This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Before we get to specific player recommendations and discussion of the Thursday game, let's take a look at some of the key injury situations that are still up in the air (as of early Thursday afternoon) for Week 10:
I have no interest in using Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) or Josh McCown (shoulder), but both Stefon Diggs ($5,100) and Gary Barnidge ($4,700) will need their respective quarterbacks healthy in order to warrant consideration. Barnidge would still only be a mediocre option, but if Bridgewater can play, Diggs will be a strong choice against the horrid Oakland secondary.
Speaking of the Raiders, it appears Amari Cooper (groin) is in danger of missing Sunday's game against the Vikings, which would leave Michael Crabtree ($5,800) as the unquestioned top target. With running back Latavius Murray (concussion) also uncertain, there's a decent chance it will just be the Crabtree-David Carr show, albeit in a pretty tough matchup. Even after his recent heroics, Crabtree remains somewhat underpriced.
A road matchup with the Rams is obviously far from ideal, but if Matt Forte (knee) misses another game, Jeremy Langford ($4,800) will be a decent option based on workload expectation alone. Of course, there's no shortage of running back options in the same price range, and Langford will probably need to make his living through the air in Sunday's game.
Here are the top plays for Week 10 on DraftKings:
Quarterback
Tom Brady at NYG ($8,600) – If anyone hasn't figured this out by now, let me clue you in: Brady should never be used in GPPs when the Patriots are double-digit favorites, but he's a top option anytime the game figures to be reasonably close. I'm not saying the Giants are actually good enough to beat the Patriots, but Big Blue should at least put up enough points to keep Brady active through most of the fourth quarter. Given that both teams throw a ton and play at a fast pace, the sky-high over/under (55) actually seems too low. I'm also a fan of Eli Manning ($7,400), though his price is more favorable on other sites.
Joe Flacco vs. JAX ($5,500) – There's little question that this pick is all about price and matchup, as Flacco was a tough sell even before Steve Smith suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. More than anything else, I'm endorsing the Baltimore-Jacksonville contest as an excellent source of passing-game value, given that both defenses are solid against the run but completely hopeless against the pass. I do think Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen will have some modest success, but the Jags are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry (best in the NFL) and 7.6 yards per pass (21st), so this could be a surprisingly high-volume game for Flacco. Blake Bortles ($5,600) is also a solid GPP choice, but he'll have a higher ownership percentage than Flacco and is more likely to turn in a complete dud.
Other options:Aaron Rodgers vs. DET ($7,500); Drew Brees at WAS ($7,400); Derek Carr vs. MIN ($5,800); Kirk Cousins vs. NO ($5,200)
Running Back
Darren McFadden at TB ($4,900) – With at least 16 DraftKings points in each of his last four games, McFadden has entered RB1 territory in season-long leagues. He's overcome some tricky matchups during that span, and while Sunday brings another solid opponent, the Dallas offensive line does have a sizable advantage over the Tampa Bay front seven. I also expect McFadden to be underowned, as LeGarrette Blount and James Starks carry the same $4,900 price tag and were the subjects of some favorable news this week. Of course, even with that favorable news, it's likely McFadden gets the most touches of the trio.
James Starks vs. DET ($4,900) – There are a bunch of strong options right in this prince range, and while Starks may not have the same assured workload as some of the other guys, his team is probably going to put up a bunch of points. You could perhaps make a similar argument for LeGarrette Blount, but I'm not so sure that the Dion Lewis' knee injury will have a big impact on the 250-pounder's workload, which could disappear into thin air if the Patriots intentionally go pass-heavy or end up playing from behind. Starks is also a much better receiver than Blount, as evidenced by last week's 6-83-1 receiving line. In case you missed the news, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said that Starks has surpassed Eddie Lacy as the team's top running back. That, of course, is the most significant impetus for this pick.
