DraftKings NFL: Week 15 Tournament Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

What started out as an 11-game slate has turned into just nine after the SEA-LAR and WAS-PHI matchups were postponed due to COVID. The first thing that stands out is that no game has a total higher than 48 points. I can't remember a slate with so many unappealing spots from a DFS perspective. You could argue that none of the games make for good options to stack. Analyzing the position groups, there's decent value at RB and WR while there isn't much at QB and TE. That will lead to the expensive QBs being popular and the expensive RBs being relatively contrarian. For this slate especially, it's important to remember that if you stack one side of a game, it isn't mandatory to run it back with sub-optimal players from the other side. 

Also, a weekly reminder to avoid some of the chalk in tournaments. Week after week we see about half of the popular players bust and it's the leverage off of that chalk that vaults lineups to the top. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• WR DeVante Parker vs. NYJ ($4,300)

Based on Jaylen Waddle's absence and a home matchup against the lowly Jets, Parker is arguably the most underpriced player on the slate. He caught all five of his targets for 63 yards last week in his return from a shoulder injury. Waddle has been drawing double-digit targets just about every week and his absence should lead to at least a few more for Parker. He has No. 1 WR talent and a home matchup against the Jets is one of the best spots in the league. Not only is his floor relatively safe but he has big upside for that salary. He's pretty much a lock for cash games and will be popular in GPPs as well. 

• RB James Robinson vs. HOU ($5,400)

Multiple factors make Robinson look like good value. His salary has dropped to a season low after he saw single-digit carries and failed to reach 10 fantasy points for the second consecutive week. The spread in this game moved a couple points in the Jaguars favor after Urban Meyer got fired. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell said "James Robinson is our starting running back and he will played as such." Jacksonville have a very favorable matchup at home against Houston and backup RB Carlos Hyde (concussion) is also expected to be out, which would solidify Robinson's role even more. Rashaad Penny ran wild against the Texans last week. All of that makes Robinson just too cheap for this spot. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen vs. CAR ($8,100)

QB Kyler Murray at DET ($7,900)

QB Dak Prescott at NYG ($6,500)

QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYJ ($5,700)

RB Najee Harris vs. TEN ($7,800)

RB Antonio Gibson at PHI ($6,000)

RB Darrell Henderson vs. SEA ($5,900)

RB Myles Gaskin vs. NYJ ($5,600)

RB James Robinson vs. HOU ($5,400)

RB Jeff Wilson vs. ATL ($5,000), if Elijah Mitchell is out

RB Michael Carter at MIA ($4,700)

WR Davante Adams at BAL ($8,900)

WR Stefon Diggs vs. CAR ($7,700)

WR Diontae Johnson vs. TEN ($7,500)

WR Christian Kirk at DET ($5,300)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. ARI ($5,200)

WR Cole Beasley vs. CAR ($4,900)

WR DeVante Parker vs. NYJ ($4,300)

WR Gabriel Davis vs. CAR ($3,700)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. NYJ ($5,000)

TE James O'Shaughnessy vs. HOU ($3,200)

D/ST Buffalo Bills vs. CAR ($3,100)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars vs. HOU ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Arizona Cardinals (30.25) at Detroit Lions (17.25)

Cardinals

The Cardinals have the highest implied team total on the slate in a prime matchup against the Lions, who've given up the fourth-most points in the league and routinely concede big fantasy scores. Kyler Murray ($7,900) has rushed for 120 yards the last two weeks as he appears to be healthy following an ankle injury. He'll be without DeAndre Hopkins (knee), which should condense the target share and make stacks more appealing. Christian Kirk ($5,300) and A.J. Green ($4,900) stand to benefit most. Green caught seven of 10 targets for 102 yards Monday as he was clearly Murray's favorite target with Hopkins hobbled. Kirk should see a few mote targets than usual operating out of the slot. Both have a good chance to find the end zone against a bad Lions defense. So does Zach Ertz ($5,400). I'd expect Ertz too see a few more looks as well, and he won't be as popular as the other tight ends in that range. None of the Cardinals pass-catchers will be overly popular, which increases their appeal. 

Lions

It isn't necessary to run a Cardinals stack back with any Lions. They have a 17.25 implied point total and the game has blowout potential. That said, they have a couple players that are viable for GPPs. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($5,200) has a drawn a whopping 12 targets in back-to-back weeks. He has 18 catches in that span and Jared Goff has heaped praise on him. The Lions likely will trail early, so they should be passing most of the game. They're also without T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift while Josh Reynolds is listed as questionable, meaning St. Brown could see 10-plus targets again. Brock Wright ($2,800) and Shane Zylstra ($2,500) split time at tight end and drew 11 combined targets in Hockenson's absence. Either could catch a few passes and a touchdown, but I'm more likely to take a chance on St. Brown if I roster a Lion. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Murray + WR Green + WR Kirk/TE Ertz +/- WR St. Brown

Carolina Panthers (17) at Buffalo Bills (27.5)

Bills

The Bills have lost consecutive games and Sunday's matchup against Carolina should be a perfect spot to right the ship. If the Panthers defense has a strength, it's stopping the run, which bodes well for Josh Allen ($8,100) and the passing game. Allen leads QBs in fantasy points and is coming off his second game this season of 40-plus DK points. He rushed for 109 yards and it's the dual threat upside that makes him the top option at the position. Stefon Diggs ($7,700) has only topped 100 yards receiving twice this season, but his salary has come down a bit and he won't be overly popular. With Emmanuel Sanders (knee) out, Gabriel Davis ($3,700) will move into the starting lineup. He drew eight targets last week and has big play upside. The cheap salary makes him one of the better bargain on the slate. Cole Beasley ($4,900) has been inconsistent throughout the year, but he caught nine of 11 targets last week. Dawson Knox ($5,100) has drawn at least nine targets in two of the last four games. He's caught three TDs in that span while leading the Bill's pass-catchers in snaps and routes run.

