This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
The first thing that stands out when looking at Week 7 contests on DraftKings is the obvious value with some of the mid-priced ($4,500-$6,000) running backs. The second thing I noticed, which may not be quite as obvious, is that there aren't really any sub-$6,000 quarterbacks worth using. You could maybe make an argument for Blake Bortles or Ryan Fitzpatrick, but for the first time all season, I plan to "spend up" at quarterback in the vast majority of lineups.
Though it's never ideal to adopt a strategy that you don't generally like, the situation is pretty much unavoidable in DFS, as each slate is a beast of its own. With that in mind, it will be ultra-important to find cheap options at running back, wide receiver and tight end.
I usually discuss some key injuries situations that could lead to value, but after an unusually injury-free Week 6, there isn't much to look at on that front. I'll post in the comments below if anything changes, but for now, let's jump right into the top plays for Week 7:
Quarterback
Andrew Luck, IND (vs. NO), $7,600 – Though he missed a bunch of throws in his return from a two-game absence, Luck appeared to have his usual arm strength during Sunday's loss to the Patriots. He even ended up with over 300 yards and three touchdowns, despite playing a mediocre game from a non-fantasy perspective. I'm guessing he'll play much better this week, but even if he doesn't, the awful New Orleans pass defense should make him look good. The Saints have allowed opponents to complete 65.8 percent of passes for a whopping 8.6 yards per attempt, with an 11:2 TD:INT ratio through six games. Those numbers are pretty similar to Aaron Rodgers', and the Saints haven't even had that tough of a schedule. This game has the highest over/under (52) in Week 7.
Carson Palmer, ARI (vs. BAL), $6,700 – This is one of the more obvious plays this weekend, as Palmer's price still hasn't caught up to his production, and the Ravens were just shredded by Josh McCown and Colin Kaepernick. Best of all, Baltimore is still solid against the run and semi-capable on offense, so there's actually a good chance Palmer will still be active deep into the fourth quarter, even though his team is a heavy favorite to win. With both a high floor and high ceiling, Palmer is in play for any kind of contest.
Other options:Tom Brady, NE (vs. NYJ), $8,500; Drew Brees, NO (at IND), $7,000; Philip Rivers, SD (vs. OAK), $6,500
Running Back
Chris Ivory, NYJ (at NE), $5,800 – Among running backs included in the Thursday-Sunday slate, Ivory ranks third in DraftKings points per game (22.1) and only 11th in price. Though he's clearly a top-10 commodity at running back, his ownership rate should stay below 15 percent this week, as many people expect an easy Patriots win, and there are a bunch popular options in Ivory's price range. Yes, there's some chance Ivory falls out of the game plan if the Jets are down big, but I really don't see it playing out that way. The Jets are actually a very good team in their own right, and the Patriots appear weak on both the offensive and defensive lines.
Todd Gurley, STL (vs. CLE), $5,000 – This is the most obvious pick of Week 7, with Gurley coming off consecutive 140-yard rushing performances to face a Browns team that is pitiful against the run for a second straight year. Even with the expectation of an ownership rate above 30 percent, Gurley deserves a spot in all cash-game and 50/50 lineups and the majority of GPP lineups. Just take the points – there are better ways to differentiate your roster.
Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (at KC), $8,400; Devonta Freeman, ATL (at TEN), $7,900; Dion Lewis, NE (vs. NYJ), $6,500; LeSean McCoy, BUF (at JAX), $5,500; Lamar Miller, MIA (vs. HOU), $4,600
Wide Receiver
John Brown, ARI (vs. BAL), $5,500 – Just as I started to wean myself off of John Brown, he finally had the huge game that seemed so inevitable. Luckily, I wasn't able to make a clean break, so I did benefit from his 31.6 DraftKings points in a few lineups. He still only has two touchdowns, but he's now on pace to catch 88 passes for 1,325 yards on 120 targets in a very efficient offense. Given the price and opponent, he's an excellent option this weekend, even though the big game last week ensures his ownership rate will spike. I have no idea why anyone would spend the extra $1,900 for Larry Fitzgerald, unless they found a league that awards points for touchdowns scored in previous weeks, years or decades. And yet, come Sunday, Fitzgerald will probably have the higher ownership rate.
