This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
New York Jets 
+17.5
I know this sounds like madness but the Jets are a professional team and they're getting 17.5 points this week which seems like a lot, even coming off last week's blowout. This a game where some correction should come similarly to the 2007 Patriots second-half of the season (big spreads they didn't always cover).
Arizona Cardinals 
-6
The Eagles possibly turning things around this season and Jalen Hurt leading the way is a great story. But are they really a great team now? Is Hurts going to play perfect football as a rookie quarterback? Those are two legitimate questions and everyone seems to have bought a ticket for the Philadelphia bandwagon. The Eagles defense has been questionable and I like the Cardinals to put up plenty of points.
Minnesota Vikings 
-3
So if you don't live in Chicago all the talk leading into last Sunday's contest was about Mitchell Trubisky vs. Deshaun Watson. Trubisky responded with what will probably be his best game of the season but that will lead to people over-valuing the Bears this week. After a tough loss in Tampa, the Vikings should regroup at home and they've won five of their last seven games.
Player Props
Chad Hansen over 40.5 Receiving Yards
This might be too obvious of a choice as Hansen has had 101 and 56 receiving yards in his last two games. The 101 yards came against this same Colts team and it's likely the Texans will be behind in the second half and will throw more as a result. I don't mind taking a little on his anytime touchdown prop at +240 either.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Stephon Gilmore is back and the Patriots have been solid against the pass as of late. Jared Goff had 137 passing yards, Justin Herbert had 209 passing yards and Kyler Murray had 170 in the last three games facing New England. Here's my favorite wager of the week.
David Montgomery Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
This line smells fishy as Montgomery has hit the over for this mark in each of his last three games. However, in two of those games, he got only 11 carries and he's not going to keep averaging over six yards per carry going forward. Those games were also against three teams who are 29th, 31st, and 32 against opposing running backs. Expect some regression against the Vikings this week.
Player Touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb +220
It's hard to predict which of the three Dallas wide receivers will have a big game and lately it's been Amari Cooper coming up big. However, he's at +190 and I'd rather take the slightly better odds as I think both are pretty even as far as who will score this weekend. The Dallas offense has been trying to get Lamb involved and he should get a carry that he has the upside to make a big play from.
Breshad Perriman +475, Denzel Mims +475
Jamison Crowder is officially listed as questionable and won't be 100 percent even if he plays. The Jets should have a much better showing this week and the person who doesn't have Jalen Ramsey on him on any given play inside the 20 is probably the one who scores. We only need one of these guys to score to make a profit.
Leonard Fournette -106
I usually like taking better odds for these wagers but getting almost even money is good enough for me. Ronald Jones is going to sit this one out which should mean that Fournette will be expected to handle most of the touches. Tampa rested him last week so he should get plenty of touches including the goal-line work.
Hayden Hurst +275
Hurst has managed just one catch in each of his last two games so this number seems like it should a bit better than this. However, this is a good matchup for him and more importantly, he's gotten at least one red-zone target in each of his last six games.
