This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.
Last week I looked at players that have gained value in dynasty leagues since the start of free agency March 11, highlighting Caleb Williams, Chuba Hubbard and Josh Jacobs, among others. Now it's time for the reverse, breaking down some players that lost value amidst the trades and signings that took place over the past couple weeks.
You'll notice a couple repeats from when I did this same article at the end of February, with the outlook further dampening for Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen in particular. Just remember that it doesn't necessarily mean those players should be avoided. In fact, it often means there's a nice "buy low" opportunity if other managers in your dynasty league(s) are overestimating the extent of value loss.
Some of the guys mentioned below are under the radar(ish), but with high-profile players like Allen or Herbert there tends to be a universal acknowledgement of value gain/loss after noteworthy offseason events. In other words, do with the information what you will.
QB Fields will get another shot to start in the NFL, but it might not happen until late 2024 or 2025, and if it does come to fruition this season he'll be in an Arthur Smith scheme that rarely used Ryan Tannehill and Desmond Ridder on designed runs. It's also not the best sign that Fields was traded for so little — a sixth-round pick that converts to a fourth-rounder if he plays more than half of Pittsburgh's snaps this season — even if that partially seems to be a product of the Bears misplaying their hand and/or doing Fields a minor favor.
QB The hiring of Jim Harbaugh and then OC Greg Roman sent a strong signal that the Chargers' pass-happy ways would be coming to an end. I also figured they'd release Mike Williams (knee) but thought Keenan Allen was more likely to sign an extension than be traded/cut. Now Herbert is left with a supporting cast that will probably be subpar even if the Chargers pick a WR at No. 5 overall and said player is an instant success. The signings of RB Gus Edwards and TE Will Dissly further hint at a desire to run the ball, and even with TE Hayden Hurst included the non-WR group of pass catchers is a downgrade from last year's unit featuring Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett.
The good news is that the Chargers have gone from being near the bottom of the league in cap space to near the top, and they also own picks No. 37, 69, 105, 110, 140, 181, 225 and 253, i.e., all of their own selections plus Cincinnati's fourth-rounder and a compensatory seventh-round pick. Herbert's dynasty managers can feel at least somewhat better about his outlook if the Chargers draft pass catchers on both Day 1 and Day 2.
RB Tyjae Spears
Spears did enough as a rookie that it was reasonable to hope for a true lead role if/when Derrick Henry departed. The Titans might like their 2023 third-round pick, but they probably don't love him (or at least don't think he can handle huge workloads) given the decision to sign Tony Pollard for $10.5 million guaranteed and $14.5 million through the first two seasons.
While there was never any doubt Tennessee would bring in some kind of replacement, Pollard is toward the high end of what was expected, as opposed to something like AJ Dillon, Ezekiel Elliott, a third/fourth-round rookie, etc. Pollard's track record even makes it fair to wonder if Spears will be the preferred back for passing situations — an aspect he thoroughly dominated in the 2023 Titans offense en route to 70 targets. My best guess right now is that Spears gets about the same number of opportunities as last season, only with slightly fewer targets and more carries (100 in 2023).
RB Ty Chandler
I'm not sure Chandler's value has changed much in my mind, where he was never worth much of anything to begin with. But there definitely were/are people hyping him up, mostly due to his big game against the Bengals in December and some ensuing coach-speak. Never mind that the Vikings made sure to keep him off the field until they had no other choice, then put Chandler back into a timeshare with Alexander Mattison at the end of the season after his breakout in Cincinnati was followed by a Week 16 dud against Detroit. I'll even say there's a decent chance Chandler enters the year as a third-stringer, behind not only Aaron Jones but also a draft pick or cheap free-agent signing.
RB Brian Robinson isn't the worst guy to be sharing a backfield with given his mediocre results through two NFL seasons, but I nonetheless worry that the Commanders will make the classic lazy coaching mistake of defaulting to size for goal-line carries even though the smaller guy has a much better track record of actually converting those chances into TDs. It also doesn't seem like the best environment for production in general, given OC Kliff Kingsbury's subpar work in Arizona and the likelihood of a rookie QB under center.
On top of that, Ekeler got just $4.2 million guaranteed at signing, which is actually less than what the man he's replacing received from New England (Antonio Gibson, $5.3m guaranteed). We all knew Ekeler's days of averaging 17-to-19 touches per game were probably over, but a couple weeks ago there was at least hope he'd sign a bigger contract with a better team
WR Keenan Allen
Allen was a headliner for this same article a few weeks ago, with his options being a separation for Justin Herbert or staying put with Herbert in a run-first, Greg Roman-led offense. Both of those outcomes looked poor relative to what might've been expected back in January, and now the trade to Chicago demands another dip in value. Allen might be Option B rather than A for the first time since his rookie season — even then he was basically even with Antonio Gates in targets per game — and Caleb Williams is unlikely to be a top quarterback as a rookie even if he eventually develops into one.
