This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Following an unusually low-scoring Week 4, things should get back to normal this weekend, with a number of high-priced superstars (including Julio Jones, Odell Beckham and Jamaal Charles) drawing clearly favorable matchups. Of course, those guys are pretty easy to pick out, and you'll still need some cheap value plays to fit more than one star player into a lineup.
Before we get into the recommendations that don't come with an asterisk, let's take a look at some of the unsettled injury situations that could lead to big days for the missing player's teammates:
With LeSean McCoy (hamstring) expected to miss Sunday's game in Tennessee, the Buffalo backfield again bears close watching. I don't mind Karlos Williams ($5,700) at his new price tag, but he's dealing with a concussion and seems no better than 50-50 to play. The third-string running back is Anthony Dixon ($3,000), who could make up for a lack of explosiveness with volume and a short touchdown (or two). He may not be exciting, but if McCoy and Williams both sit, Dixon has a shot to get 20 touches in a favorable matchup.
With his price tumbling all the way to $6,500 for a favorable matchup against the Chiefs, Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) could be a popular Week 5 option, if he returns from injury. I prefer tight end Martellus Bennett, but Jeffery is definitely in play assuming he's expected to take on his typical snap count. If Jeffery sits again, Eddie Royal ($3,700) will be one of the week's better sub-$4,000 options.
There's a lot going on in San Diego right now, with Steve Johnson (hamstring) and Malcom Floyd (concussion) both injured just as Antonio Gates is returning from a suspension. Coming off a big game, Ladarius Green ($3,200) may remain heavily involved in the offense, possibly taking on a good chunk of Johnson's slot snaps. Keenan Allen ($7,200) is the other obvious DFS option, but with so many moving parts, it's too early to recommend any of the Chargers besides Philip Rivers. Any news related to Green, Gates and/or the injuries could be valuable.
That's about it for injuries that I'm truly concerned with, but any news regarding the post-Lance Dunbar (knee) Dallas backfield would be more than welcome. Joseph Randle ($6,000) is too expensive to warrant consideration, as he was benched for part of last week's game, and Darren McFadden ($3,400) carries a far more reasonable price tag.
Now, let's get to the top plays for Week 4:
Quarterback
Drew Brees, NO (at PHI), $7,200 – The Saints' offseason moves suggested a strong desire for a balanced offense, but the team's lousy defense and Week 5 matchup could lead to a throwback high-volume Brees game. With the shoulder concern in his rear-view mirror, Brees will face a Philly defense that's excellent against the run but somewhat vulnerable in the secondary. The Saints would be wise to come out chucking it, and the volume expectation gets a nice boost from the Eagles' fast pace on offense. One warning: I wouldn't use Brees in cash games or 50/50s, as Philly's defense is so far ahead of its offense that this could be a surprising slugfest.
Philip Rivers, SD (vs. PIT), $6,200 – Despite facing a terrible Cleveland run defense and never trailing by more than three points, the Chargers had a 38:21 pass:run ratio last week, displaying little faith in their injury-marred offensive line's ability to create holes for Melvin Gordon. Now set to face a Pittsburgh team with a decent front seven but shaky secondary, Rivers could be in for another high-volume outing on Monday Night Football. Last week's big game may make him a popular choice, but QB ownership will still be pretty spread out in Week 5, and Rivers has an excellent combination of price, talent and matchup.
Other options:Matt Ryan, ATL (vs. WAS), $6,700; Carson Palmer, ARI (at DET), $6,600; Tyrod Taylor, BUF (at TEN), $5,800; Jay Cutler, CHI (at KC), $5,300; Kirk Cousins, WAS (at ATL), $5,300
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount, NE (at DAL), $4,500 – Tough as it may be to pass on New England's prolific passing attack, Blount is the best part of the offense to target. I'll give the Cowboys credit for being competitive so far, but the talent gap between these two teams in their current states is just too large for the game to stay close. My favorite thing about selecting Blount is that his big games usually coincide with efficient, low-volume (read: mediocre for fantasy) performances for his teammates. Given that Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and (especially) Rob Gronkowski will all be popular choices this weekend, why not roster the one guy who can keep them out of the end zone? Ideally, Blount poaches a TD or two from the passing game in the first half and then gets the clock-killing work after halftime – basically, the same game script from Week 3 against Jacksonville.
T.J. Yeldon, JAC (at TB), $4,400 – Carrying a ridiculous price tag for a three-down workhorse, Yeldon is my favorite play at any position for Week 5. After barely coming off the field in a 100-yard outing last week, the rookie ranks third at his position in snaps (218), trailing only Jamaal Charles (231) and Matt Forte (229), according to Pro Football Focus. Yeldon has just 10 catches for 42 yards and has yet to score a touchdown, but unless he misses multiple games, his usage will make it difficult to fall short of 50 receptions and five or six touchdowns for the season.
Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (at SD), $8,500; Jamaal Charles, KC (vs. CHI), $7,800; Chris Johnson, ARI (at DET), $4,400
Wide Receiver
Randall Cobb, GB (vs. SF), $7,500 – The St. Louis defense is one of the few units capable of holding the Packers in check at Lambeau Field, but even if Green Bay only scores two or three touchdowns, Cobb should have a busy and productive afternoon. The Rams complement a monstrous d-line with a solid quartet of starters in the secondary, but there is one big weakness in the form of second-year slot corner Lamarcus Joyner, who has allowed 15 catches for 145 yards on 17 targets this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Cobb and Aaron Rodgers are surely aware of the mismatch, and the latter will probably look for quick, short passes that protect him from the wrath of Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn. Furthermore, the Rams may struggle to cover the middle of the field when playing zone, after top linebacker Alec Ogletree (leg) suffered a fractured fibula in Week 4.
Pierre Garcon, WAS (at ATL), $5,300 – Even if DeSean Jackson (hamstring) returns, which doesn't seem too likely, Garcon is one of the better bets to lead the NFL in Week 5 targets. The Redskins will likely be forced to abandon the run at some point in the second half, and with Jordan Reed (concussion/knee/ankle) not expected to play, Kirk Cousins has very limited options. If you're buying into a Falcons blowout that leads to big-time volume for Cousins, the other possibilities are wide receiver Jamison Crowder ($3,500) and running back Chris Thompson ($3,300). Crowder figures to outperform his price tag, but he'll probably be one of the week's more popular sub-$4,000 options, and he doesn't have the same ceiling as Garcon.
Willie Snead, NO (at PHI), $3,000 – Last week's no-show against the Cowboys extinguished any last bit of hope for a Brandin Cooks second-year breakout. The 2014 first-rounder will probably still lead the Saints in targets and receptions, but Snead has easily been the team's best receiver this season, catching 16 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown on just 22 targets. While the lack of targets would typically be concerning, Snead entered Week 1 as the No. 4 wideout and only played 18 snaps in the opener. He has since had at least four catches, six targets and 39 snaps in each of the last three games, quickly passing Brandon Coleman (and arguably Marques Colston) in the pecking order. The second-year UDFA draws a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Eagles, and he could have a huge game if the Saints are smart enough to give him more of Coleman and Colston's snaps.
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (vs. WAS), $9,200; Odell Beckham, NYG (vs. SF), $9,000; Emmanuel Sanders, DEN (at OAK), $7,400; Calvin Johnson, DET (vs. ARI), $7,400; Keenan Allen, SD (vs. PIT), $7,200; Jordan Matthews, PHI (vs. NO), $6,400; Mike Evans, TB (vs. JAX), $6,100; John Brown, ARI (at DET), $5,100; Terrance Williams, DAL (vs. NE); Jamison Crowder, WAS (at ATL), $3,500
Tight End
Martellus Bennett, CHI (at KC), $5,000 – The Kansas City defense should ultimately be much better than what we've seen so far, starting with Sunday's home game against the Bears. Such a statement wouldn't typically work in an offensive player's favor, but I'm expecting a comfortable Chiefs win that leads to heavy volume for the elite garbage-time duo of Bennett and Jay Cutler. Though wins will be tough to come by, the Chicago offense won't lack for big-time PPR showings this season, with Bennett, Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) all weekly candidates for massive volume. I like Bennett even more if Jeffery misses another game.
Other options:Charles Clay, BUF (at TEN), $4,100; Richard Rodgers, GB (vs. STL), $2,900; Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. NO), $2,900; Garrett Celek, SF (at NYG), $2,500
Team Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants (vs. SF), $2,900 – Although I doubt this unit will maintain its early-season statistical performance, I can no longer deny that the Giants have a decent defense, possibly even a good one. It's best to use units that are at least decent at rushing the passer, but the Giants make up for this glaring weakness with underrated cornerbacks and tough run defense (3.0 YPC). Of course, what you're really targeting is Colin Kaepernick and the hideous San Francisco offense as heavy road underdogs.
Other options: Denver Broncos (at OAK), $3,600; Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS), $3,200; Green Bay Packers (vs. STL), $3,100; Baltimore Ravens (vs. CLE), $2,900; Kansas City Chiefs (vs. CHI), $2,800; Jacksonville Jaguars (at TB), $2,700
Thursday Night Game
With Vontae Davis (foot) likely sidelined and the Houston receiving corps otherwise decimated, DeAndre Hopkins ($7,200) is safely assured of at least one-third (low-end estimate) of his team's targets. However, this isn't exactly under-the-radar information, as Davis is one of the few defensive players whose absence can have a significant impact on ownership percentages, along with guys like Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman and now Josh Norman. Between the ownership bump from injuries and the typical Thursday bump, Hopkins will be probably be the most heavily-used player in Thursday contests, which makes him an easy fade.
Sure, Hopkins is a lock for five-plus catches, but with Arian Foster ($7,000) healthy and Andrew Luck (shoulder) either sidelined or playing hurt, Thursday's game could turn into a battle of the running backs. Frank Gore ($5,000) is a decent option, but Foster is the only player I plan to use. I'm hoping last week's dud keeps his ownership percentage in check, as Foster is primed for his typical massive workload, facing a defense that's no better than mediocre.
