Wide Receivers 👍

• George Pickens (at HOU) — 50% started

Start Over — Gabe Davis (vs. MIA), Christian Kirk (vs. ATL), DJ Moore (vs. DEN)

Pickens is always a tough read for me, because I'm a huge fan of the wide receiver but terrified of his quarterback. This is one of those weeks when it's worth rolling the dice with Pickens (and Kenny Pickett), as the Texans are missing top corner Derek Stingley (IR - hamstring) and safety Jalen Pitre (chest). Shaquill Griffin, who hasn't played well in years, stepped in for Stingley at left cornerback last week, which means he'll likely see a lot of Pickens this Sunday. Pickens has aligned wide to the right on 47 percent of his snaps this year, more than any other spot of the field.

• Courtland Sutton — 31% started

Start Over — Tutu Atwell (at IND), Zay Flowers (at CLE), Nico Collins (vs. PIT)

Sutton and fellow wideout Jerry Jeudy were about the only bright spots for Denver last week, combining for 172 receiving yards in the infamous 70-20 loss. It's tough to trust anyone from a team that's this poorly coached for a second straight year, but the early returns have been good from Sutton, who now gets to face a struggling Bears defense that's allowed 9.75 YPT to wide receivers. The Chicago secondary is nothing special even at full strength, so it'll be extremely vulnerable if top corner Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and top safety Eddie Jackson (foot) aren't able to return after missing practice Wednesday. Sutton, Jeudy and Russell Wilson are all solid fantasy starts this week with their sinking ship crashing into another capsized vessel.

• Other Good Matchups: Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison (at CAR), Davante Adams (at LAC), Tee Higgins (vs. TEN), DK Metcalf (at NYG) Puka Nacua (at IND), George Pickens (at HOU), Brandon Aiyuk (vs. ARZ), Jerry Jeudy (at CHI), Chris Godwin (at NO), Jahan Dotson (at PHI), DJ Chark & Adam Thielen (vs. MIN), Isaiah Hodgins & Darius Slayton (vs. SEA)

Tight Ends 👍

• Evan Engram (vs. ATL) — 79% started

Start Over — Kyle Pitts (at JAX), Pat Freiermuth (at HOU), David Njoku (vs. BAL)

Engram ranks third among TEs in catches (18) and yards (173) and is tied with Sam LaPorta (22) for the second most targets.The Falcons, meanwhile, have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the position, despite facing Hayden Hurst and a pair of rookies (LaPorta, Luke Musgrave) to date. Now they'll face the challenge of covering the middle of the field and the flats without three-down linebacker Troy Andersen, who is in danger of missing the rest of the season with a pec tear. Engram is an especially strong option in PPR leagues, where we're less bothered by the reality that his share of the high-value targets in Jacksonville (red zone, end zone, deep ball, etc.) has remained significantly lower than his overall target share.

• Other Good Matchups: Luke Musgrave (vs. DET), Gerald Everett (vs. LV)

Sit/Downgrade 👎

Quarterbacks 👎

• Dak Prescott (vs. NE) — 54% started

Start Instead — Justin Fields (vs. DEN), Deshaun Watson (vs. BAL), Joe Burrow (at TEN)

Prescott hasn't displayed a ceiling in any case and now faces one of the league's better defenses in a game that also comes with some blowout risk. Bill Belichick's gang already held Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa under 15 fantasy points in Patriots losses, and Prescott may be headed for the same fate this Sunday as the leader of a balanced Dallas outfit that can also lean on its running game and/or defense to win games.

Other Tough Matchups: Jared Goff (at GB), Mac Jones (at DAL), Desmond Ridder (at JAX)

Running Backs 👎

• Brian Robinson (at PHI) — 49% started

Start Instead — Dameon Pierce (vs. PIT), Alvin Kamara (vs. TB), Jerome Ford (vs. BAL)

Robinson ran for 86 yards and a TD against the Eagles last year and now has a larger share of Washington's backfield workload this year. The problem is that the 2022 production game in positive came script with the Commanders pulling off an upset — something that might happen again this Sunday... but probably won't. If the game plays out the way Vegas (and most fans) expect it to, Robinson likely will land around 12-to-15 carries, and against a fearsome defensive front led by star rookie Jalen Carter. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to RBs this year, and only two have allowed lower YPC marks than Philadelphia's 2.84.

