This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!
Over the last several weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defense/special teams in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games on DraftKings. While most of the positions carry over to FanDuel, the running back and wide receiver positions are different because of the 0.5 point per reception on FanDuel vs. 1 point per reception on DraftKings. Also, DraftKings has a three point bonus for 100 yards rushing or receiving which puts a higher emphasis on the elite players who get a bigger workload.
As we shift to FanDuel, there is more emphasis on total yards and touchdowns than receptions. The salary cap is $60,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 120 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Rob Kelley was $5400 in Week 11 and scored 31.7 points. The multiplier calculation would be (31.7/$5400)*1000=5.9x value.
So if we know that 120 points is the target and $60,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be
I'm really loving writing another article in this series that is focused on helping new players improve their DFS game. It has become my favorite piece of the week and I could write 10 of these if RotoWire needed them!
Over the last several weeks, I have written about the quarterback position, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends and defense/special teams in how to approach them in GPPs and Cash games on DraftKings. While most of the positions carry over to FanDuel, the running back and wide receiver positions are different because of the 0.5 point per reception on FanDuel vs. 1 point per reception on DraftKings. Also, DraftKings has a three point bonus for 100 yards rushing or receiving which puts a higher emphasis on the elite players who get a bigger workload.
As we shift to FanDuel, there is more emphasis on total yards and touchdowns than receptions. The salary cap is $60,000 and the average cash game score in most weeks is around 120 points. The reason that is important is we need to determine what "multiplier" or "value" is required to hit. A "multiplier" is calculated by taking the players' score, dividing by the salary, and multiplying by 1000. For example, Rob Kelley was $5400 in Week 11 and scored 31.7 points. The multiplier calculation would be (31.7/$5400)*1000=5.9x value.
So if we know that 120 points is the target and $60,000 is the salary cap, the target for any projection on a player needs to be at least 2x. The challenge in this is finding the most consistent players from week to week that will hit 2x value. It is a balance between what positions to pay up for versus where you decide to take value. Often times the matchups and pricing will dictate your weekly strategy.
Let's look at the wide receiver position and build a system to cash game targets.
WR Stats (1355 total through Week 14)
Average Score – 8.6
Average Salary – $5841
Average Value – 1.45
WR (Hit at least 2x – 372 through Week 14)
Average Score – 16.9
Average Salary – $5956
Average Value – 2.85
Average Pct Hit Value – 27%
WR (Hit at least 2x + 10 points – 355/1355) 26%
WR (Hit at least 2.5x – 234/1355) 17%
WR (Hit at least 3.0x – 139/1355) 10%
Week – (# of players to hit 2x or greater)
Week 1 – 30
Week 2 – 30
Week 3 – 23
Week 4 – 26
Week 5 – 22
Week 6 – 26
Week 7 – 25
Week 8 – 29
Week 9 – 27
Week 10 – 33
Week 11 – 23
Week 12 – 31
Week 13 – 21
Week 14 – 26
Weekly Average – 26
Salary Range (Number hit 2x/Total Number, Percent, Value)
$4500-$4900 = 93/403 (23%, 2.9x)
$5000-$5900 = 118/413 (28%, 2.9x)
$6000-$6900 = 84/279 (30%, 2.8x)
$7000-$7900 = 49/177 (27%, 2.8x)
$8000-$8900 = 20/62 (32%, 2.9x)
$9000-$9700 = 8/20 (40%, 2.4x)
The numbers have not revealed a lot as of yet, unlike other positions. I will tell you that picking wide receivers for cash games on FanDuel has been the hardest I can remember in the last five seasons. The top 12 wide receivers in 2015 averaged 16.8 PPG versus in 2016 where it has only been 14.6. That is a -13% drop. The next 12 receivers averaged 13.3 in 2015 compared to 12.0 in 2016, which is a 10% drop.
Wide receivers with the biggest drop off from 2015 to 2016 include:
Keenan Allen, John Brown, Martavis Bryant, Julian Edelman, Eric Decker, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Hurns, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Calvin Johnson (retired), Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, Steve Smith, Sammy Watkins.
It has been tougher because of the amount of turnover and reduced scoring at the position, but what I have found is that looking at matchups has become even more of a factor when taking wide receivers for cash on FanDuel. Also, look at standard deviation to see who are the players that play best in cash games.
Additional Statistics
- A top 12 wide receiver (points per game) averages 14.6 points per game
- The 13th to 24th wide receiver (WR2) averages 12 points per game
- The 25th to 36th wide receiver (WR3) averages 10 points per game
In order to consistently win cash games on FanDuel, you need to hit at least a WR1+WR2+WR2 in a given week. Your target score for all three wide receivers should be a minimum of 40 points with a ceiling of 50 that can help overcome another position that does not hit value. On average, about just 18 wide receivers will hit at least 12 points which is about a 29% hit rate if you only look at the top 24 wide receivers (7/24).
Additional Team Statistics
- The following teams have allowed the most opposing wide receivers to score at least 10 points and hit 2x value:
- Browns, Titans – 16
- Niners – 15
- Panthers, Bucs, Eagles, Packers, Cowboys, Chiefs – 14
- The following teams have allowed the fewest opposing wide receivers to score at least 15 points and hit 2x value:
- Vikings, Steelers – 3
- Jaguars, Chargers, Redskins, Bengals, Broncos – 4
- Patriots, Colts, Saints – 5
Something to keep in mind when using season-long statistics is that defenses adjust, so looking since Week 10, here are the numbers:
- The following teams have allowed the most opposing wide receivers to score at least 10 points and hit 2x value:
- Packers – 8
- Niners, Eagles, Titans – 7
- Cowboys, Vikings, Cardinals – 6
- The following teams have allowed the fewest opposing wide receivers to score at least 10 points and hit 2x value:
- Jaguars – 1
- Bucs, Lions, Falcons, Bengals – 2
Player Statistics
- The following players have hit at least 2x value and 10 points this season:
