Game Spotlight: Conner's Comeback

Thursday

New England vs. Indianapolis

Open: 55.5 O/U, NE -7.5
Live: 50 O/U, NE -10.5

The movement on this line is strange. You would of course make the Patriots the favorite for a home matchup like this, and 7.5 seems reasonable enough. For the over/under to drop five points and then the spread for New England to go up three points is a rather violent adjustment, though, and I struggle to guess what precipitated it. The presumed absence of T.Y. Hilton was always just that – presumed all along – so you'd have to think that was factored into the opening line. The 4.5-point drop might be related to Rob Gronkowski's ankle injury, though tentative reporting expects Gronk to play.

We in any case have a Patriots offense on the upswing, and playing at a home setting where they traditionally experience few complications. An absent or limited Gronk would normally strain that trend, but this Colts defense is so beat up the Patriots obviously don't need him. Emerging star linebacker Darius Leonard and corner Nate Hairston are highly questionable, while corners Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore were declared out. With a defense that battered and the Foxboro effect in play, Tom Brady should roll regardless of Gronkowski's outcome.

It will be interesting to see what role is in store for Julian Edelman as he makes his return from a four-game suspension and ACL tear. Phillip Dorsett has more traction than he did last year and the arrival of Josh Gordon is an additional complication, but Brady showed an extreme fondness of Edelman as a target last year, and it's difficult to imagine Dorsett, Gordon, or Chris Hogan getting in Edelman's way too much if he's 100 percent healthy. I wouldn't expect an Alshon Jeffery-like seasonal debut, but I'd imagine he gets at least six targets regardless of whether Gronk plays. That means I'd have to project him over Dorsett, Gordon, and Hogan this week.

Some of the usage in the event of a Gronk absence might channel toward the backfield, where Sony Michel and James White both enjoyed big games against the Dolphins. Edelman's return might come at the expense of some of White's target share, though, so I wouldn't expect his role to change from the usual. Still, it's a superb matchup for both Michel and White regardless of how Edelman changes the formula.

Andrew Luck's shoulder doesn't seem like much of a concern after completing 40-of-62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns against Houston. The absence of Hilton is very much a problem, though, because Indianapolis has no speed at receiver otherwise. Zach Pascal is a better athlete than Chester Rogers or Ryan Grant, but none of the three can make the defense pay if they bring up the safeties. There will almost certainly be volume to go around, though, so even an inefficient day for Luck could still support a useful box score for at least one of Grant, Rogers, or Pascal. Eric Ebron should probably carry one of the better TE projections of the week given the target upside with Hilton and Jack Doyle out. As you can see from the line movement, though, some plurality of monied individuals are pretty sure the Colts offense is going to lay an egg.

Another beneficiary of Hilton's absence might be running back Nyheim Hines, who caught nine receptions on 11 targets for 63 yards and two touchdowns against Houston. Hines can line up at receiver, which they might need him to do more than ever to make up for the loss of Hilton's speed. Hines' sub-4.4 speed is all that much more useful at receiver given the Hilton absence. Marlon Mack is also out again at running back, giving an easy way for Hines to see the field. Jordan Wilkins will likely remain the lead pure runner at running back, but last week's script shows that he'll likely disappear if the Colts fall behind as fully expected.

Sunday

Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta, 1:00

Open: 55.5 O/U, PIT -3
Live: 57.5 O/U, PIT -3.5

Wherever Atlanta is playing is apparently the Coors Field of football, making it as easy as at any point in recent history to anticipate the chalk. And what compelling reason is there to fade it? The Falcons are at a profound loss on defense with Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and Ricardo Allen on the shelf, and the offense is hitting a new stride with the emergence of Calvin Ridley at receiver, egged on by the previously mentioned issues on defense. The Falcons have means of scoring on a scale similar to Matt Ryan's 2016 season, and their defensive struggles give them reason to keep the pedal to the floor from here.

You'd prefer to see the Falcons playing in a dome, but the Pittsburgh setting should work fine for Ryan as he goes against a Steelers defense allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks. Calvin Ridley has answered all questions about his pro-readiness, and if defenses tilt even slightly in his direction, Julio would scorch them for it. Mohamed Sanu figures to occasionally see his price and matchup align such that he's a fine WR3 in a GPP, but that scenario occurred each of the last two weeks, and hoping for three in a row feels a bit greedy, especially with Sanu playing through a hip tweak. Julio's touchdown-free spree continues to defy all understanding of math and physics, and we've reached a sample size where it's fair to figure that nothing has to give despite otherwise incredible per-target yardage efficiency and 46 targets in four games. I'm going to buy a bunch of stock this week anyway.