• Rachaad White (vs. NO) — 42% started

Start Instead — De'Von Achane (at BUF), Javonte Williams (at CHI), Isiah Pacheco (at NYJ)

White may be the worst pure runner among NFL starting RBs, averaging 3.1 YPC this year after 3.7 last season. He's playing a ton of snaps, but in an offense that can't run the ball when it wants to and sometimes doesn't even try to. On top of that, White has seen only 10 of the team's 89 targets despite being the only Bucs RB to see a pass this year. The Saints, meanwhile, have proven to be tough to run on for what feels like the sixth or seventh season in a row, allowing 3.88 YPC and the seventh fewest fantasy points to RBs. Offseason downgrades at DT don't seem to be mattering much with LBs Demario Davis and Pete Werner both off to strong starts.

• Other Tough Matchups: Joe Mixon (at TEN), Rhamondre Stevenson (at DAL), Breece Hall & Dalvin Cook (vs. KC), Gus Edwards or Melvin Gordon (at CLE)

Wide Receivers 👎

• Garrett Wilson (vs. KC) — 66% started

Start Instead — Tyler Lockett (at NYG), Michael Pittman (vs. LAR), Chris Godwin (at NO)

Wilson is dealing with a level of QB play that would make Drake London and Marquise Brown feel grateful if they had the misfortune of watching Jets games. There's always some chance for a huge play that fills out the box score — like Wilson's YAC-heavy distance score two weeks ago — but we're otherwise looking at poor marks for both catch rate and YPT most weeks. This one is unlikely to be an exception, as the Chiefs are playing good defense in general and have been using top corner L'Jarius Sneed to shadow at times. The good news for Wilson's fantasy managers is that the upcoming loss might be the one that puts a nail in the coffin of Zach Wilson's career as a starting quarterback.

• WR Zay Flowers (at CLE) — 43% started

Start Instead — Jordan Addison (at CAR), Drake London (at JAX), Terry McLaurin (at PHI)

Being both a Ravens fan and target-share enthusiast, I've quickly become a fan of Flowers, who is sitting on 21-188-0 (25 targets, 29.8 percent share) through the first three weeks of his career. The fast start for a first-round prospect portends many years of fantasy value — and perhaps even a matchup-proof future — but in the short term we should tread more carefully. For starters, his TE-like 5.2 aDOT is a definite problem in non-PPR leagues, creating the threat of many receiving lines similar to last week's (8-48-0 on 10 targets). But more important, at least for this week, is the challenge of facing a red-hot Cleveland defense that leads the league in both YPT (5.4) and fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. 

• Other Tough Matchups: Mike Evans (at NO), Terry McLaurin (at PHI), Marquise Brown (at SF), Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Skyy Moore (at NYJ), Michael Gallup (vs. NE), DeVante Parker (at DAL)

Tight Ends 👎

• Hunter Henry — 32% started

Start Instead — David Njoku (vs. BAL), Dalton Kincaid (vs. MIA), Pat Freiermuth (at HOU)

Henry thrived amidst negative game script the first two weeks of the season, but his sub-15-percent target share made it no surprise when he came crashing back to earth with 17 yards and in a 15-10 win over the Jets this past Sunday. While a visit to Dallas might mean a return to playing from behind and throwing more passes, Henry also will have to contend with one of the best defenses in the league — a Dallas unit that held Darren Waller, Tyler Conklin and Zach Ertz to 92 yards and no TD on 13 targets over the first three weeks of the season. 

More generally speaking, it's interesting how quickly Henry went from undervalued before the season to overvalued after the first few weeks. And now he's probably one or two bad games away from fantasy players underestimating him again.

• Other Tough Matchups: Jake Ferguson (vs. NE), Dalton Schultz (vs. PIT)

Week 3 Streaming Picks

For Shallow Leagues (35-59 percent rostered)

QB C.J. Stroud (vs. PIT)

RB Kenneth Gainwell (vs. WAS)

RB Roschon Johnson (vs. DEN)

WR Brandin Cooks (vs. NE)

WR Romeo Doubs (vs. DET)

TE Luke Musgrave (vs. DET)

K Brandon Aubrey (vs. NE)

D/ST Broncos (at CHI)

For Medium-depth Leagues (10-34 percent rostered)

QB Baker Mayfield (at NO)

RB Matt Breida (vs. SEA)

RB Tyjae Spears (vs. CIN)

WR Jayden Reed (vs. DET)

WR DJ Chark (vs. MIN)

TE Dawson Knox (vs. MIA)

K Matt Gay (vs. LAR)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. ATL)

For Deep Leagues (0-9 percent rostered)

QB Desmond Ridder (at JAX)

RB Latavius Murray (vs. MIA)

RB Rico Dowdle (vs. NE)

RB Melvin Gordon (at CLE) - if Gus Edwards is out with a concussion

WR Josh Downs (vs. LAR)

WR Darius Slayton (vs. SEA)

TE Cade Otton (at NO)

K Wil Lutz (at CHI)

D/ST Houston Texans (vs. PIT)