Donte Moncrief, IND (vs. NO), $5,200 – As previously discussed, the New Orleans pass defense is disastrously bad, and Sunday's game will be played in a dome with an over/under of 52. I've been wary of Moncrief this season because Andre Johnson continues to get more snaps, but targets are what ultimately matter and the 22-year-old hasn't lacked for those. He's drawn at least seven in every game Andrew Luck has played this season, including 11 in last Sunday's loss to the Patriots. I also love T.Y. Hilton ($6,500) this week, but Moncrief and the extra $1,300 is a slightly better value.
Michael Crabtree, OAK (at SD), $4,300 – Despite missing some snaps because of minor ailments, Crabtree has four more targets and just one fewer reception than Amari Cooper this season. The rookie is obviously the more gifted player, but he and Crabtree have essentially been co-No. 1 wideouts in the Oakland offense, accounting for nearly half of the team's targets. Marcel Reece and Seth Roberts have oddly scored five of the team's 10 receiving touchdowns, but once things inevitably correct in Cooper and Crabtree's direction, the latter should find himself north of 15 DraftKings points per game.
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (at TEN), $9,100; DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (at MIA), $8,600; T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. NO), $6,500; Mike Evans, TB (at WAS), $6,400; Eric Decker, NYJ (at NE), $5,300; Willie Snead, NO (at IND), $4,300; Rishard Matthews, MIA (vs. HOU), $4,300; Terrance Williams, DAL (vs. NYG), $4,200; Jamison Crowder, WAS (vs. TB), $3,700
Tight End
Travis Kelce, KC (vs. PIT), $4,900 – It didn't quite happen for Kelce last week, as his five-catch, 88-yard second half wasn't enough to atone for a goose egg before halftime. Of course, I would've been perfectly happy if one of those catches had gone for a touchdown, and he did finish the game with a team-high seven targets. This is the second straight week and third time this season I've recommended Kelce, whose weekly ceiling matches that of any non-Gronk tight end. Only a fool would have faith in Andy Reid's play-calling, but if Kelce ever does stumble into double-digit targets, his talent should ensure a huge performance. It's also worth mentioning that Jeremy Maclin (concussion) probably won't play this week.
Other options:Rob Gronkowski, NE (vs. NYJ), $8,100; Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. PHI), Delanie Walker, TEN (at ATL), $3,900; Jordan Cameron, MIA (vs. HOU), $3,300; Crockett Gillmore, BAL (at ARI), $2,500
Team Defense/Special Teams
Washington Redskins (vs. TB), $2,500 – There's no need to spend more than $2,500 on a defense this week, with the Redskins and Rams ($2,400) both looking like excellent options. I think most people will go for a St. Louis unit that has a lot of hype, but the Rams actually have to face a competent opponent, whereas the Redskins get Jameis Winston and his terrible offensive line.
Other options: Carolina Panthers (vs. PHI), $3,100; New York Giants (vs. DAL), $2,800; Miami Dolphins (vs. HOU), $2,700; St. Louis Rams (vs. CLE), $2,400
Thursday Night Game
I could make a case for Anquan Boldin (hamstring) at $4,500 or Marshawn Lynch at $6,900, but neither is a strong enough option to make up for the boost in ownership rate that comes with playing on Thursday night. I'm just going to enter dummy lineups without any Thursday players in the Thursday contests, allowing me to take advantage of the higher-than-usual ownership rates in a game that figures to be low-scoring. I'm much more interested in the Sunday morning London game (Bills-Jags), which is included in the Thursday slate but not the main Sunday slate.
