This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
We are getting to the part of the year where weather really starts to impact the NFL and, more important, our fantasy stats. Often, weather is overblown by fantasy owners making lineup decisions, but when there is extreme weather, we definitely have to take it into account.
I never make any sort of weather-based decision until Sunday mornings as I don't trust weather reports a day or two ahead of time, but if you flip on the pre-game shows and see heavy rain, wind or snow, you have to be ready to adapt. Last week, the Bears-49ers game in Chicago and the Texans-Packers games in Green Bay dealt with a ton of snow. Aaron Rodgers still played OK, sure, throwing two touchdowns, but with only 209 yards, but he is also used to it.
Coaches often get conservative in extreme weather, not wanting to turn the ball over in what can be close, low-scoring games. The conditions last Sunday put the 49ers' offense and Colin Kaepernick in a complete conservative shell (way too much of one!) and cost many fantasy owners who had been riding the Kaepernick train for a few weeks.
I usually don't let snow or rain impact my decisions too much on skill players, unless there is heavy wind. Where I do make immediate changes on weather is with kickers and defenses. Coaches often will not attempt longer field goals in snow or rain, which that is a big deal for fantasy scoring. Fortunately, in DraftKings, there are no kickers, but we do play defenses, and I love to get a defense in bad weather against an inexperienced or poor quarterback. Bad weather can lead to more turnovers and I will often swap defenses on Sunday morning if I see any extreme conditions.
All this is to say, be flexible on Sunday morning this time of year, but make sure there is actually that reported weather is actually happening before you make moves. Now, on to week 14 on DraftKings:
QUARTERBACK
Andrew Luck, IND vs. HOU ($6,900): As a Stanford fan, I can be biased in my love for Luck, but I have really like what I seen from him this year. The Colts still do little to protect him, but he continues to make plays either while under pressure or out of the pocket. Luck has all of his receivers and tight ends healthy and available, which feels like the first time all year, and is coming off a four-touchdown game Monday night against the Jets. The Colts come into this game tied with the Texans (and Titans) for first place in the oh-so-powerful AFC South. I like this spot for Luck in a must-win home game against a squad that has allowed eight touchdown passes over its three-game losing streak.
Jameis Winston, TB vs. NO ($6,700): After a couple of solid defensive performances by the Saints' D in Weeks 11 and 12, New Orleans reverted back to its old ways, allowing 28 points and 422 yards to the Lions last Sunday. Winston is likely to benefit from a positive game flow this week as I have to think Brees and the Saints' offense perform a lot better than last week. With an over/under of 51, this is the highest projected point total on the slate and with a low point spread, this close game should have a lot of fireworks. Winston has been especially effective at home recently, throwing for eight scores with 8.1 yards per attempt in his last three games in Tampa. Pairing Winston with Mike Evans is a stack I will use quite often this weekend.
Other Options:Drew Brees, NO at TB ($7,400); Kirk Cousins, WAS at PHI ($6,300); Matthew Stafford, DET vs. CHI ($6,800).
Cheapie Stab:
Carson Palmer, ARZ at MIA ($5,700): Palmer has not been the quarterback he was in 2015, but at this price, I love getting the mass volume Palmer has had recently. Palmer has thrown at least 45 passes and at least 280 yards in five of his last six games. The Dolphins' defense has been blitzed through the air the last two weeks by the murderer's row of Joe Flacco (381 yards/four TD) and Colin Kaepernick (296 yards/three TD). Palmer is in a great spot, priced way too cheaply and is a nice option to save at QB and line up studs elsewhere.
RUNNING BACK
David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell have become every week monster plays in the full-point PPR scoring format, but rather than telling anyone why they are great plays this week, I will write up a couple others this week who can be paired with one of the pricey studs.
Jordan Howard, CHI at DET ($6,400): Howard came through last week with a huge game against the Niners, rushing for 117 yards and three touchdowns. He averages 4.9 yards per carry and continues to produce no matter whom the Bears toss out there at QB. Matt Barkley looked serviceable in his two starts and would have had a huge stat line last week if not for two drops by Josh Bellamy. Barkley's ability to be decent is huge for Howard's production as defenses can't just stack the box all game. Howard had success last time he faced the Lions, running for 111 yards on 23 carries. He has been productive for fantasy owners five weeks in a row, and if the Bears are going to stay close to the Lions, they will likely have to feed Howard to keep the ball out of Matthew Stafford's hands. His price actually dropped $500 this week (I know, not facing the Niners helps that) and at only $6,4000, he looks to be a solid value.
Devonta Freeman, ATL at LA ($6,100): Freeman has not been the volume back he was in 2015 as he only has topped 20 carries once this season. The return of Tevin Coleman and the effectiveness of Matt Ryan have made the Falcons' offense a bit more diversified in 2016. Even with the mitigated workload, Freeman has found a way to be effective and has really turned it up recently with two TDs in each of the last two weeks. Coleman has been back the last two weeks and seen the field a good amount, but when the Falcons get in the red zone, they seem to favor Freeman. In the last two games, Freeman has received 11 red-zone rushes to Coleman's five. Freeman also received five targets last week, a nice bonus in full-point PPR. This week, Freeman gets a Rams defense that has struggled lately, allowing 88 yards and a score to LaGarrette Blount last week and 146 yards and a score to Mark Ingram the week before. Freeman's price is manageable, and the threat of Coleman has kept his ownership percentage down, but in this matchup, along with his recent red-zone volume, I am a full go on Freeman at the price.
