This is our Week 12 Sunday Night Football DFS breakdown, running through all the relevant player salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel while forecasting the potential game outcomes as the Los Angeles Rams face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Los Angeles.
The Week 12 Sunday Night Football game between the home-team Rams (8-2) and visiting Buccaneers (6-4) could be a momentous matchup for the NFC playoff picture – the Rams would largely cement themselves as the top team in the conference with the win while sending the Buccaneers to a desperate place as they cling to the lead in their otherwise weak division.
The Buccaneers have dealt with injury complications all year and this game is no exception, but at least the Tampa offensive line is finally getting healthy. Chris Godwin (fibula) returns but in an unspecified capacity, while the latest injury twist for the Buccaneers is at corner with Jamel Dean (hip) out and rookie second-round pick Benjamin Morrison (hamstring) questionable. The Buccaneers are 7.5-point underdogs with the over/under at 49.5.
QUARTERBACK
Matthew Stafford ($10800 DK, $11200 FD) isn't a mandatory pick since his passing production is so reliably channeled to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, making it easy to capture Stafford's production without picking him specifically, but Nacua and Adams is sometimes all Stafford needs to get to a mammoth box score in his own right. There are plenty of cases where picking all of Stafford, Nacua and Adams on the same card paid off for the investor, and this could very well be another one of those games.
Baker Mayfield ($10600 DK, $11600 FD) will hopefully get a bit of a boost with the return of Chris Godwin (fibula), but it's not clear whether Godwin will be all that close to full strength. The good news at least is the Tampa Bay offensive line is relatively healthy at this point – with Luke Goedeke back at right tackle the Buccaneers should be able to run competently, which would keep Mayfield's down-and-distance situations manageable. The Rams pass rush can be challenging from the interior, but if the Buccaneers can withstand that rush then Mayfield would be a fine candidate to push for 20 fantasy points.
RUNNING BACK
Kyren Williams ($10000 DK, $12000 FD) might not find the interior running easy against the Vita Vea-led Tampa run defense, but Williams' usage is always high and in games where Stafford produces well Williams regular sees touches in scoring range, which would offset any decline in the rushing yardage dictated by Vea's presence. Blake Corum ($3000 DK, $7200 FD) is a capable player who sees occasional usage, but for Corum to have a properly productive game he probably needs to steal opportunity from Williams. Picking Corum, in other words, is to somewhat aggressively fade Williams, and for that to pay off on a one-game slate is possible but not a common occurrence.
Sean Tucker ($6400 DK, $8400 FD) is an awfully tempting pick after breaking out for a big game against Buffalo in Week 11, producing 140 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. Rachaad White ($7000 DK, $8600 FD) is a good receiver and should see some amount of opportunity in this game, too, but Tucker looks like a clearly better runner and Tucker is no slouch as a receiver in his own right. White should be less owned to a significant degree, but if Tucker is a trendy pick then the reasons why are obvious. He might be a game-changer for the Buccaneers offense, especially while they wait for the rest of the offense to get healthy.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
It's very rarely advisable to fade Puka Nacua ($11800 DK, $12800 FD) and to a lesser extent Davante Adams ($9800 DK, $10400 FD), because if the Rams offense is at all functional it requires at least Nacua and often both players to produce at a standout level. The Rams run so much two- and three-TE personnel that the target competition for Nacua and Adams largely does not exist, and they both are usually very efficient with their usually high usage. Wideouts like Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell are capable enough as subpackage players, but their infrequent usage probably makes them best understood as punt plays.
It's also generally punt-play territory to approach any of the Rams tight ends, but there could be some real value there as a component of a Rams passing game stack. Colby Parkinson ($2400 DK, $4000 FD) and Davis Allen ($2000 DK, $1800 FD) both block often but with Tyler Higbee out the playing time and pass-catching opportunities of both players could rise in this setting. Rookie Terrance Ferguson ($1600 DK, $3200 FD) doesn't have the same snap assurance as the two veteran Rams tight ends, but the second-round pick clearly has the most long-term pass-catching upside of the group. All three are justifiable picks, though they should largely be understood as a pursuit for cap relief, and picking more than one would be unorthodox at the least.
Emeka Egbuka ($9600 DK, $9800 FD) has cooled off slightly and gets a challenging matchup here, but Egbuka's price is favorable for a player who should function as the clear WR1 for Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin ($7600 DK, $5400 FD) is cheap enough to justify the risk in picking him in a game where his playing time might be limited, but Godwin's effectiveness and playing time are both concerns. Whatever slack Godwin leaves at receiver would project to land on Tez Johnson ($4000 DK, $7400 FD) and Sterling Shepard ($3600 DK, $7000 FD), though tight end Cade Otton ($5400 DK, $5800 FD) is also a fine candidate to emerge as the second-leading Tampa Bay pass catcher after Egbuka in this game. Tight ends like Payne Durham and Devin Culp are punt plays.
KICKER
Chase McLaughlin ($5000 DK, $6200 FD) is one of the better kickers in the league, especially from long range, so he's a plenty justifiable pick even if you're projecting the Buccaneers to lose or otherwise struggle on offense. McLaughlin can drill five-point kicks about as well as any kicker aside from Brandon Aubrey.
Harrison Mevis ($4600 DK, $6600 FD) has proven next to nothing yet in his audition as the Rams' starting kicker, but at least he's made all nine of his extra-point attempts. The Rams should be in scoring range, at least, so if Mevis is any good he should get the chance to prove it soon.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Todd Bowles is a very good defensive game planner and the Rams offense will need to play at a high level to get the better of the Buccaneers ($4400 DK, $6400 FD) defense, but the Rams have generally played at a high level all year and the Tampa defense is well short of full strength. The pass rush is compromised with players like Calijah Kancey and Haason Reddick out, and their normally excellent cornerback personnel is undermined by injuries to Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison.
The Rams ($4800 DK, $6800 FD) are likely better situated. Their defense is operating at full strength and by now they've proven they're one of the better groups in the league. There's a certain amount of peril in betting against a quarterback like Mayfield, but he has to have his bad days at some point and the Rams tend to make quarterbacks play less than their best.
