DraftKings NFL: Week 13 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate includes 12 games and features some nice matchups to target for a change. We've gotten used to seeing a bunch of low totals, but that isn't the case this time around. The Chiefs-Bengals matchup has the highest at 53 and will no doubt be popular considering it's one of the marquee games of the season. There are some great options in the Jaguars-Lions matchup as both teams have bad defenses and are priced affordably. Same goes for Chargers-Raiders, which has shootout potential and some of the top projected players at each position. 

DFS aside, the story of the week will be the return of Deshaun Watson as he faces his old team. From a DFS perspective, that seems like a better spot for Nick Chubb, but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a chance on Watson. All that and we haven't gotten to Dolphins-49ers, two of the best teams in football and a spot that's going to be overlooked. The Eagles and Ravens will also go overlooked despite having QBs and pass-catchers capable of breaking slates. There's also Justin Fields, who will fancy his chances against Green Bay at home after the Packers were run over last week by Jalen Hurts. We're spoiled for options and that will spread the rostership more than usual. You can't play everyone, though. It's better to focus on one or two spots rather than try to get minimal exposure to all of them. Good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Travis Etienne at DET ($6,400)

Etienne apparently is fine after playing only five snaps last week before leaving with a foot injury. Assuming all reports are positive, he projects as the best value at RB alongside Josh Jacobs ($7,700). The Jaguars matchup against the Lions in Detroit is arguably the most favorable matchup of the week. Etienne was priced at $7,100 two weeks ago against the Chiefs and should be at least that in this spot, assuming he's healthy. As it stands he's going to be very popular in cash games, which is reason enough to roster him in that format. 

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. JAX ($7,100)

The Lions have a 26-point implied total, their highest of the season for a home matchup against Jacksonville, which has really struggled on defense recently. St. Brown is coming off another big game against the Bills last week when he caught nine passes for 122 yards and a TD. He's underpriced considering the volume he sees and the plus matchup for the Lions, which is why he projects alongside Davante Adams ($8,700) as the top point-per-dollar value. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Justin Fields vs. GB ($7,400)

QB Joe Burrow vs. KC ($6,900)

QB Deshaun Watson at HOU ($6,500)

QB Trevor Lawrence at DET ($5,900)

QB Derek Carr vs. LAC ($5,600)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. LAC ($7,900)

RB Dalvin Cook vs. NYJ ($7,200)

RB Travis Etienne at DET ($6,400)

RB Brian Robinson at NYG ($5,300), if Antonio Gibson is out

RB Jaylen Warren at ATL ($4,900), if Najee Harris is out

WR Davante Adams vs. LAC ($8,700)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. JAX ($7,100)

WR Christian Kirk at DET ($6,300)

WR Garrett Wilson at MIN ($5,300)

WR Zay Jones at DET ($4,900)

TE Pat Freiermuth at ATL ($4,300)

TE Foster Moreau vs. LAC ($3,600)

TE Harrison Bryant at HOU ($2,700)

D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers at ATL ($2,600)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Kansas City Chiefs (27.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (25.5)

CHIEFS

One of the marquee games of the season, the Kansas City-Cincinnati matchup has the highest total on the slate and obvious shootout potential as it features two of the most exciting offenses in the league. The Chiefs should be out for some revenge after they were beaten twice by the Bengals last season. Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) is now a considerable betting favorite to win his second MVP award. He's thrown for at least 320 yards in six consecutive games. His 22 fantasy points against the Rams last week were the fewest he'd scored since Week 3, but that's because Kansas City wasn't pushed at all. Assuming Cincinnati keeps it competitive, we should get four quarters of Mahomes airing it out. Many avoid stacking the Chiefs because they have so many pass-catchers, but a couple of absences make it easier. Mecole Hardman won't play and Kadarius Toney isn't expected to either. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,700) played only 29 snaps last week and drew three targets as he was eased back in after returning from a concussion. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,100) has been more involved recently, seeing at least four targets in three consecutive games. He can pay off his salary with one long touchdown. So could Justin Watson ($3,200), who actually led Kansas City WRs in snaps last week. If I had to choose a favorite WR, it'd be Skyy Moore ($3,100), who's caught five passes in back-to-back games. He benefits most from the absence of Hardman and Toney. Obviously Travis Kelce ($7,900) is the best option. He's already caught 12 TDs through 11 games, and I wouldn't stack Mahomes without him. The WRs are optional. Isiah Pacheco ($5,700) seems to have established himself as RB1 after 23 touches last week. He's had at least 15 in three straight and would make most sense paired with Burrow and a Bengals WR. 

