This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week I bounced back somewhat to go 8-7 (it was looking quite a bit better before the Sunday and Monday night games.) I also went 1-1 on best bets bringing that record to 10-10-1.
I found this to be a tough slate with nothing jumping out at me as a real best bet. If I arrive at one later in the week, I'll add it in the comments. I'll say the easiest picks for me were the Cardinals, Ravens and Dolphins, but I'm not making those official yet, if at all.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers +7.5 at Broncos
This is probably the right line, and I hate going against the Broncos at home, but San Diego knows them well and plays them tough. I think the Chargers hang around here.
Broncos 30 - 24
LONDON GAME
Lions -4 vs. Falcons
I despise the Lions, and I'm sure they'll finally lay an egg now that I'm backing them, but unless the Falcons get their offensive line problems fixed in a hurry (while making a trip to London), this is a bad matchup for them. Back Detroit.
Lions 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Vikings +3 at Buccaneers
Both teams are doormats, but overall I think the Vikings have shown a little more spark than the Bucs. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 24 - 23
Bears +6 at Patriots
For God knows what reason I picked the Pats in the TYT segment (embedded clip coming soon), so I'll stick with it. The Patriots are typically
Last week I bounced back somewhat to go 8-7 (it was looking quite a bit better before the Sunday and Monday night games.) I also went 1-1 on best bets bringing that record to 10-10-1.
I found this to be a tough slate with nothing jumping out at me as a real best bet. If I arrive at one later in the week, I'll add it in the comments. I'll say the easiest picks for me were the Cardinals, Ravens and Dolphins, but I'm not making those official yet, if at all.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chargers +7.5 at Broncos
This is probably the right line, and I hate going against the Broncos at home, but San Diego knows them well and plays them tough. I think the Chargers hang around here.
Broncos 30 - 24
LONDON GAME
Lions -4 vs. Falcons
I despise the Lions, and I'm sure they'll finally lay an egg now that I'm backing them, but unless the Falcons get their offensive line problems fixed in a hurry (while making a trip to London), this is a bad matchup for them. Back Detroit.
Lions 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Vikings +3 at Buccaneers
Both teams are doormats, but overall I think the Vikings have shown a little more spark than the Bucs. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 24 - 23
Bears +6 at Patriots
For God knows what reason I picked the Pats in the TYT segment (embedded clip coming soon), so I'll stick with it. The Patriots are typically better at home, and I'll discount the close game against the Jets on Thursday because of the rivalry.
Patriots 30 - 21
Rams +7 at Chiefs
Both teams are coming off big wins, but I like the Chiefs as a scrappy underdog more than a touchdown favorite. Take the Rams and the points.
Chiefs 24 - 20
Seahawks -5 at Panthers
The Seahawks might bounce back against a Panthers team that's been so Jekyll and Hyde this year, but Seattle's not as good on the road, and five is a big number if Carolina shows up. Back the Panthers.
Seahawks 23 - 20
Bills +3 at Jets
The Bills are the better team, but Geno Smith played better last week and usually performs better at home. Percy Harvin probably won't be a major factor, but that the team acquired him is a sign it isn't throwing in the towel. Back the Jets.
Jets 23 - 19
Dolphins -6 at Jaguars
I don't typically like road favorites, but it's a good time to lay the wood after the Jaguars first win in a game where the visitor doesn't have to travel much. Back the Dolphins.
Dolphins 27 - 17
Texans -2 at Titans
The Titans have no purpose for existing other than to damage my ATS record. Whatever side I pick here, you should do the opposite. I'll take the Texans who I think are the better team and should win.
Texans 23 - 20
Ravens +1.5 at Bengals
Maybe A.J. Green comes back at nearly 100 percent this week, but barring that the Ravens look like a far better team to date. I'll do the obvious and take the points.
Ravens 24 - 19
LATE GAMES
Eagles +2.5 at Cardinals
The Eagles are a tough team to read, but with Carson Palmer back, and Arizona laying less than the full three at home, I'm backing the Cardinals.
Cardinals 27 - 23
Colts -3 at Steelers
I keep fading the Colts to my detriment, and never worse than last week when the Bengals offense as a complete no-show. This week, I made the Steelers one of my five TYT plays mostly out of stubbornness, and now I'm having second thoughts. The question is whether the Colts defense, minus Robert Mathis, is really this good. We should find out against a real offense this week. Back Pittsburgh.
Colts 24 - 23
Raiders +7 at Browns
I could go either way here. My inclination would be to buy low on Cleveland after a bad loss, but that's a lot of points for them to lay against a desperate Raiders team that's hung around in a few games this year. Back Oakland.
Browns 19 - 16
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +1.5 at Saints
It's a little crazy to see the Saints favored over the Packers, but they should have won in Detroit, and even a diminished version is stronger at home than on the road. Back New Orleans.
Saints 28 - 24
MONDAY NIGHT
Redskins +9.5 at Cowboys
Like the Jets-Pats last Thursday, these teams have a bit of Army-Navy to them where it doesn't seem to matter how they've done to date. But it's tough to back Colt McCoy on the road against a Cowboys team that's actually good. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take Washington.
Cowboys 28 - 20
I went 8-7 in Week 7 to put me at 61-43-2 on the season. Best bets are 10-10-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
