Beating the Book: Rams Win in Detroit, Cowboys Hold Serve at Home + Full Super Wild Card Weekend ATS Picks

Welcome to the Super Wild Card Weekend edition of Beating the Book!

Fittingly, in a chaotic Week 18 that featured several "we care a lot" and "we don't care at all" teams, we managed one of our better ATS weeks of the season. Frankly, it makes sense. We've always thrived in mayhem and will continue to do so.

The strong finish pushed our season-long record up to 133-131-8 ATS – not exactly setting the world on fire, but we'll take it. While the regular season may be over, we'll continue to pick each game against the spread through the Super Bowl, so we're far from finished.

Taking a look at the Super Wild Card Weekend board, we're presented with a six-game slate that features only two teams favored by at least a touchdown: Buffalo (-10.0 vs. Pittsburgh) and Dallas (-7.5 vs. Green Bay). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are giving 4.5 points to the visiting Dolphins, while the Lions are 3.0-point home favorites for the Rams.

Two teams enter the weekend as home dogs, as the Bucs are getting 3.0 points from Philly, and the Texans are getting 2.5 from Cleveland.

You can find my thoughts on those games, as well as the entire Super Wild Card Weekend slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 11-5 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet won (LV -2.5)

On the season: 133-131-8 ATS, 174-98 SU; 12-6 best bet

Best calls of Week 18:

• Last week, the Bucs reminded us that they are, in fact, an NFC South team and therefore cannot be trusted, but it's difficult to envision them getting tripped up in this spot – even if these teams played a three-point game back in Week 13. Cautiously, we'll take the Bucs to win and cover on the road.
• Pierce clearly has the locker room's attention and may need to win this game to solidify himself as the favorite to take over as the full-time head coach in 2024. I don't love playing the motivational trope game, but I expect the Raiders to go all-out in hopes of retaining Pierce next season.

Worst calls of Week 18:

• I like Jacksonville to win this game outright regardless of whether it's Lawrence or Beathard. If Lawrence wins, they cover. If it's Beathard, the Titans can keep it close.
• As much as I want to take Green Bay at home, the Packers' defense has shown us all year that it's one of the least-trustworthy units in the NFL. Give me the Bears to exploit that and pull out a narrow, hard-fought victory. 

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Saturday Games

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (+2.5)

We begin in Houston for what feels like a dream matchup for the NFL postseason schedule-makers. Browns-Texans is about as "early game on Saturday" as it gets. This is a familiar spot for the Texans, in particular, who've spent plenty of time in this slot during the Watson/Hoyer/Schaub days.

But those days are firmly in the rear-view, as C.J. Stroud will make his first of what will likely be many postseason starts. No matter what happens, this will go down as a wildly successful season for Houston, which seemingly entered 2023 in the early stages of a rebuild.

Instead, the Texans' offense has been worlds better than expected, thanks in large part to Stroud putting together one of the best rookie QB seasons in recent memory. Of course, Stroud will once again be without fellow-star-rookie Tank Dell, but the connection with Nico Collins has been one of the best in the NFL. As of publication, it's unclear if No. 2 receiver Noah Brown, who did not practice Wednesday, will be available.

On the Cleveland side, the Browns should be well-rested after sitting most of their regulars last week against the Cincinnati. The Browns are on their fourth quarterback of the season but have found new life under Joe Flacco, who's taken Amari Cooper to another level and resurrected David Njoku from years of fantasy disappointments.

The Browns have been banged up all season, but the pseudo week off should go a long way toward ensuring the likes of Cooper, Myles Garrett, Greg Newsome and Juan Thornhill are as close to full strength as possible.

It'll be a popular pick this week, but I lean toward the Browns to limit Stroud, contain an improved Houston running game and win what will likely be a close game on the road. For as great as Flacco has played, he's been turnover-prone and that's what could allow Houston to hang around – even if the Texans struggle to consistently move the ball on the Cleveland defense. Nevertheless, Flacco moves to 12-4 ATS in the postseason with a win.