BENGALS

It's been an up-and-down season for Cincinnati, which has dealt with key injuries and a shaky offensive line. But with Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase back, they'll fancy their chances at upsetting the Chiefs for the third time in less than a year. Joe Burrow ($6,900) always seems to get up for these big games. He shredded Kansas City for 446 yards and four TDs as he led the Bengals to an improbable comeback in the Week 17 matchup last season. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,900) was truly unstoppable as he posted a historic stat line of 11 catches for 266 yards and three scores. Chase is on track to play for the first time since Week 7 and won't be very popular coming off an injury. Tee Higgins ($7,200) picked up the slack in Chase's absence. He has back-to-back 100-yard games and at least seven catches in three straight. Having Chase back isn't a downgrade to Higgins, who should have an easier time getting open. It's probably a slight downgrade to Hayden Hurst ($3,500), though, who's unlikely to see the nine targets he did last week. Nevertheless, he's cheap enough to consider in stacks as he only needs to catch a few passes and find the end zone to make value. Joe Mixon ($7,100) will return after recovering from a concussion. I wouldn't be surprised if Samaje Perine ($6,000) still saw some work. Either way, I'm not really interested in the running backs. Especially if you think the Bengals will be playing from behind, this is a spot to target Burrow and the WRs. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase and/or WR Higgins + TE Kelce

Los Angeles Chargers (24.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (25.5)

CHARGERS

The Chargers usually find themselves in one of the higher total games because they play fast and don't have much of a defense. We just saw the Raiders get into a shootout with the Seahawks last week and that's exactly what could happen here. Justin Herbert ($7,200) is coming off a season-high 28 fantasy points after he threw three TDs for the first time since Week 2. The Chargers barely run the ball at this point, so the onus is likely to be on the passing game for what's a great matchup against one of the worst defenses in football. Austin Ekeler ($8,500) had just five carries last week and six two weeks before that. He's rushed for more than 47 yards only once in his last six games. He continues to see incredible receiving volume, however, which is why he projects so well. Ekeler caught 11 more passes last week. It was the third time in his last six that he's had double-digit receptions. No team has allowed more receiving yards to running backs than the Raiders. Keep an eye on the status of Mike Williams (ankle) but it seems as if he'll be out again. Keenan Allen ($6,500) and Joshua Palmer ($5,600) are both affordable and have the upside to significantly outperform those salaries. Assuming Williams is out, I'd prefer Palmer for the $900 savings. DeAndre Carter ($3,900) looks like one of the better cheap value options at WR. He's coming off his best game of the season after seven catches for 73 yards and a score. Gerald Everett ($4,400) won't be popular and could offer leverage in larger-field GPPs. 

RAIDERS

The Raiders just scored 40 points against a fast-paced Seattle team and have an even better matchup against the faster-paced Chargers, who also happen to have one of the worst run defenses in the league. That's good news for Josh Jacobs ($7,900), who just put up an outrageous 51 fantasy points last week after 39 touches for 303 scrimmage yards. Those are eye-popping numbers and with such a good matchup this week, it's no wonder that Jacobs projects as the top value at RB. Derek Carr ($5,600) also projects among the best value at his position. He's thrown at least two TDs in four consecutive games and is clearly underpriced for this matchup. It also looks like a nice spot for Davante Adams ($8,700), who's averaging at least 13 targets in his last four games and has five TDs in that span. Mack Hollins ($4,600) had four catches and found the end zone last week. As did Foster Moreau ($3,600), who drew seven targets. Either could be paired with Carr and Adams. The Raiders are easy to stack for as long as Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are out.

