This article is part of our Game Spotlight series.
Thursday
San Francisco vs. Oakland
Open: 47 O/U, SF -3.5
Live: 45.5 O/U, SF -2.5
This one might get weird. These two teams were already dysfunctional by any standard, and then the Raiders had their two best skill position players subtracted from the offense, while the 49ers are looking at the real possibility of starting their third-string quarterback with C.J. Beathard questionable due to a wrist injury. Beathard sat out Monday and Tuesday practices before showing as a limited participant Wednesday, which was merely a walk-through practice.
If not for the injury, Beathard's performances to this point might have merited a benching on their own. The 49ers put up only 15 points against Arizona on Sunday, and Beathard coughed up 10 turnovers in the prior four starts. With the wrist an issue now, it'd be an odd decision for the 49ers to start Beathard on a short week instead of third-string quarterback Nick Mullens. Mullens went undrafted out of Southern Mississippi in 2017, and as a prospect he's quite bad by most considerations. Small at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds and with a weak arm, Mullens posted good volume in college, where he was coached by Todd Monken until 2016, but he threw far too many interceptions. While he has the requisite downfield aggressiveness to hit open receivers, it's doubtful that Mullens will succeed in the event that he tries to throw through tight windows. He was a downfield-oriented spread quarterback in college, but in the NFL his passes would resemble a game of Duck Hunt if he doesn't re-brand as a dink-and-dunk quarterback. Still, in the event that he starts, his low salary in a Kyle Shanahan offense against a sinking Raiders organization makes him a prime target in single-game slates. Given Beathard's wrist compounding his previous issues, if he's named starter I'd give him a lesser projection than I would Mullens.
I would therefore have to lessen the projections for Marquise Goodwin and George Kittle if Beathard is starting. Not much, but a bit. The per-target efficiency would suffer, I think, and I think more of the offense might go to the ground than if Mullens were quarterback, too. As long as Goodwin and Kittle have access to targets, though, they should be able to do damage in a matchup far more favorable than last week's against a Cardinals defense that gives up tons of volume but generally doesn't break. The Raiders, by contrast, are always up for a total meltdown. They're allowing 8.6 yards per pass at a completion rate of 63.9, and their touchdown percentage of 7.5 is tied with Detroit and Tampa Bay for worst in the league. Their sack rate is worst in the league, too.
Aside from Goodwin and Kittle, the most popular San Francisco receiver might be Kendrick Bourne, who seemingly jumped ahead of Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis in the rotation last week. Bourne is quick but really lacks speed, so he seems like a poor fit at outside receiver, where he played last week. Bourne played 54 snaps against Arizona, securing seven of 10 targets for 71 yards, but that was mostly because Pierre Garcon (knee/shoulder) did not play. It's not clear whether Garcon will play Thursday, but if he does suit up it might knock Bourne's snap count by about 30. It's exceedingly difficult to get a read on Garcon, who's in the midst of decline but might nonetheless have gone through a stretch with improbably bad injury luck, both in reference to himself and Jimmy Garoppolo. If Garcon is in, I think he makes tons of sense in single-game DFS contests due to the probability of relatively low ownership. Bourne in any case creeps me out a bit – he's a worthwhile buy on this slate, but he probably isn't good, and players who aren't good are liable to get their usage revoked with no notice, while other times they often do nothing with whatever usage they stumble into. Bourne not only has Garcon to worry about, but also Pettis as the rookie eases back in from a knee injury that cost him three weeks. While their stock is generally pointed downward, I think I'm more interested in Pettis and Taylor in single-game slates, because something just seems off to me about chasing stats with a prospect as underwhelming as Bourne.
Almost as momentous as the San Francisco quarterback situation is the deal with the 49ers backfield, where Matt Breida is once again questionable after hobbling through a wasted week for the second game in a row. Breida at least finished the game against Arizona last week, though 42 yards on 16 carries is a big part of how the 49ers lost. Raheem Mostert saw only two carries, but that he's questionable for Thursday with an ankle injury might explain why he didn't play against Arizona. With Breida and Mostert both banged up, it makes a lot of sense to buy into Alfred Morris on single-game slates. Kyle Juszczyk has faded with just seven targets in the three games since his seven-target game in Week 5, but the injuries to Breida and Mostert mean he could jump back into the scene, especially if the 49ers fall behind.
In the Raiders backfield it looks like Doug Martin really will play the role previously held by Marshawn Lynch, while the off-the-bench tasks of Jalen Richard will mostly stay the same as well. On the other hand, Martin did lose a fumble against the Colts, and it's anyone's guess whether it's that fact or Martin's 72 yards on 13 carries that matter more to Jon Gruden. If Breida and Mostert are both active then Martin would in any case probably project for the highest carry count in this game, and if you're betting on an Oakland victory you'd have to really like Martin for single-game slates, I think. But as last week showed, Martin could disappear from the game plan if Oakland falls behind, so you might want to consider Richard instead if you're going heavy on the San Francisco offense. Other than a zero-target aberration against Denver in Week 2, Richard has seen 7.5 targets per game. The 49ers normally invite volume with their tempo, so the upside scenario for Martin or Richard could be significant depending on whether Oakland leads or falls behind. That the spread and over/under are falling does not provide us any clarity on where that question might be headed.
As is usually the case, there are even fewer clues as to the nature of Martavis Bryant's situation, but it generally looks bad. He played only seven snaps against the Colts, while Brandon LaFell played 46. With Jordy Nelson at the other outside position and Seth Roberts in the slot, it seems like Bryant is safely declared the No. 4 receiver in Oakland. Gruden spent a third-round pick on that. Remember that detail the next time someone points out how many draft picks the Raiders got for Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. Anyway, I think you have to give descending projections in the order of Nelson, Roberts, and LaFell. Roberts should stay involved as Carr's slot target, while Nelson should otherwise outrun LaFell over the long haul despite a four-target, 14-yard dud last week.
Jared Cook is pretty clearly the most reliable Oakland route runner, which is an incredible series of words to witness. Cook is one of the league's most memorably inconsistent if not underachieving players of the past decade, so his distinction as the chaperone of this group implies a wide range of outcomes indeed. But with Cooper gone and Derek Carr ever the checkdown quarterback, Cook is an exceedingly tough fade. He's on pace for over 1,000 yards this year, and he owns more than a fifth of Oakland's air yardage.
I would make it a priority to include both quarterbacks in this slate, especially if Mullens is named starter. I'll be betting against three straight bad games for Jordy while stacking tight ends and otherwise making the rest of my decisions pending the statuses of Breida, Mostert, and Garcon. If Garcon is out, I'll prefer Pettis over Bourne. If Breida or Mostert are out, I'll prefer Juszczyk over Morris. With this collection of injuries, questionable talent, and dubious defenses, this might be a spot to bet on chaos rather than chasing recent trends. Conditions are probably especially volatile in a setting like this. You also might want to consider the kickers more than usual. It's easy to imagine these teams struggling to score even if they're moving the ball. I'm banking on an Oakland win, because San Francisco is just destroyed with injuries and Carr is much better than whatever quarterback the 49ers summon.
