This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
The game I liked the most this week was the Ravens +5 against the Steelers. However, I'm off that with the game being moved (and still possibly canceled) and Lamar Jackson's status in limbo. Let's turn the page to the Vikings at home against the Panthers. Minnesota's loss to the Cowboys looks especially bad but I don't think the Panthers are a very good team, even with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Even without Adam Thielen I'd expect the Vikings to put up plenty of point in this game. Take Minnesota -3.5.
Blindly I guessed the Bills/Chargers over/under total would be either 55.5 or 56 and it's sitting at 53.5 right now. I think when the line came out the bookmakers were a tad worried about bad weather and were a little cautious with putting this line too high. The weather Sunday in Buffalo is supposed to be perfect (at least for Buffalo this time of the year) at 50 degrees, partly cloudy and no rain. Both young quarterbacks should be able to take the ball up and down the field. Take over 53 points.
Recency bias will make us think about the whopping nine points the Bengals scored last week and that they put up a goose egg in the second half. Cincinnati made a bold call this week to go with Brandon Allen over Ryan Finley and I actually trust the Bengals brass more now than in the Marvin Lewis era (that's not saying much). There's still a ton of talent at wide receiver for the Bengals, they're home and Brandon Allen IS better than Finley, in my opinion. Take Bengals over 19.5 points.
Player Props
Darren Waller Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
Waller hasn't hit the over for this number in three of the last four games which oddly, makes me like it better. Atlanta is literally the worst team in the league defending the tight end so Waller should feast here.
Jarvis Landry Over 3.5 Catches (-167)
I hate taking odds like these but Landry hasn't hit this mark in his last two games and therefore it reeks of a trap to take the under here (+133). Jacksonville is 28th against the wide receiver position this year and the Browns should be very aware of that.
Ian Thomas Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Thomas has zero and seven receiving yards over his last two games. So why do I like the over here? Teddy Bridgewater will be back for the Panthers this week and Thomas, although minimally, has done much better fantasy-wise with him under center. I love taking props like this when one play can hit the over; this is my favorite prop of the week.
Taysom Hill Under 200.5 Passing Yards
This was close to being my favorite prop of the week, so I guess it makes it my second favorite prop for the weekend. Is Taysom home, where weather won't be a factor? No. Might he be affected by the elevation in Denver? Maybe. Both of those factors are enough for me to take the under here. Before reading this prop I was thinking it might be 185ish so I'm thrilled to get this number.
Player Touchdowns (To Score)
Gabriel Davis +300
During the preseason the local writers here in Buffalo couldn't sing the praises of Davis any better. Without John Brown he will be on the field more and should receive more targets. At 6-2, 210 lbs. he's the biggest wide receiver the Bills have and therefore should see red zone targets.
Keelan Cole +110
He's the top receiver for the Jaguars Sunday and the Browns aren't good at defending the pass. I was hoping for better odds here but I'm willing to put a small wager here on Cole. He has four touchdowns in 10 games this season and with a bigger role should find the end zone once again.
Chad Beebe +450, Bisi Johnson +650
Both receivers will see more snaps without Adam Thielen and I love getting odds like these. While it's a long shot, both could hit which would be better than gravy on Thanksgiving.
Andy Isabella +350
Larry Fitzgerald will miss this game and that helps the prospects of Isabella having a good fantasy game. The Patriots have been terrible against the pass and if Stephon Gilmore is on DeAndre Hopkins, that could lead to Kyler Murray to throw more to his secondary receivers.
