This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Cincinnati Bengals 
at Cleveland Browns 
Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for NFL Week 1
The Cincinnati Bengals open a 2023 season of high expectations within the Buckeye State against the rival Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Bengals nearly made a second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl in February after a 12-4 regular season, falling just short with a 23-20 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Conference Championship Game.
The Browns limped to a 7-10 regular season during a transitional 2022 season of sorts, one that saw the changing of the guard at quarterback to Deshaun Watson, but not only from Week 13 onward after he completed his season-opening suspension.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Betting Odds for NFL Week 1
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Bengals -125 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Browns +110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Point spread: Bengals -1.5 (PointsBet Sportsbook)/ Browns +2 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Totals: Over 47.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Under 47.5 points (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The spread for this game has seen a fair amount of movement, originally opening with the Browns as 2.5-point underdogs but then temporarily flipping all the way to Browns -1 after Joe Burrow's training camp calf strain. The number eventually flipped back the other way after it became apparent Burrow had a good chance of being available for this game and has mostly bounced between Bengals -2 and -1.5 since then.
The projected total has had much more stability, opening at 47 points and mostly toggling between that figure and a brief high of 48.5 since then, with Burrow's status not having as big of an impact in either direction.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Betting Picks This Week
The biggest question hanging over the Bengals all summer has apparently been answered with very encouraging results. Joe Burrow's late-July calf strain appears to be officially behind him, with the star signal-caller able to practice fully Wednesday in advance of this season-opening clash.
Burrow then signed a massive extension Thursday that includes a record $219 million guaranteed, so he'll have no shortage of motivation coming into this game. However, accompanying that healthy dose of incentive is likely to be a robust side of rust, considering Burrow missed all of the preseason.
Although he's naturally a more seasoned player at this point, it bears mentioning that a year ago, Burrow struggled mightily against the Steelers defense in Week 1 after having missed some training camp time due to an emergency appendectomy. He actually had much more of a chance to get his feet under him ahead of that contest than he's had for this one – in the case of last summer, Burrow was back to 7-on-7 drills by mid-August – and he still threw four interceptions.
The Browns' defense is formidable enough to cause him plenty of trouble, and they did hold Burrow to under 240 yards in both meetings last season while picking him off once apiece in those games. Cleveland also shored up its secondary this offseason with the signing of Super Bowl champ Juan Thornhill to play free safety, although he's looking questionable to play Sunday due to a calf injury.
Denzel Ward also must clear concussion protocol for Cleveland in order to suit up, so it's possible Kevin Stefanski's club is missing two key players. However, the Browns do have veteran Rodney McLeod as a literal safety net in case Thornhill can't go. Moreover, Cleveland also boasts a highly talented front seven that added Za'Darius Smith this offseason and that could therefore both cover up for any deficiencies in the secondary and give a potentially out-of-sorts Burrow fits with its pass rush.
Given the fact Watson should also be a lot smoother out of the gate following a normal offseason and has a talented pass-catching crew that includes offseason add Elijah Moore, I like the chances of the Browns keeping any home loss to a field goal or less and Watson to have at least a moderately successful day.
Bengals at Browns Best Bets: Same-Game Parlay: Browns +3.5 (alternate spread) and Deshaun Watson 200+ Passing Yards (+110 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Prediction
Bengals 24, Browns 21
As just outlined, I envision a close game between the division rivals, with the Dawg Pound crowd having its fair share of impact on the Bengals' offense and the potentially rusty Burrow. I can see Cincy still emerging with a narrow, very hard-fought victory given its slightly superior offensive talent, but it should be a game that comes down to the final possession.