Other options:Todd Gurley vs. CHI ($7,300); DeAngelo Williams vs. CLE ($6,500); DeMarco Murray vs. MIA ($6200); Doug Martin vs. DAL ($5,600); Lamar Miller at PHI ($5,400); LeGarrette Blount at NYG ($4,900); Jeremy Langford at STL ($4,800); Theo Riddick at GB ($3,300)
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham vs. NE ($8,800) – Sure, Bill Belichick has had some success against elite offensive players in the past, but there's just no way that a high-volume game for Eli Manning doesn't lead to a big day from Beckham. Given that both teams love to throw and play at a fast pace, Beckham is a stone-cold lock for double-digit targets, and I'm honestly expecting around 15. Even if the Patriots do a nice job against him, Beckham should hit the 100-yard bonus before the end of the third quarter.
Alshon Jeffery at STL ($7,100) – While the matchup is obviously brutal, I think we've safely established that this is just way too low of a price for Jeffery, who owns a 33-492-2 receiving line on 53 targets in just four games (13.2 targets per game). Once his price crosses $7,500, then we can maybe consider fading him. For now, the combination of talent, price and workload is still too good to pass up, matchup be damned.
Allen Robinson at BAL ($6,700) – Robinson has been one of the most consistent performers at his position this season, offering an ideal mix of target volume, big-play opportunities and red-zone work. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that he's a strong play against a leaky Baltimore secondary that makes a habit of gift-wrapping long touchdowns to wideouts. As if he weren't already a great play, Robinson may benefit from extra targets in the event of an Allen Hurns (foot) absence. But even if Hurns plays, Robinson will probably be my favorite non-ODBJ option at wide receiver for Week 10.
Other options:DeAndre Hopkins at CIN ($8,700); Mike Evans vs. DAL ($6,800); Randall Cobb vs. DET ($6,700); Michael Crabtree vs. MIN ($5,800); Kamar Aiken vs. JAX ($4,500); Brandon LaFell at NYG ($4,100); Michael Floyd at SEA ($3,800); Dorial Green-Beckham vs. CAR ($3,200)
Tight End
Crockett Gillmore vs. JAX ($2,800) – If you're buying into a big week from Joe Flacco, why not take one of his main targets for just $2,800? It doesn't hurt that Gillmore is actually a pretty good player, though he's more of a solid all-around tight end than a standout receiving threat. Realistically, he's not going to get the 100-yard bonus, but 60+ yards and a pair of touchdowns is absolutely in play. Flacco loves lobbing it up to his tight ends in the red zone, and Gillmore ran more pass routes (31) than any of his teammates in Baltimore's previous game, according to Pro Football Focus. If you're looking for something a bit more comfortable, I have no argument whatsoever against visiting Gronktown this weekend.
Other options:Rob Gronkowski at NYG ($8,000); Jimmy Graham vs. ARI ($4,900); Zach Ertz at MIA ($3,000)
Team Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles vs. MIA ($2,700) – I'll stick with my favorite defense from last week, as the Eagles are once again oddly underpriced despite heading home to Philadelphia in the wake of a strong Week 9 showing. The Philly defense should have plenty of opportunities to pile up sacks and turnovers, as the Dolphins are quick to abandon the run when playing from behind, which will likely be their fate in Sunday's game. Maybe I'm giving the Eagles too much credit, but I just don't see this game staying close. Now that the silly Dan Campbell narrative has been put to rest, I think we can all accept that the gap between these two coaching staffs is massive.
Other options: Cincinnati Bengals vs. HOU ($3,300); Green Bay Packers vs. DET ($3,200); Baltimore Ravens vs. JAX ($2,800); Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. DAL ($2,500); Tennessee Titans vs. CAR ($2,200)
Thursday Night Game
This one is pretty easy to fade across the board. Sammy Watkins ($5,000) may seem tempting after Sunday's huge performance, but he's as likely to see two targets as he is 10. He also figures to spend a good chunk of the game matched up with Darrelle Revis, who is still the better player by a significant margin, at least for another season or two. If you must, Chris Ivory ($5,900) and Eric Decker ($5,300) are the two best plays from this game. Personally, I won't be touching this game in any of my Thursday contests.