• Favorite Chargers Stack: QB Herbert + RB Jacobs + WR Carter + WR Palmer or WR Allen
• Favorite Raiders Stack: QB Carr + RB Ekeler + WR Adams + TE Moreau

Other Stack to Consider

QB Patrick Mahomes + TE Travis Kelce + WR Ja'Marr Chase +/- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling 

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown + WR Treylon Burks

QB Justin Fields + WR Chase Claypool or TE Cole Kmet + RB Aaron Jones

QB Joe Burrow + RB Isiah Pacheco + WR Ja'Marr Chase and/or WR Tee Higgins

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Tyreek Hill and/or WR Jaylen Waddle

QB Deshaun Watson + WR Amari Cooper + WR Nico Collins +/- TE David Njoku

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Amon-Ra St. Brown + WR Christian Kirk and/or WR Zay Jones

QB Kirk Cousins + WR Justin Jefferson + WR Garrett Wilson +/- TE T.J. Hockenson

QB Jimmy Garoppolo + RB Christian McCaffrey + WR Tyreek Hill + TE George Kittle

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Nick Chubb at HOU ($8,000)

There won't be a better spot for Chubb all season. The Browns have the second-ranked offensive line. The Texans have the lowest-ranked run defense. We've seen them give up huge games already to the likes of Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs among others. Deshaun Watson is making his first start and you'd expect the Browns to ease him in by leaning on the running game as much as possible. This is a perfect spot for that and Chubb has the upside for 200 yards. 

• WR Davante Adams vs. LAC ($8,700)

Adams averages less than 14 targets per game in his last four and has topped 125 receiving yards in three. Him and Josh Jacobs are just about the entire Raiders offense so long as Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller remain out. Jacobs is going to popular and Adams is priced in the same range as Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, which will temper his popularity some. It's difficult to spend up at WR and if I'm in that range, I want maximum exposure to Adams as he might not be quite as popular as he should be. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,600); WR Ja'Marr Chase ($7,900); WR A.J. Brown

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• RB Austin Ekeler at LV ($8,500)

I highlighted Ekeler in this section last week and it felt rather unlucky to see him score 25 fantasy points considering he only had five carries. He got there on the back of 11 catches on 15 targets that included a fourth quarter TD. Again, it's not that I don't like Ekeler but he's going to be popular, and I don't like relying on 10-plus catches from my RB to make value. He's also expensive and I'd rather use that salary on Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs or even a less popular Christian McCaffrey. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Garrett Wilson at MIN ($5,300)

Wilson had five catches for 95 yards and two TDs last week. More important, Mike White looked like an upgrade for the Jets at QB. They'll be without their top two RBs this week in Minnesota, where they're slight underdogs. That means any offense is likely to come though the air and there's a good chance they'll be playing from behind as well, which would be another boost to the passing-game. Wilson's price rose by $1,100 but he's still too cheap as the Jets' clear No. 1 option in this spot. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Jaylen Warren ($4,900); QB Trevor Lawrence ($5,900); WR Skyy Moore ($3,100)

The Bargain Bin

QB Trevor Lawrence at DET ($5,900)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo vs. MIA ($5,700)

QB Derek Carr vs. LAC ($5,600)

QB Kenny Pickett at ATL ($5,200)

RB Jaylen Warren at ATL ($4,900), if Najee Harris is out

RB Zonovan Knight at MIN ($4,600)

WR Zay Jones at DET ($4,900)

WR Treylon Burks at PHI ($4,600)

WR Mack Hollins vs. LAC ($4,600)

WR Nico Collins vs. CLE ($4,200)

WR DeAndre Carter at LV ($3,900)

WR Chase Claypool vs. GB ($3,800)

WR Skyy Moore at CIN ($3,200)

TE Harrison Bryant at HOU ($2,700)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Deebo Samuel vs. MIA

Samuel (quad) continues to deal with lower body injuries and his status for Sunday is uncertain. If he misses, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle would stand to benefit most. 

• RB Najee Harris at ATL

Harris is listed as questionable but said he plans to play. If he were to miss, Jaylen Warren ($4,900) would be viable in cash-games. 

• RB Antonio Gibson at NYG

Gibson (foot) is considered questionable after being limited at practice. Were he to miss, Brian Robinson would be viable in cash-games. 

Weather

• The only spot of real concern is in Chicago, where it's expected to be cold and windy. Gusts may reach 30 mph and that would have an impact on deeper throws. Maybe something to think about if you were planning on rostering Justin Fields and Chase Claypool.