This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
With the NFL season just weeks away, I wanted to go back and look at the 2015 season by the numbers. If you have been following my work here on RotoWire you know that you get two things from me - analytics and game theory.
I'm going to break down each position by the numbers – the highs, lows, cash game, tournament, Vegas strategy etc. This week, we'll look at quarterback.
This is mostly geared toward new players and beginners so they get a feel for what to look at when selecting their quarterbacks, but some of the numbers should be useful for all players.
QUARTERBACK
Average Points - 17.2
Average Salary - $7,350
Salary Range - $4,800-$9,700
Average FanDuel X (Multiplier) - 2.34 (FD Pts / Salary *1000)
Standard Deviation - 7.76
High Score - Drew Brees, 47.5, Week 8 vs Giants
Low Score - Peyton Manning, -2.6 Week 10 vs Chiefs
Top Scorer - Cam Newton, 24.9
Low Scorer - Nick Foles, 9.6 (11 games)
Average Point Per Game
Home - 17.8
Road - 16.7
Home Favorite - 19.0
Road Favorite - 18.2
Home Dog - 15.4
Road Dog - 15.9
There is a clear edge taking quarterbacks who are favored.
Total Range
-7.5 or higher - 20.2
-3.5 to -7 - 18.5
0 to -3 - 18.3
+1 to +3 - 16.6
+3.5 to +7 - 15.9
+7.5 or higher - 13.4
The numbers here also show that quarterbacks with higher point spreads score more points.
Best Cash-Game Plays (Average points over 17.2 and lowest standard deviation)
Standard deviation is important when determining cash-game players because you want results that are more consistent and predictable. You can calculate SD in Excel using the STD formula similar to SUM or AVG.
Jameis Winston -18.13 PPG/3.88 SD
Carson Palmer - 20.02/5.11
Andrew Luck - 20.41/5.51
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 19.20/6.66
Tyrod Taylor - 19.79/6.67
Best Passing Defenses to Target for Cash Games
Titans - 20.37 PPG/6.29 SD
Jaguars - 20.22/7.51
Bears - 19.83/7.42
Redskins - 18.85/7.20
Bucs - 18.84/7.31
Best Passing Defenses to Target for Tournaments
Saints - 24.53 PPG/7.93 SD
Giants - 21.27/10.07
Browns - 18.58/7.96
Eagles - 20.06/7.89
Ravens - 18.00/9.89
Worst Defenses to Target for Cash Games
Broncos - 13.19 PPG/6.21 SD
Bengals - 13.66/6.39
Cardinals - 14.35/5.68
Falcons - 15.08/5.90
Cowboys - 15.93/5.39
Worst Defenses to Target for Tournaments
Seahawks - 13.73 PPG/7.98 SD
Chiefs - 14.15/9.35
Panthers - 15.17/8.29
Patriots - 15.74/8.47
Texans - 16.30/8.43
Best Tournament Plays (Average points over 17.2 and highest standard deviation)
Marcus Mariota - 18.37/10.84
Drew Brees - 21.09/9.78
Ben Roethlisberger - 19.58/9.58
Cam Newton - 24.94/8.80
Kirk Cousins - 18.14/8.56
Biggest Home/Road Splits (QBs with the biggest edge at home)
Drew Brees - 26.30 vs. 15.14
Ben Roethlisberger - 24.65 vs. 15.36
Kirk Cousins - 21.76 vs. 14.02
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 21.33 vs. 16.36
Cam Newton - 26.99 vs. 22.89
Top 10 QB Performances
• Only 3 quarterbacks were priced $9,000 or higher
• 7 quarterbacks were priced $6,700-$7,900
• The highest favorite line was -5.5, and the total was 51.5
• 6 games were at home, 4 were on the road
• 7 of 10 games took place Week 8 or later
• The Giants and Saints were the only defenses to show up more than once
Top 10 Best Value QB Performances
• 6 of the 10 also were on the Top 10 Performance list
•Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota appear twice
• 7 of 10 games were at home
• The salary range was $6,000-$7,900
• Chicago is the only defense that appears more than once
• The highest favorite was -4.0; and the highest dog was +6.5
• The highest total was 51.5, the lowest was 41.5
The takeaway with quarterbacks in daily fantasy football is that you can find value in the lower-to-mid price range. Matchups and Vegas data can play a huge part in finding value for your weekly lineups.
