This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Until a few years ago, my idea of pairing food was things like IPA and pizza, not Cabernet and filet mignon. With the popularity of weekly fantasy football and large field tournaments, one of the most successful strategies is pairing skill position players from the same team. I wanted to look into the numbers to see when it makes the most sense and where new players might be making a mistake when taking too many players from the same team.
Data is taken from 2013 using FanDuel scoring. I tried to keep the data set to 30-35 percent of the field. These targets by position should have you getting 110 points on FanDuel. When I looked at the teams that cashed in tournaments, 110 points was the lowest amount you could go. 140-170 points are your target if you are trying to win first place, depending on the size of the field.
Benchmarks by Position (Positive Outcome/Total):
- QB 162/534 =20+ points
- RB 318/985 = 12+ points
- WR 420/1506=12+ points
- TE 188/632=10+ points
- K 188/512=10+ points
- D/ST 177/512=10+ points
Total = 110 (Target to cash in contests)
Pairing Two Skill Position Players
QB+TE 96/350 (27 percent) - 96 games in which a quarterback was 20+ points and tight end 10+ points on the same team, out of 350 times where a player scored that amount in a given week over 2013.
- Drew Brees/Jimmy Graham – 7
- Peyton Manning/Julius Thomas – 7
- Cam Newton/Greg Olsen – 5
- Philip Rivers/Antonio Gates – 4
RB+WR 182/738 (25 percent)
- Bears – 13 (Forte/Marshall/Jeffrey)
- Broncos – 13 (Moreno/Ball/Decker/Thomas/Welker)
- Eagles – 10 (McCoy/Jackson/Avant/Cooper)
- Patriots – 10 (Ridley/Bolden/Vereen/Blount/Amendola/Thompkins/Dobson/Edelman)
- Redskins – 9 (Morris/Helu/Young/Robinson/Garcon)
- Chargers – 8 (Mathews/Woodhead/Allen/Royal)
- Steelers – 8 (Bell/Brown)
- Lions – 7 (Bell/Bush/C Johnson)
- Raiders – 7 (Jennings/McFadden/Reece/Streater/Holmes/Moore)
QB+WR 136/582 (23 percent)
- Broncos - 11
- Bears – 8
- Lions/Eagles/Saints – 7
- Bengals/Patriots/Chargers/Seahawks/Redskins - 6
QB+RB 96/480 (20 percent)
- Eagles - 10
- Broncos – 9
- Bears - 8
- Patriots/Chiefs/Chargers – 6
WR+TE 117/609 (19 percent)
RB+TE 98/506 (19 percent)
Pairing Three Skill Position Players
QB+WR+WR 59/582 (10 percent)
QB+WR+TE 68/770 (9 percent)
QB+RB+WR 84/900 (9 percent)
RB+WR+TE 63/926 (7 percent)
While taking two skill position players on the same team is a viable strategy, taking three is too risky and the percentages drop considerably. Often times it is tempting to take three players from high powered offenses like the Broncos, Eagles, or Bears, but the return is not there.
Pairing Kickers
RB+K 114/506 (23 percent)
- Patriots - 11
- Broncos - 8
- Bills/Bears/Colts - 6
- Eagles/Chargers/Seahawks - 5
WR+K 127/608 (21 percent)
- Patriots - 9
- Broncos - 8
- Bills – 6
- Bears/Cowboys/Colts/Dolphins/Jets - 5
TE+K 76/377 (20 percent)
QB+K 63/350 (18 percent)
It makes sense that teams with a strong running game will have the higher scoring kickers because they are grinding it out instead of airing it out down the field.
Pairing Defenses
K+D/ST 78/365 (21 percent)
- Colts – 7
- Patriots/Seahawks/49ers - 6
- Bills - 5
- Cardinals – 4
The trend here is that good defenses put their kickers in position to have more opportunities. I was very surprised that the Colts were the top team here, but playing in a dome, weak division, and with a good quarterback that can move the ball, it all adds up.
RB+D/ST 104/496 (21 percent)
- Chiefs – 8
- Seahawks - 7
- Bears/Bengals/Patriots - 6
- Cardinals/Broncos/Lions/Colts/49ers – 5
Most of the teams here were heavily reliant on the run game and their defense in 2013. Playing ball control, keeping the opponents off the field, and then forcing opponents to throw when they were on offense.
WR+D/ST 104/597 (17 percent)
- Seahawks - 8
- Broncos - 7
- Bengals/Steelers - 6
- Cardinals/Browns/Patriots - 5
Some of the same teams appear on WR+D/ST and RB+D/ST. While you don't want to take RB+WR+D/ST, you can take two of them depending on the matchup.
QB+D/St 53/339 (15 percent)
TE+D/ST 49/365 (13 percent)
Pairing Skill Position with K+D/ST
RB+K+D/ST 48/683 (7 percent)
WR+K+D/ST 45/785 (6 percent)
QB+K+D/ST 23/527 (4 percent)
The numbers are very low and it shows that you never want to take a skill position player on the same team with a kicker and defense. It is OK to take one skill position player and pair with a kicker or defense, but doing all three together will put you in the losing column.