Panthers

This game stack is all about the Bills side, and there is no need to force running it back with a Panther as they lack for appealing options and the matchup on the road in Buffalo is less than ideal. If I was going to take a chance on someone, it'd be Robby Anderson ($4,800). He's relatively cheap and he drew 12 targets last week when he caught seven passes for 84 yards and a TD. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Davis + WR Diggs or TE Knox

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Davante Adams + WR Rashod Bateman/ TE Mark Andrews

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Davante Adams + WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling/WR Allen Lazard

QB Dak Prescott + WR CeeDee Lamb/WR Amari Cooper + RB Saquon Barkley 

QB Jimmy Garoppolo + TE George Kittle + RB Cordarrelle Patterson 

QB Tua Tagovailoa + WR DeVante Parker + TE Mike Gesicki + RB Michael Carter

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Marvin Jones/WR Laquon Treadwell + WR Brandin Cooks

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Davante Adams at BAL ($8,900)

Sunday's slate lacks for elite running backs and now that Cooper Kupp's game has been postponed, Adams really stands out as the top overall option. He has more than 100 receiving yards in three consecutive games and four touchdowns in that span. The Ravens defense has been shredded in the passing game this season and is without top corner Marlon Humphrey. it's allowed league highs in 20-plus yard and 40-plus yard completions. Aaron Rodgers has been red hot and this a great spot for Adams to have another big game. 

• TE George Kittle vs. ATL ($7,500)

Back-to-back monster games have seen Kittle's salary rise above $7K for the first time this season. The inflated price will lead to him being considerably less popular than he should be. He has 22  catches and three TDs on 27 targets the last two weeks and has topped 150 receiving yards in each game. Not to mention that a home matchup against the Falcons is one of the better spots in football. I expect Kittle's third consecutive game of 100-plus yards and a TD. 

Honorable Mentions: Davante Adams, GB at BAL ($8,900); Najee Harris, PIT vs. TEN ($7,800); Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. CAR ($7,700)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Ezekiel Elliott at NYG ($7,300) and RB Joe Mixon at DEN ($7,200)

Elliott, Mixon and Najee Harris ($7,800) are the most expensive running backs on the slate. Elliott played with a knee brace last week and had only 12 carries even with Tony Pollard out. Mixon has been less involved in the passing game recently and the Bengals have a low implied team total in a matchup against the Broncos that's expected to be slower-paced. There is plenty of cheap value at RB and multiple expensive QBs, WRs and TEs worth spending up for. I'd rather fade the top range at RB and use the salary at the other positions. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform salary.)

• WR Gabriel Davis vs. CAR ($3,700)

The Bills will be without Emmanuel Sanders (knee), meaning Davis will step into the starting lineup and operate as the No. 2 WR alongside Stefon Diggs. Davis drew eight targets last week and was on the field for every one of Josh Allen's pass attempts. His salary is just way too cheap for that type of role in a favorable matchup at home against the Panthers. Davis has big-play ability as a deep threat and Allen likes to take chances downfield. He has upside for 100-plus yards and TD in this spot.

Honorable Mentions: A.J. Green, ARI at DET ($4,900); Christian Kirk, ARI at DET ($5,300); Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. NYJ ($5,000); Myles Gaskin. MIA vs. NYJ ($5,600); DeVante Parker, MIA vs. NYJ ($4,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. NYJ ($5,700)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. HOU ($5,100)

RB James Robinson vs. HOU ($5,400)

RB D'Onta Foreman at PIT ($5,200)

RB Jeff Wilson vs. ATL ($5,000), if Elijah Mitchell is out

RB Michael Carter at MIA ($4,700)

WR A.J. Green at DET ($4,900)

WR Cole Beasley vs. CAR ($4,900)

WR Marvin Jones vs. HOU ($4,600)

WR DeVante Parker vs. NYJ ($4,300)

WR Gabriel Davis vs. CAR ($3,700)

WR Laquon Treadwell vs. HOU ($3,300)

TE James O'Shaughnessy vs. HOU ($3,200)

TE Brevin Jordan at JAX ($2,800)

TE Brock Wright vs. ARI ($2,800)

TE Shane Zylstra vs. ARI ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Elijah Mitchell vs. ATL 

Mitchell has yet to practice this week due to a concussion and appears unlikely to play Sunday. If he misses, Jeff Wilson ($5,000) would see most of the work at RB in what should be a favorable gamescript with the 49ers currently 9.5-point favorites at home against Atlanta. He'd be a viable option in GPPs as he won't be overly popular. 

Weather

Nothing that should impact decision-making.