This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Dallas Cowboys 
at Washington Commanders 
NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Week 18
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The Cowboys were able to squeeze out a controversial 20-19 win over the Detroit Lions on Saturday night in Week 17, their second straight victory. Coupled with the Eagles' surprise loss to the Cardinals, Dallas is now in position to clinch the No. 2 seed and the NFC East with a win in this game against their longtime rival.
The Commanders took their seventh consecutive loss in Week 17, dropping a 27-10 decision to the visiting San Francisco 49ers. The NFL's worst-kept secret going into this final weekend is that this will serve as Ron Rivera's – and for that matter, the majority of his coaching staff's – final game in the nation's capital.
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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Betting Odds for NFL Week 18
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Cowboys -850 (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Commanders +640 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: Cowboys -13 (DraftKings Sportsbook) / Commanders +13.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 46.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook) / Under 47.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Commanders were always underdogs in this game since the game first went on the board in the summer, but the Cowboys' projected advantage at that point was -3. However, that figure is now between 13 and 13.5 points, with the massive gulf in motivation between the teams, not to mention the difference in caliber of starting quarterback, playing a major role.
The projected total has been on quite the rollercoaster this week alone, going from 49 points in the immediate aftermath of Week 17 results, plummeting all the way to 44, and shooting back up to 47 with the betting public's help.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Betting Picks This Week
The NFL is certainly an unpredictable league, and there are surprises every week. Nevertheless, there are always a certain number of scenarios each season for which the case for a pick is self-evident, and this season-closing clash between two storied rivals is one such example.
Every team relishes the opportunity for home playoff games, but the Cowboys arguably covet those even further. Not only has Dallas experienced multiple disappointing postseason endings under the current regime, but the team has simply been a juggernaut at home and a bit more inconsistent when having to travel.
Therefore, despite the fact there's a very good chance the Cowboys' defense would eventually overwhelm Sam Howell – who's in line to start Week 18 despite Jacoby Brissett reportedly being healthy enough to play – under any circumstance, I don't see head coach Mike McCarthy taking any chances at a close game. That means I fully envision the Cowboys coming out guns blazing on offense right out of the gate and not taking the foot off the pedal until some point in the fourth quarter.
Division games can certainly produce some crazy outcomes, and there's a chance the Commanders want to play hard for Rivera in his swan song, although that's admittedly a bit far-fetched given how the team has looked in recent weeks. With the Cowboys having faltered in unexpected spots and this being a road game against a team with nothing to lose, I see Dallas taking every precaution to prevent the unthinkable.
I'll hedge a bit on the 13-to-13.5-point spread that's out there and instead go with FanDuel's alternate figure, which can still be had at a reasonable price.
Cowboys at Commanders Best Bets, Alternate spread: Cowboys -11.5 (-128 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Prediction
Cowboys 31, Commanders 17
The Cowboys have the superior personnel, exponentially more motivation and the offensive talent to exploit the Commanders' biggest weakness, their pass defense. Dallas should be able to establish control early, and if Washington does indeed stick with Howell throughout the game, the 17 points I'm predicting above is about the maximum I can see the Commanders putting up.
