This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was a mixed bag -- I went 7-7 overall, 3-2 in the Super Contest, but lost my best bet (Eagles.)
This week, I added a wrinkle by making my Week 7 lines before Week 6 and again after Week 6. I'll use the normal after-Week-6 ones for the picks below, but I'll also track how my early lines perform separately to see whether I'm over-adjusting for recent performance.
This week, I especially like the Broncos, Rams, Seahawks and Jets. I feel shaky about the Lions, Bengals and 49ers.
For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -3 at Broncos
I made this line a pick 'em. The Broncos have a good home field advantage in the thin air, and the Chiefs are banged up and traveling on a short week. Plus, the Broncos running game should be able to control the clock. Take the home dog.
Broncos 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Cardinals +3 at Giants
The Giants should have some of their key offensive players back, while the Cardinals get suspended cornerback Patrick Peterson back. This is probably the right line, but give me the Giants laying three at home.
Giants 31 - 27
Texans +1 at Colts
These are roughly equal teams, so this line should be closer to three. The Texans win at the Chiefs was nice, but the Chiefs aren't themselves right now, and the Colts, who also beat the Chiefs at
Last week was a mixed bag -- I went 7-7 overall, 3-2 in the Super Contest, but lost my best bet (Eagles.)
This week, I added a wrinkle by making my Week 7 lines before Week 6 and again after Week 6. I'll use the normal after-Week-6 ones for the picks below, but I'll also track how my early lines perform separately to see whether I'm over-adjusting for recent performance.
This week, I especially like the Broncos, Rams, Seahawks and Jets. I feel shaky about the Lions, Bengals and 49ers.
For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -3 at Broncos
I made this line a pick 'em. The Broncos have a good home field advantage in the thin air, and the Chiefs are banged up and traveling on a short week. Plus, the Broncos running game should be able to control the clock. Take the home dog.
Broncos 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Cardinals +3 at Giants
The Giants should have some of their key offensive players back, while the Cardinals get suspended cornerback Patrick Peterson back. This is probably the right line, but give me the Giants laying three at home.
Giants 31 - 27
Texans +1 at Colts
These are roughly equal teams, so this line should be closer to three. The Texans win at the Chiefs was nice, but the Chiefs aren't themselves right now, and the Colts, who also beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead, are coming off a bye. Take Indy.
Colts 26 - 23
Dolphins +17 at Bills
The Bills are a low-octane, defense-oriented team, so this is a huge number for them. I'd think they'll need a defensive score to get there, and while it could certainly happen, the odds are against it. Take the points.
Bills 20 - 6
Vikings -1 at Lions
I made this game a pick 'em, thinking I'd be on the Vikings, but the market has pushed me to the Lions, who played Monday night and did not look great doing it. I suppose I'll hold my nose with the home dog.
Lions 20 - 19
Raiders +6 at Packers
I made this line seven -- the Packers are good. They badly need Davante Adams back, but Aaron Rodgers looks like himself, the offensive line is excellent, and the pass defense is stout. The Raiders are not a doormat this year, and the Packers are off a short week, but I'll lay the wood.
Packers 27 - 20
Jaguars -3.5 at Bengals
I made this line 2.5, but that was before I knew the Bengals top two cornerbacks were out. Still, the line moved half a point (from three to 3.5) as a result, and I'll stick with Cincy at home.
Jaguars 19 - 16
Rams -3 at Falcons
I was all-in on the Falcons last week, and they might have covered but for a missed PAT, but the bigger takeaway was how bad their defense is. The Rams are a shell of their former selves, but they added Jalen Ramsey, and the Falcons defense is a get-well matchup. Lay the wood.
Rams 33 - 27
49ers -10 at Redskins
This is a massive line, the 49ers are missing key offensive linemen, and they have to travel across the country for an early body-clock game, but the Redskins got their token win last week, and I don't see them having an answer for San Francisco's defense. Lay the wood.
49ers 23 - 10
LATE GAMES
Chargers +2 at Titans
I made this line 1.5, so I'm barely on the Chargers. I don't like their offensive line, and the Titans are stout up front, but Tennessee doesn't have a quarterback, and that's a bigger factor. Take the points.
Chargers 20 - 16
Ravens +3.5 at Seahawks
I made this line 6.5 as I think the Seahawks are the vastly better team, and they're especially tough at home. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 31 - 23
Saints +3 at Bears
I have a theory that quarterback quality matters least when the system and offensive line are good. For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater should only be 2-3 points worse than Drew Brees, now that he's comfortable and playing well in the system. As such this game should be closer to a pick 'em. Take the Saints.
Bears 19 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Eagles +3 at Cowboys
I made this line three also, but I'll take the Eagles in what should be a close game. When in doubt bet on the better coach and organization.
Eagles 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
The Jets with Sam Darnold are an NFL team again, and while the Patriots defense has been great, their opponents have been terrible, and this game is at New York. Take the points.
Patriots 20 - 16
For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.
Last week, I went 7-7, lost my best bet (the Eagles), and went 3-2 in the Super Contest. I'm now 39-53 on the year, 3-3 on best bets and 11-18-1 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
