This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Week 11 is already upon us as this season is just flying by. It seems like yesterday we were drafting DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson in Round 1! Let's look at some of my favorite DraftKings plays this week as I mix pricey and cheap guys; some will be chalky players I especially like, mixed with some sneakier, hopefully lower percentage gems. I will also toss in a few cheap stabs at each position if you find yourself needing to save some cap at one particular spot.
We will cover the standard DraftKings slate; so only the Sunday games will be covered. The Week 11 slate features three games with over/unders of least 50; Colts-Titans, Patriots-49ers and Redskins-Packers. It should be a competitive Sunday as there is only one game with a double-digit spread, the aforementioned Patriots-Niners game in Santa Clara.
QUARTERBACK
Andrew Luck, Indy (vs. TEN), $7,200 - Luck has thrived this year despite an offensive line that gets him hit almost every time he drops back. This week, he gets Tennessee in a matchup that features a nice and high over/under of 52. With the Colts D likely to give up a slew of points to the Titans' O led by red-hot Marcus Mariota, I like Luck's chances of solid game flow whether it is a back-and-forth game or a game where the Colts trail in the second half. Luck finally has all of his receivers healthy and ready to go off a bye as the Hilton/Moncrief/Dorsett trio is the healthiest it has been all season. Luck is likely to chuck it all over the yard, and with that volume; I like his chances for a big fantasy game.
Kirk Cousins, Wash, (vs. GB), $5,800 – This game should be high-scoring (over/under is 50.5) and the Skins likely will have to throw to keep up with the Green Bay offense. That setup is nice, but the price is even better at only $5,800. Cousins managed two touchdowns against a tough Vikings defense last week and is only a game removed from his huge 458-yard outing against the Bengals. On the other side of the ball, the Packers' secondary scares absolutely no one, and Marcus Mariota shredded it last week. The Packers' D has allowed nine passing touchdowns the last three weeks and seems ripe to give up more in what could turn into a shootout.
Other options:Tom Brady, NE (at SF), $7,800; Aaron Rodgers, GB (at WAS); $7,600; Marcus Mariota, TEN (at IND), $6,700; Matthew Stafford, DET (vs. JAX), $6,000.
Cheapie Stab:
Blake Bortles, Jax (at DET), $5,400 – Bortles looks terrible, but the situation sure is right at Detroit where he likely will have to throw it to keep the Jaguars in the game. Can the King of Garbage Time do enough to earn this cheap tag?
RUNNING BACK
Le'Veon Bell, Pitt (at CLE), $8,800 – Bell broke out of his scoreless 2016 last week with two scores against Dallas and is likely to be a high percentage play this week facing the winless Browns. When picking among the high-dollar running backs this week, Bell jumps off the page, especially with DraftKings' full-point PPR scoring. Despite the missed three games earlier this year, Bell incredibly leads all running back with 45 receptions out of the backfield (thank to RotoWire's Vlad Sedler for that stat!). With an average of more than seven catches a game, Bell is just pure gold in PPR. He is the highest salaried running back in DK this week, but maybe that price tag will keep his percentage from being too high because the situation could not be more primed for a huge outing.
LeSean McCoy, BUF (at CIN), $6,900 – Coming off the bye week, McCoy should be finally be fully recovered from his hamstring injury. If you take out the Miami game when McCoy was clearly not healthy, over his last three games, McCoy has run for 375 at a very strong 6.5 yards per carry. The Bengals' run D has been less than imposing recently, allowing more than four yards per carry in its last three games to each of the murderer's row of Isaiah Crowell, Rob Kelley and Rashad Jennings. Jennings in particular sticks out as he had run for a paltry two yards per carry in three games since returning from injury and exploded for 87 yards on only 15 carries Monday against Cincy. Shady is clearly in a talent class above the running backs the Bengals have faced lately and should be fed all day in Cincy.
LeGarrette Blount, NE (at SF), $6,400 – This one is likely to be as chalky as it comes, but there is no way not to mention it. Blount had three scores against the Seahawks on Sunday night and now travels west to face the porous 49ers D. Running backs have flat-out feasted on the Niners from the moment that NaVorro Bowman went out for the season. They did manage to hold David Johnson to only 55 rushing yards last week, but even then he added 46 yards through the air and scored twice. Prior to that game, the Niners had allowed 158 yards to Mark Ingram, 154 yards to Jacquizz Rodgers and 140 yards to LeSean McCoy. The Niners' D historically plays better at home, but this group is highly inexperienced and just cannot stop the run, especially when it has to account for the threat of Tom Brady through the air. If Rob Gronkowski sits (he is questionable), Blount will gain even more value as the Gronk goal-line threat would be eliminated. As a Niners fan, it pains me to suggest players against my team, but until they stop a running back, they have to be an automatic play against.
Other strong options:Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, (vs. BAL), $8,000; DeMarco Murray, Ten, (at IND), $8,200; Jay Ajayi, MIA (at LA), $6,800; Spencer Ware, KC (vs. TB), $6,000.