That's not to say there isn't also an upside scenario — e.g. Williams has a Stroud-like rookie season and DJ Moore misses a bunch of games — but when we're talking about mean/median outcomes there simply aren't many players that have dropped more than Allen since I did my original run of projections back in January. And for a player entering his age-32 season, the upcoming year's projection/expectation accounts for a huge share of his dynasty value.
- WRs DeAndre Hopkins & Treylon Burks
From a real-life standpoint, the addition of Calvin Ridley should allow Hopkins and Burks to handle roles that best suit them. Last year, a 31-year-old Hopkins oddly led the league with 37 targets 20-plus yards downfield, and Burks played at least 65 percent of snaps in eight of his 11 appearances despite doing next to nothing. Adding a deep threat, e.g., Gabe Davis, would've allowed Hopkins to handle more of the short and intermediate routes/targets on which he's long dominated while allowing Burks to face expectations in line with a No. 3 receiver rather than a first-round pick.
Both of those things are also true with Ridley coming in, except that Ridley is a potential target hog in his own right, capable of taking a lot of the intermediate looks that might otherwise go to Hopkins and screens that might be right in Burks' wheelhouse. With Chigoziem Okonkwo at tight end and a pair of fairly skilled pass catchers in the backfield (Spears, Pollard), the Titans project for a wide target distribution that will make it rather difficult for Hopkins to approach the 30-percent-target-share ceiling he's previously shown. The ancillary weapons, like Okonkwo and Burks, are highly unlikely to approach triple-digit targets even if they display huge improvement from a non-fantasy standpoint.
TE Waller is openly contemplating retirement and still hasn't made a decision two and a half weeks after telling a reporter he'd decide "pretty soon." I don't blame him, considering he'll turn 32 in September, has missed at least five games in three straight seasons and would be returning to one of the worst rosters in the league. On the other hand, the Giants apparently want Waller back, which means he'd collect between $10.725 million and $12 million this season under the terms of his current contract (which runs through 2026).
If you have Waller on a dynasty roster, you were probably hoping he would A) commit to playing another season, B) get traded or released and land with a better team. Instead, it looks like he'll either hang up his cleats or give it a second go with the Giants. The good news is that he was still quite useful when healthy last year, ranking 11th among TEs (200-route min.) in yards per route (1.61) and 13th in targets per route (21.6 percent). Those numbers are a far cry from his 2019-20 peak — when he was essentially Top 3 among TEs in every significant rate stat — but they're at least in line with his per-snap/route production from 2021-22 and solidly in fantasy-relevant territory.
- TE Cole Kmet
Kmet isn't someone I expected to lose value this offseason. 2023 was by far his best year, featuring a career-high 719 yards and an 81.8 percent catch rate in an offense that was horribly inefficient on passes that didn't go to him or Moore. Swapping out scramble/sack-happy Justin Fields for rookie Caleb Williams should've been a clear win in terms of the volume projection, but now that's been fouled up with the Bears acquiring Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and D'Andre Swift.
The Everett addition is especially concerning; maybe it's a nothing-burger and he'll only play in two-TE packages, or maybe he'll take away many/most of the snaps in obvious passing situations. Kmet is the better player overall, but Everett's superior agility and acceleration might make him an equal or superior choice for third-and-long and hurry-up situations when the TE is basically just a fourth WR.
TE Davis Allen
There are some similarities to Chandler here, with Allen having spent most of 2023 as a third-stringer before producing one big game (4-50-1 Week 14 at Baltimore) once the two guys ahead of him were injured. Tyler Higbee returned the next week and banished Allen back to irrelevance, until Higbee's ACL tear in the playoff loss to Detroit thrust the rookie into action again.
Higbee now faces an uncertain future despite having significant contract guarantees for both 2024 and 2025, but that doesn't mean Allen will be the one to benefit. The Rams recently gave TE Colby Parkinson a three-year, $22.5 million contract with $10.25 million guaranteed at signing and $15.5 million through the first two seasons.... which seems like an overpay but nonetheless makes him the favorite to step in for Higbee.
Davis isn't someone I was ever excited about, as he's a fifth-round pick who had less than 1,000 yards in four seasons at Clemson and ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at the 2023 Combine despite being quite thin (6-6, 245) by NFL standards for his position. Parkinson had a similar physical profile coming out of Stanford as a fourth-round pick in 2020, to be fair, but he at least did well with his limited chances in Seattle the past two seasons (50-569-4 on 68 targets) and now has the sizable contract in hand. Neither tight end is worth rostering in shallower dynasty leagues.