The pick: Browns 24 – Texans 21

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

By virtue of losing to Buffalo on Sunday night, the Dolphins lost their grip on the AFC East and will now head to Kansas City for what feels like a worst-case-scenario weather game for the Dolphins. 

On the bright side, the Dolphins are catching the Chiefs at the right time, as far as "Kansas City at Arrowhead in the playoffs" goes. KC's offensive struggles are well-known by now, and while the Chiefs did win three of their last four regular-season games, it certainly doesn't feel as though anything has been solved. Beating Patrick Mahomes at home in the playoffs will always be a tall task, but this version of the Chiefs is particularly vulnerable.

The question is weather Miami can handle the elements and take advantage of the Chiefs' lack of explosiveness. A big part of the equation for the Dolphins is health. They've already lost both of their starting defensive ends for the season, while all four of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane have been limited throughout the week. The general expectation is that Miami will have its playmakers, but it's very possible they won't be at 100 percent.

All season, the Chiefs have shown us that they're not the dominant team of the past. And yet, I can't pick against them in this spot. Give me the Chiefs to win the game straight up, but I do like Miami to keep it close and cover in what should be a relatively low-scoring game – not something I thought we'd be saying about a Dolphins-Chiefs showdown.

The pick: Chiefs 21 – Dolphins 17

Sunday Games

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-10.0)

On to the Sunday slate, which kicks off with our biggest spread of the week. On the one hand, it doesn't feel like Buffalo should be a 10.0-point favorite over any playoff team right now. On the other… it's Mason Rudolph.

To Rudolph's credit, he's played well over the last few weeks – so much so that the Steelers seemingly didn't give much thought to going back to Kenny Pickett, who returned to active duty last week. Two of the Steelers' three best offensive performances this season have come under Rudolph, though we do have to keep in mind that his three starts have come against the Jake Browning Bengals, Baltimore's backups and a Seahawks defense that hands out free yards to anyone who wants them.

Meanwhile, Buffalo enters the playoffs on a five-game winning streak, including impressive victories over Kansas City, Dallas and Maimi. While I'm still not convinced the Bills are "back" – whatever that means – it's hard to see them faltering in this spot at home against a flawed team like Pittsburgh. The Steelers will also be without their best player in T.J. Watt.

We'll roll with the Bills to grind out another up-and-down win at home to set up another showdown with Kansas City in the Divisional Round.

The pick: Bills 24 – Steelers 13

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Hats off to Jordan Love and the Packers for finishing the season on a three-game winning streak after back-to-back what the hell was that? games against the Giants and Bucs in Weeks 14 and 15. The Packers enter the playoffs having won six of their last eight, capped off by a more-dominant-than-the-final-score-indicates win over Chicago this past Sunday.

Green Bay racked up 432 yards of offense on a good Bears defense one week after putting 470 yards on the Vikings. The return of Aaron Jones has provided a massive boost, but the emergence of the Packers' young pass-catchers, led by Jayden Reed, has been arguably the biggest factor.

While the Packers' defense stepped up in a huge spot last week, holding Chicago to just 192 total yards and nine points, this weekend will provide a much, much stiffer test. After all, this is still the same Packers defense that allowed 68 combined points to the Bucs and Panthers within the last month.

Perhaps Joe Barry has found a miracle fix over the last two weeks, but we'll find out for sure on Sunday, as the Cowboys enter the playoffs averaging 37.4 points per game at home. Dallas has scored at least 30 in all but one home game while hanging 40-plus points on Seattle, Washington, New York and the Rams. 

Of course, there's always the chance the Cowboys are ripe for a playoff implosion. It's happened before, and the Packers' offense is dangerous enough to capitalize should Dak Prescott have an off day. But at the end of the day, the Cowboys' margin for error should be relatively large against a defense that I still don't trust. Believe me, as I sit here in Milwaukee typing this, I would love to be wrong, but I don't see Dallas getting tripped up right out of the gate.