Cheapie Stab:
James Starks, GB (at WAS), $4,200 – Starks only had seven carries in his first game back, but was also targeted three times and, most important, was on the field for 55 snaps. At his bargain basement price, he doesn't have to do a lot, and if he is on the field that much again, he has a good chance to return value in this offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
Odell Beckham, Jr, NYG (vs. Chi), $8,500 – Of course in draft leagues, Beckham is a weekly starter you never think about, but in DFS, we have to pick and choose among the stud wide receivers each week, and it is extremely important to choose the right one to spend such a big percentage of your cap on. Beckham this week is a combination of his obviously immense skill with an extremely favorable matchup. While the Bears limited Mike Evans to only 66 yards last week, Jameis Winston still threw for 312 yards and two TDs. In the two games prior, the Bears allowed 76 yards and a score to Stefon Diggs, 95 yards and a score to Randall Cobb and 132 yards with two scores to Davante Adams. Beckham has had more than eight targets in every game and is incredibly averaging more than 10 targets per game. Beckham will get plenty of chances Sunday, and I expect at least one TD to go with a slew of receiving yards.
Donte Moncrief, Indy (at TEN), $6,100 – If you play Luck, you could stack him with Moncrief instead of T.Y. Hilton to save $1,600 to pay up for a stud RB or WR. Moncrief has played three full games all year (he left injured after nine snaps against Denver) and has managed a touchdown in all three of those games. As discussed in the Luck write-up, this game is expected to be high scoring and the Colts likely will have to throw a lot to either keep up or catch up. Moncrief has played two games since returning from his shoulder injury and was targeted heavily right away with 15 combined targets in those two games. Moncrief should benefit from last week's bye to get even more rest and knock off any rust that might have existed between him and Luck. The Titans allowed more than 100 yards to two wideouts last week, and as long as the game flow goes as expected, there should be plenty to go around for the Colts receivers. At $6,100, Moncrief is a great bargain to have a piece of in that game.
Adam Thielen, Minn (vs. ARZ), $3,800 – I was going to use Thielen as the cheapie stab but liked the setup at the price so much I decided to make him a full write-up play. Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said he plans on sticking All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson on Stefon Diggs. While the Vikings are not going to go away from Diggs all game just because of that, one would think they would need to game plan to get the ball in other places more than usual. Diggs averaged an insane 14 targets per game the last three weeks, and it seems doubtful he is fed quite that often with Peterson shadowing him. Thielen averages five targets per week, and if the Peterson news can move two or three targets away from Diggs to him, he presents an extremely solid value at only $3,800. Thielen has out-snapped Cordarrelle Patterson in every game but one and while Laquon Treadwell might be active, he has only been targeted once all year, so Thielen should be the No. 2 wide receiver option Sunday. Cheapies always carry some risk, but Thielen is in a nice spot this week, especially for someone less than $4,000.
Other options:Antonio Brown, PIT (at CLE), $9,500; T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. TEN), $7,700; Steve Smith, BAL (at DAL), $6,000; Jamison Crowder, WAS (vs. GB), $5,400.
Cheapie Stabs:
Eli Rogers, Pitt (at CLE), $4,300 - With Sammie Coates experiencing more issues with broken fingers, Rogers has 15 targets the last two weeks.
Tajae Sharpe, Tenn (at IND), $3,200 – At almost a minimum salary price, this early season darling could be a post-hype sleeper this week. Sharpe quietly has 58 yards or more in three of his last four games and scored last week. In what projects to be a high-scoring game, Sharpe is way too cheap for his level of production.
TIGHT END
Delanie Walker, Tenn (at IND), $5,700 – Again, we look at the IND-TEN matchup for another play. Walker has been especially hot lately with 20 targets the last two weeks, including 124 yards and a score last week. When these teams played in Week 7, Walker got loose for 84 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Mariota is on fire, and Walker is reaping the benefits. His price of $5,700 is still manageable, and with Ron Gronkowski banged up, Walker presents the most upside at the position to go with a solid floor.
Other options:Travis Kelce, KC (vs. TB), $4,700; Tyler Eifert, CIN (vs. BUF), $5,4000.
Cheapie Stab:
Ladarius Green, Pitt (at CLE), $2,500 – Green made his Steelers debut last week and while he only saw 12 snaps, it is important to note that he got four targets in those four snaps. They clearly wanted to use him when he was in the game and his dirt cheap $2,500, he could be a great way to save cap and you just may get a decent PPR game with a score out of him too.
DEFENSE
Miami (at LA), $2,900 – Defense is so tough every week as so much depends on a big return TD, which can be hard to predict. I like to target poor QBs who are likely to make mistakes while also trying to save some money for the skill players. The Dolphins facing Jared Goff in his first start is too good to pass up for their cheap $2,900 price. It is hard to believe it took Jeff Fisher this long to go away from Case Keenum, but that also leads me to believe Goff just is not ready to step in. I expect a number of mistakes in his first NFL start, and Miami should be able to take advantage of one for a big play. Miami has been coming on as a fantasy defense lately with 10 sacks in the last three games and six interceptions in the last two weeks. The Dolphins likely will be popular, but for good reason, and I am OK riding the chalk on this one.
Other options: Kansas City (vs. TB); $3,400; N.Y. Giants (vs. CHI), $3,500; Pittsburgh (at CLE), $3,700.