The anticipated return of Devonta Freeman (knee) could dock the usage of Ridley, Sanu, and Austin Hooper slightly, though of course Tevin Coleman is the one who will take the biggest hit. The Pittsburgh run defense has been tougher than expected through an inconclusive four weeks, allowing just 286 yards and a touchdown to running backs on 81 carries, while 21 targets toward running backs – fourth fewest among teams without a bye to this point – have yielded two touchdowns but only 12 receptions for 75 yards. I personally am not drawn toward either runner in DFS this week because the prices strike me as a bit high, but there will be touchdowns up for grabs and either player is capable of laying claim to a couple.

The Steelers are circling the drain a little bit, but even if this season goes in the tank at some point, there should be numbers to extract from this contest. Ben Roethlisberger is not likable but he has a long history of success in high-pressure situations, and even in Week 5 this qualifies as high-pressure and urgent setting for the 1-2-1 Steelers. Against an Atlanta defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, Roethlisberger should be in for one of his best games of the year. Dysfunctional organization or not, the matchup is golden and he still has Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster to throw to. They're both excellent plays, and it's hard to argue against the ascending Vance McDonald at tight end, though keep in mind his five-target count in three consecutive games feels a bit maxed out as long as Jesse James is playing 25-plus snaps per game.

No longer propelled by the misplaced angst toward Le'Veon Bell and struggling in recent weeks, the performative public adoration for James Conner has waned lately, but this is a blowup setting for him, too. The Falcons are allowing more than four yards per carry to opposing runners while funneling extreme target volume toward the backfield, resulting in 40 receptions for 304 yards on 53 targets. We might even have people talking about how replaceable Bell is again after this game.

Detroit vs Green Bay, 1:00

Open: 54.5 O/U, GB -1.5
Live: 51 O/U, GB -1

Aaron Rodgers struggled a bit in last week's easy win against the Bills, but now he heads on the road to Detroit, where Matthew Stafford will almost certainly force Rodgers to raise his own level of play. The Lions haven't allowed big fantasy points to quarterbacks through four weeks, allowing the fifth-fewest in the league, but that's primarily a volume issue. Even the Dallas offense threw on the Lions last week, and now they've allowed 792 yards and seven touchdowns to two interceptions on 100 pass attempts. I think Stafford at home raises the volume for Rodgers, so if he's physically sound this should be a good matchup for him.

The question of who Rodgers will be throwing to is less obvious, and a matter of substantial concern. Davante Adams (calf) got hurt Wednesday and missed Thursday's practice. Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Geronimo Allison (concussion) also appear in danger of missing this game, as both sat out Thursday's practice as well. If all three wideouts miss the game then the Packers would seemingly need to turn to all three of their rookie receivers. The theoretical pecking order is Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who replaced Cobb in the slot last week, then J'Mon Moore, then Equanimeous St. Brown. It's not clear whether MVS would play more outside if Adams and Allison sit, because Moore and St. Brown more conventionally project in the slot than MVS does. Rather than chasing the Green Bay rookie wideouts it might be better to look toward Jimmy Graham when theorizing beneficiaries of the wideout injuries. The fact that the Lions are allowing 7.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends doesn't jump off the page, but 15 catches for 168 yards and two touchdowns on 21 targets indicates a weakness in the defense all the same.

Jamaal Williams' time should be just about up, but no technology present or future can see into a skull as dense as Mike McCarthy's. What's true or not isn't pertinent to his process, which is just a survey of various gut impulses that may or may not incidentally bear some resemblance to reasonable behavior. Aaron Jones is a firecracker for an offense that could really use one, and he figures to be a popular GPP play, with good reason, against a Lions defense that's been butchered by running backs to this point. The Lions have conceded 624 rushing yards to running backs, outpacing the second-highest league allowance (Arizona) by 124 yards. The coverage out of the backfield hasn't been better, as 23 targets channeled into 18 receptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns to opposing running backs. While Jones is the obvious GPP consideration, I don't think you can argue against Ty Montgomery for the same consideration, particularly given the wide receiver injuries. Montgomery was a very good receiver at Stanford and can probably pick up some of the passing game slack out wide, not to mention out of the backfield.