Other Options:David Johnson, ARZ at MIA ($9,800); Le'Veon Bell, PIT at BUF ($9,000); Melvin Gordon, SD at CAR ($7,400); Jeremy Hill, CIN at CLE ($5,800); Matt Forte, NYJ at SF ($6,800).
Cheapie Stab:
Darren Sproles, PHI v. WAS ($4,400): Ryan Mathews is expected to return for the Eagles this week, but I still like Sproles at this bargain price. Sproles has received at least six targets in four of his last five games, and this is a game where the Eagles likely will have to score to keep up with the Redskins' offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
The big stud WR all look good this week, and while Mike Evans sticks out facing the Saints' D in a high-scoring game, I will look at three mid-priced wide receivers who might help you get some of the stars in your lineup.
Demaryius Thomas, DEN at TEN ($6,000): I was surprised when I saw that Thomas' salary has slipped this far as he is the 19th-highest priced receiver this week. Thomas only has five touchdowns this season but has quietly been a target monster recently with double-digit targets in six of his last seven games. DT should get Trevor Siemian back this week for a prime matchup against the Titans. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have allowed nine passing touchdowns and an average of 325 passing yards per game. In addition, the last two games, they allowed more than 100 yards receiving to three receivers in Marquess Wilson, Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson. Combine the matchup with the regular high volume Thomas gets and I think he is way underpriced.
DeSean Jackson, WAS at PHI ($5,200): D Jax is always a boom-or-bust player who needs to hit a big play to pay off, but I like him this week with his low price. He is $800 cheaper than Jamison Crowder, and this is a really nice spot to take a shot on him. Kirk Cousins is playing well and the Eagles secondary has struggled lately. The Eagles have lost three games in a row and in that stretch have allowed 95 yards and a score to Brandon LaFell (of all people!), 113 yards and two scores to Davante Adams and 104 yards to Doug Baldwin. If they had trouble corralling Brandon LaFell, I love Jackson's chances to get loose for a couple big plays.
Sammy Watkins, BUF vs. PIT ($5,300): This is another opportunity to get a highly skilled receiver at a reduced price. After one game of easing Watkins back into the mix, Watkins was on the field 49 snaps last week and saw nine targets from Tyrod Taylor. With the Steelers' explosive offense, this is a likely a spot where the Bills will either have to score to keep up or could have to play from behind. Both of those scenarios are good for Watkins, and I think Taylor takes a few shots on big plays to Watkins. Volume and game flow should be on Watkins' side this weekend, and with his talent and this low price, that is a situation I want a part of.
Other Options:Mike Evans, TB vs. NO ($8,900); Julio Jones, ATL at LA ($8,500); T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU ($7,500); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU at IND ($5,800); Doug Baldwin, SEA at GB ($6,800); Emmanuel Sanders, DEN at TEN ($5,700); Donte Moncrief, IND vs. HOU ($6,300); Adam Thielen, MIN at JAX ($4,700).
Cheapie Stab:
Will Fuller, HOU at IND ($4,500): After a sparkling start to the season that saw him go over 80 yards and score twice in his first four games, Fuller has slowed down to due injury and underperformance. He finally looked healthy the last two weeks with six targets in each game, and this could be a nice spot for him to make a big play in a game where they likely will have to play catch-up against the Colts.
TIGHT END
Zach Ertz, PHI v. WAS ($4,900): Ertz had a slow start to the season through the first eight weeks but has become a huge part of the offense the last five weeks, averaging 11.4 targets per game in that stretch, including 15 last week. Jordan Matthews may return this week as another weapon for Carson Wentz, but Ertz has seen plenty of targets the last month even when Matthews plays. Over their last five games, the Redskins have given up some big games to tight ends, including 102 yards Tyler Eifert, 69 yards to Kyle Rudolph and 105 yards to Jared Cook; and all three scored touchdowns in those games. The Redskins offense has clicked well lately, and the Eagles likely will have to throw the ball to stay in this game, putting Ertz in a great spot to more than earn his price this week.
Other Options:Jimmy Graham, SEA at GB ($5,500); Cameron Brate, TB vs. NO ($4,100); Coby Fleener, No at TB ($3,700).
Cheapie Stab:
No one I really love, but if you really wanted to save some cap this week at tight end, Jermaine Gresham is $2,500 and faces the Dolphins, who have struggled badly in the passing game (as noted above in the Carson Palmer blurb) and gave up two scores to Dennis Pitta last week.
DEFENSE
Minnesota, at JAX ($3,900): I am afraid chalk (and pricey) is the way to go on defense this week. Everyone knows I like to pick on Blake Bortles, but he did nothing to ease that last week throwing a pick-six in the Jaguars' loss to the Broncos. The Vikings have nine sacks in the last three weeks and should pressure Bortles into a number of mistakes during the game. The Vikings have the most DraftKings points (130) this season and this matchup is just too good to fade for me.
Other Option: Cincinnati, at CLE ($3,500).
Cheapie Stab:
Again, nothing that really jumps out to me, but if I had to take a shot on a cheaper defense, I would probably look to the Falcons at $3,100 facing Jared Goff and the Rams.