If there's a silver lining for Green Bay (other than this game perhaps sealing Barry's fate), it's that they're playing with house money in a playoff game for the first time in… a very long time. This season has already been a smashing success for the NFL's youngest team. They clearly have their quarterback of the future to go with a stable of young weapons who should only improve over the next several years.

The pick: Cowboys 33 – Packers 24

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.0)

Here we go. This is the game I'm most looking forward to on Super Wild Card Weekend. Jared Goff vs. his old team. Matthew Stafford vs. his old team. Dan Campbell vs. Sean McVay. I'm fired up.

The Lions giving 3.0 points at home makes sense, but I see these as two extremely evenly matched teams who can burn you through the air and on the ground. Kyren Williams has been one of the stories of the season for LA, while Detroit may have the best two-headed-monster in the NFL in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Both teams have been great against the spread this season. Detroit comes in at an NFL-best 12-5 ATS, while the Rams aren't far behind at 10-6-1. LA has covered six of its last seven – the lone blemish coming in a one-point win over the Giants (+6.0) in Week 17.

On the Detroit side, we have to mention the Sam LaPorta injury – the unfortunate downside that comes with playing starters in Week 18. As of publication, LaPorta is yet to practice this week, but the Lions are maintaining optimism that he could be out there Sunday night.

It goes without saying that LaPorta would be a massive loss for Detroit, especially with Kalif Raymond unlikely to be available. That would leave Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds as his top targets, though Gibbs provides Detroit with a supercharged boost as a pass-catcher.

I'll be candid: Even without the LaPorta injury, I really like the Rams' side. LA is a Tylan Wallace overtime punt return away from entering the playoffs on an eight-game heater. During that stretch, they've rushed for at least 100 yards seven times and piled up at least 390 total yards six times. The Kupp-Nacua combo is, at the very least, in the conversation as the best WR duo in the league, and if the Lions sell out to stop the pass, Williams can gash them on the ground.

With that said, Detroit is very much capable of scoring with the Rams – I'd be surprised if this game doesn't go over 51.5 – and LA's defense doesn't rate much better than Detroit's. But in what projects as a close, back-and-forth game, I'm siding with Stafford and McVay to go into Detroit and out-score the Lions, who've been particularly vulnerable against the pass over the second half of the season.

The pick: Rams 34 – Lions 31

Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0)

Super Wild Card Weekend concludes with perhaps the most confounding game on the slate. The Eagles, losers of five of their last six, desperately needed a get-right victory last week against the Giants. Instead, they fell behind 24-0 by halftime and now enter the playoffs in a full-on tailspin.

Heading into the matchup against Tampa Bay, A.J. Brown is battling a knee injury, DeVonta Smith is banged up and Jalen Hurts will be playing through a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. The general belief is that all three will play, but it's fair to question just how effective that trio will be.

On the other side, the Bucs' number was called as part of the annual randomization process to determine the winner of the NFC South. While the Bucs put together an impressive stretch in December, they ended the season with a 10-point loss to the Saints and an ugly, 9-0 win over Carolina to seal the division. Hardly inspiring. The Eagles are plenty vulnerable, but do we trust Tampa Bay to be the team to take advantage?

My answer is: No. We do not. I would pick the Eagles to lose to any other team in the NFC playoffs right now – and maybe the AFC, with the exception of the Steelers. Philly has plenty of issues, and if Baker Mayfield is healthy the Bucs should be able to throw on the Eagles' defense, but I think they can slide by the Bucs and confront those problems in the Divisional Round against Dallas or San Francisco. 

Good note via ESPN, by the way:

The Eagles are the sixth team in the Super Bowl era to enter the postseason on at least a six-game ATS losing streak. Each of the previous five won their first playoff game that season.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Buccaneers 20