The over/under on this game is falling, but I have to figure that's due to concern over the myriad Packers injuries rather than anything on Stafford's side. The Mike Pettine defense confused Josh Allen on Sunday, but Stafford won't get blindsided by disguised coverages, and the Packers defense otherwise doesn't have the personnel to cover Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones. Kevin King is expected to return at corner for Green Bay, and he figures to match up best with Golladay. Talented rookie corner Jaire Alexander figures to face Golden Tate, a matchup where I think you have to defer to the veteran. Marvin Jones might see the most favorable coverage of the three, but the home Stafford factor projects the advantage on the side of all three Lions receivers, I think. It's unlikely that Stafford has a big enough game to support all three, but I think the GPP logic is strong with all three all the same. I can see the argument for Tate in cash since his function is rarely cannibalized by Golladay or Jones. Stafford is in any case rarely denied at home.

Kerryon Johnson continues to build momentum in the Detroit backfield, while the Lions continue to stand by LeGarrette Blount. I think people are probably overrating Johnson a bit, but he's clearly better than Blount right now, and that Blount is dealing with an illness might help provide a pretext for giving Johnson a bigger share of the backfield in this matchup. If not for the volume concern this would be a golden setup for Johnson against a Packers defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry to running backs so far. The potential absence of T.J. Lang is a slight concern, but the Lions offensive line has looked great and the Packers recently lost arguable top lineman Muhammad Wilkerson to IR. Theo Riddick poses his standard threat of sneaking in double-digit PPR output, but you may as well consult a series of coin flips when figuring his odds of doing so.

Chargers vs. Oakland, 4:05

Open: 51 O/U, LAC -6
Live: 52.5 O/U, LAC -5

Melvin Gordon is in the midst of an enormous season and in this setting he gets another unambiguous green light against a Raiders defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The usage void created by Hunter Henry's injury has mostly gone toward the backfield with Gordon and Austin Ekeler rather than anyone at receiver or tight end, and the success of those two in that capacity makes it difficult to imagine the Chargers turning away from that approach. Ekeler is a very good player in his own right and I don't think his role is an illusion, so I can't argue against him as a GPP pick.

Anticipating the Chargers receivers from week to week hasn't been easy, especially since Keenan Allen picked up a knee tweak that limits his effectiveness. Mike Williams has made a number of big plays, but his role has fluctuated between modest and minimal, with last week's three targets giving him only 18 in four games. Tyrell Williams, meanwhile, has been quiet for the most part, but with 16 targets he's pretty much on the same plane as Mike. It's not clear whether Travis Benjamin (foot) might return this week, but if he did it would present a further complication for the Williams duo. Antonio Gates looks more like Arkansas Jason Peters these days, but he showed last week he still has something left, and the Raiders have allowed 16 catches for 206 yards and a touchdown on 23 targets to tight ends. There should be touchdowns scored by the Chargers offense, and Gates is always a threat to jam his hands into that cookie jar. Philip Rivers of course carries one of the finer quarterback projections of the week against a Raiders defense allowing 7.9 yards per pass despite facing passing games that were troubled to various extents with Denver, Miami, and Cleveland in the last three weeks.

Marshawn Lynch probably won't be a trendy DFS pick this year given how rare it will be for the Raiders to be favored in a game, but he's producing at the moment and gets a defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry to running backs. The Raiders are feeding him, so I think he's a worthwhile GPP play at the least.

The Chargers pass defense was only middling against the 49ers last week, conceding 298 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Beathard. Carr's historical splits with the Chargers are pretty much in line with his averages otherwise, with 1,891 yards (7.1 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in eight games. This was done with Amari Cooper producing 452 yards and three touchdowns on 36 targets in six games. As with Carr, those numbers are almost exactly within his career averages. As with any wide receiver not named Antonio Brown, Cooper is liable to disappear in any given week, but the critical tone surrounding Cooper the last year or so is completely over the top. He's one of the best receivers in the league and he's going to get better yet. The fluctuations that occur between now and then are variance. It's frustrating, but there's nothing to be done and probably no one to blame.

Jordy Nelson had two bad games to start his Oakland career, but he's been a hit for his fantasy owners in his last two. It might not be easy for Cooper and Nelson to have big games the same week, especially with Jared Cook seeing so many targets, but in terms of their own play and the matchup there's nothing especially discouraging for the wideouts. Cook, meanwhile, faces a Chargers defense that just gave up a huge game to George Kittle, but before Kittle hanged 125 yards and a touchdown on them the Chargers conceded only 87 yards to tight ends in the prior three games. Cook is certainly in play, especially in tournaments, due to his target volume alone. I might stay away this week myself, because of the matchup and because Cook has been so exceedingly goofy and inconsistent his entire career. Maybe he's turned a corner, though.