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Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
For the fourth time in the last five postseasons, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will face off in a high-stakes January matchup. For only the second time, that clash will come in the AFC Championship Game. Allen and the Bills seek their first win over that span as they also aim to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since losing a fourth straight NFL title game all the way back in January 1994.
Read on as we break down odds and best bets for Sunday's AFC Championship Game showdown.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -125 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Bills +110 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Point spread: Chiefs -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)/ Bills +2 (BetRivers Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 48.5 points (BetMGM Sportsbook)/ Over 48.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The spread for this game is unsurprisingly very narrow, but it's had an interesting life cycle. The number opened at Chiefs -1.5 at most sportsbooks, and the public bet that number up to -2.5 rather quickly. However, sentiment has swung back to Buffalo over the course of the week, and the number has reverted to 1.5 entering the weekend.
The total has had more overall movement but has still remained with a one-point range. It was at 48.5 to open the week, then dipped to 47.5 early in the week. It has subsequently bounced between the latter and the former figure and entered the weekend at 48.5 at many sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Picks
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The Bills have lost the aforementioned three playoff meetings against the Chiefs during the Allen-Mahomes eras by a combined 23 points, with the last two by nine total points overall. Those numbers stand in stark contrast to Allen's unblemished record against Mahomes' Chiefs over the last four regular-season meetings, a sample in which Buffalo has recorded victories of 18, four, three and nine points.
Considering both teams enter a playoff showdown very evenly matched in essentially every aspect, the chance of some regression finally breaking Buffalo's way is certainly there. In this year's 30-21 victory over Kansas City in Week 11 at Highmark Stadium, the Bills picked off and sacked Mahomes twice apiece and limited him to 196 passing yards. That helped lead to Travis Kelce recording only two receptions for eight yards on four targets. He has since picked up his game as he always does in the playoffs.
The four consecutive wins over the Chiefs are nothing to dismiss and clearly underscore the fact there's a blueprint to go off for Sean McDermott and his staff. Moreover, three of those victories have come at Arrowhead, so even the venue isn't a reason to knock Buffalo's prospects down too far. It therefore ultimately comes down to the matchups on the field. The Bills walk into this latest battle with their arch-rival armed with a red-hot Allen and RB James Cook, who's backed up by a dangerous duo of Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, that's capable of hurting teams through the air as much as on the ground.
Cook averaged just 2.2 yards per carry but scored two touchdowns in the regular-season meeting with KC, while Allen led the way with 55 rushing yards and a touchdown himself. The quarterback's mobility could well be an X-factor in this matchup, especially since the MVP candidate undoubtedly feels the pressure of putting as much as necessary on his shoulders to finally get his team over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Plus, the Chiefs allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (434) during the regular season and did so at 4.9 yards per rush attempt.
The Bills' defense will miss Taylor Rapp due to a hip injury. That's an area of concern due to Xavier Worthy's deep speed and Kelce's ability to find open spots in the middle of the field and then wreak havoc after the catch. Therefore, this game could naturally still break KC's way yet again, but I like the prospects of an extremely close game and will tease the spread up past a field goal and bank on a solid passing day from Allen while still getting plus odds.
Additionally, the prospect of Allen and Mahomes exceeding 15 passing yards in each quarter at a very reasonable price is also worth considering as a secondary bet.
- SGP: Bills Alt. Spread +3.5 and Josh Allen 200+ passing yards (+111 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes To Each Record 15+ Passing Yards in Each Quarter (-120 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bills @ Chiefs Prediction
Bills 25, Chiefs 23
As already explained, this game is a true toss-up given the almost dead even talent on either side. That naturally makes it a difficult game to prognosticate, but the safest bet is an extremely close battle that likely hinges on a couple of plays. While far from the most scientific assessment, I'm in the camp of the ball finally bouncing a Chiefs' opponent's way, especially when that opponent is a Bills team that has already amply demonstrated the ability to get the better of Mahomes-led Kansas City squads in the regular season.
