This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Week 3 of the NFL season is where we begin to get some clarity on what is real and what is not. The first two weeks have been overshadowed by off-the-field controversies and injuries, but we are starting to get a better idea of what to focus on. After scanning through the spreads and totals this week, it seems as if Vegas is as confused as we are. There are eight games for which the spread is set by a field goal or less, six games differentiated by a touchdown or less, and only one game has a team favored by double digits.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-3) (52 O/U)
As usual, I like starting with the highest total of the week. This game has over written all over it, but division rivalry games are usually more closely contested than one might think (unless it's the Bucs and Falcons). This line has been seeing the most movement of the week. It opened at Detroit -2, went to a "pick 'em", and creeped all the way up to Detroit -3. With most the public money on the Packers, there is reason to believe sharps are controlling this line. The game's total has been pretty consistent, remaining steady at 52 throughout most of the week. There is a lot to like in this game, DFS wise, with two high-powered offenses that can put up points at will. Although I won't specifically recommend either quarterback, I have no problem rostering Rodgers or Stafford. I just think there is better value out there, price-wise, across the industry.
Players To Consider
Joique Bell/Reggie Bush, RBs, Detroit Lions – I decided to bunch these two together simply because neither has an edge. Both are fit for tournament plays, but I wouldn't risk them in cash games. This situation is eerily similar to that of the Patriots, where it's difficult to predict the hot hand. The Packers' defense has struggled mightily against the run so far this year, giving up 176.5 yards per game – good for 31st in the league. Keep in mind these are small sample sizes at this point in the season.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions – With Tramon Williams likely shadowing Calvin Johnson, Tate should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game. Tate has seen 14 targets in the first two games and is averaging 13.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. There is a lot to like with Tate, especially with him coming at a reasonable price throughout the industry, and he could be a great cash game WR3 if you manage your money properly.
Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb, WRs, Green Bay Packers – Similar to the Lions' running back situation, I grouped these two together. It really comes down to "pick your poison" here – both should rack up points, but Cobb's price is lower on most sites. Either way, you can't go wrong since they both will cause havoc for Detroit's depleted secondary.
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets (-3) (45.5 O/U)
This line has seen quite a bit of movement throughout the week. It opened up at Jets -1, and has creeped all the way up to Jets -3. The game feels like a trap to me, personally, since most probably view the Bears as the clear favorite after Sunday night's win on the road in San Francisco. DFS wise, I keep coming back to this game. Something really intrigues me about Jay Cutler and his strong receiver core against the weak Jets secondary. On the Jets side, there isn't a lot to like, in my opinion. Yes, the Bears' defense isn't what it used to be, but the Jets' offense simply cannot be trusted.
Players To Consider
Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears – I love Cutler this week. He has massive upside and is reasonably priced considering the matchup. He has three targets who can do serious damage, and Matt Forte is no slouch himself. Cutler is one of the safest bet at quarterback. Even when he has an off game – Week 1 against Buffalo, for example – he can put up 20-plus points.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears – Jeffery is a tall, strong receiver who will tower over the Jets' corners. I like him more in full-point, PPR DFS sites, but I will not discriminate against sites that only offer a half-point. It is going to very tough for the Jets to contain both Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, who caught three touchdowns last week.
Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago Bears – I know it is starting to sound redundant, but I really am all over the Bears this week. Remember, these are all players to consider - you don't have to use every single one in your lineup.
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) (48.5 O/U)
This is an interesting matchup for a number of reasons – the obvious one being that the last time these teams met, Seattle's defense sent the Broncos to the worst Super Bowl loss in two decades. Denver comes in 2-0 but hasn't shown the near-invincibility that was on display so often in 2013. I wouldn't put too much stock into the Seahawks' loss last week, as they were probably looking ahead to this game. I do like a few players in this matchup based on price alone. However, I would suggest avoiding Manning in cash games. The Seattle defense is simply too talented, and it's a risk to play any quarterback against that secondary. One thing you have to remember is that the Seahawks are a different team at home, and the 12th man plays a significant role in their success. We've seen them chew up and spit out elite QBs there in the past, and I would not be surprised if Manning is a victim this weekend.
Players To Consider
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks – Based on price alone on DraftKings ($6,800), you need to strongly consider owning Wilson. He has a high floor, and pairing him with one of his receivers (Percy Harvin) will create some cap relief for you to work with. Worst-case scenario: I see Wilson giving you 20 DraftKings points. I am not as bullish on him on FanDuel though.
Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks – As mentioned above, pairing Harvin with Wilson can help save some cap space. Harvin is reasonable priced at $5,400 on DraftKings, which is a steal for a player who will get looks on the ground, through the air, and as a return man.
Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos – As of right now, it looks as though Welker will be suiting up for Sunday's game. I feel more comfortable slotting him in as my WR2 in tournaments since I don't know what to expect from him. He should see plenty of targets, regardless, as I expect Demaryius Thomas to see double coverage frequently.
Julius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos – Even back in his Colts days, Manning loved feeding his tight ends, and we've seen him go to Thomas plenty already this season. The thing I like the most about Thomas is that he is frequently targeted in the red zone. If you want to pay up for a top-tier tight end, you need to consider Thomas.
Additional options
Here are a few more players to consider this week:
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals - If A.J. Green doesn't play, I expect Bernard to be the focal point of the Bengals' offense, as he was last week. After seeing what DeMarco Murray did to the Titans' defense in Week 2, it would not surprise me to see Bernard have another big day.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins – Garcon was a non-factor in last week's game against the Jaguars, but I doubt that will be the case against Philadelphia. Garcon has worked well with Kirk Cousins in the past, and you should be able to buy low on him on most sites.
Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis Rams – Cook is my sleeper of the week. We've seen the Cowboys' defense get annihilated by tight ends two weeks in a row, and if the trend is true, rostering Cook could pay huge dividends.
