This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 2-2, last week, winning with the Seahawks and Titans, but losing badly with the Saints (best bet) and barely with the Bills.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs, though that line keeps climbing.
For the podcast version of the article click here.
SATURDAY GAMES
Vikings +7 at 49ers
This is exactly where I have the line. The Vikings looked great in New Orleans, particularly Kirk Cousins and a healthy Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. Their defense also played exceptionally well against what turned out to be a one-dimensional Saints attack. But the Niners offer a different look from the unguardable George Kittle to a dynamic running game with three very speedy backs. I also think the 49ers are likely to get more pressure on Cousins than the Saints did last week. This is a close call, but when in doubt, give me the rested one seed in the divisional round.
49ers 27 - 19
Titans +9.5 at Ravens
The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, but I like the Titans' build for the playoffs. Derrick Henry can run on anyone, and Ryan Tannehill is mobile enough to make plays when needed. Moreover, while the Ravens secondary has been strong since acquiring Marcus Peters and getting Jimmy Smith back, it's not at the level of New England's. The downside here is the Ravens offense is good enough to put this one out of reach, and the Titans pass defense is average at best.
I went 2-2, last week, winning with the Seahawks and Titans, but losing badly with the Saints (best bet) and barely with the Bills.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs, though that line keeps climbing.
For the podcast version of the article click here.
SATURDAY GAMES
Vikings +7 at 49ers
This is exactly where I have the line. The Vikings looked great in New Orleans, particularly Kirk Cousins and a healthy Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. Their defense also played exceptionally well against what turned out to be a one-dimensional Saints attack. But the Niners offer a different look from the unguardable George Kittle to a dynamic running game with three very speedy backs. I also think the 49ers are likely to get more pressure on Cousins than the Saints did last week. This is a close call, but when in doubt, give me the rested one seed in the divisional round.
49ers 27 - 19
Titans +9.5 at Ravens
The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, but I like the Titans' build for the playoffs. Derrick Henry can run on anyone, and Ryan Tannehill is mobile enough to make plays when needed. Moreover, while the Ravens secondary has been strong since acquiring Marcus Peters and getting Jimmy Smith back, it's not at the level of New England's. The downside here is the Ravens offense is good enough to put this one out of reach, and the Titans pass defense is average at best. Still, I expect Tennessee to score points, and barring some defensive or special teams touchdowns against them, keep this one in reach. Take the points.
Ravens 31 - 23
SUNDAY GAMES
Texans +9.5 at Chiefs
The Chiefs are my best bet for a few reasons. Andy Reid is typically good off the bye week, the Texans just played five hard-fought and emotional quarters against the Bills and Kansas City is the better team on both sides of the ball and on special teams. Deshaun Watson gives the Texans a puncher's chance, but he takes a ton of sacks, and I'd expect the Chiefs pass rush to be in his face. Lay the wood.
Chiefs 33 - 17
Seahawks +4 at Packers
The Seahawks did not look good in Philadelphia, letting the Josh McCown-led Eagles hang around for way too long, calling far too many run plays on early downs and giving up yardage on screens and misdirection plays against a crippled offense. But the Packers aren't especially strong on either side of the ball, lack outside playmakers and haven't pulled away from too many teams this year. Bottom line, unless it's 20 below, I expect Russell Wilson to make enough plays to keep this one close. Take the points.
Seahawks 24 - 23
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Last week, I went 2-2 in the Wild Card round, lost my best bet (the Saints). I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.
