This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Another decent week, as I went 8-7 overall (I'm not so delusional after a fast start to be upset with 8-7) and 2-1 on my best bets (the original ones were the Broncos and Saints, and I added the Giants in the comments.)
This week, I'm doing a lot of buy-low, sell high on the premise that high week-to-week variance and recency-bias often drive the market and hence the lines. I particularly like the Vikings, Bengals, Falcons and Seahawks, but as usual, I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments before kickoff.
I had a tough time (at least initially) with the Broncos-Jets, Chargers-Raiders, Ravens-Bucs, Steelers-Browns and Colts-Texans.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Colts -3 at Texans
My first instinct was to fade the Colts as the Andrew Luck hype has to make them a public team, and this is a rivalry game on the road. But Thursday night games have been such blowouts, and it's harder to see the case for Houston administering the beating. Or maybe the Thursday blowout is just a five-game anomaly this year, and I shouldn't even consider that as a factor. Back the Texans.
Texans 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -8.5 at Jets
I want to take the Jets here out of principle - you know all the squares are on Denver, so the "value" has to be on the Jets. But the Jets are especially ill-suited to deal with Peyton Manning as he'll diagnose their blitzes and beat up on their weak
Another decent week, as I went 8-7 overall (I'm not so delusional after a fast start to be upset with 8-7) and 2-1 on my best bets (the original ones were the Broncos and Saints, and I added the Giants in the comments.)
This week, I'm doing a lot of buy-low, sell high on the premise that high week-to-week variance and recency-bias often drive the market and hence the lines. I particularly like the Vikings, Bengals, Falcons and Seahawks, but as usual, I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments before kickoff.
I had a tough time (at least initially) with the Broncos-Jets, Chargers-Raiders, Ravens-Bucs, Steelers-Browns and Colts-Texans.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Colts -3 at Texans
My first instinct was to fade the Colts as the Andrew Luck hype has to make them a public team, and this is a rivalry game on the road. But Thursday night games have been such blowouts, and it's harder to see the case for Houston administering the beating. Or maybe the Thursday blowout is just a five-game anomaly this year, and I shouldn't even consider that as a factor. Back the Texans.
Texans 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -8.5 at Jets
I want to take the Jets here out of principle - you know all the squares are on Denver, so the "value" has to be on the Jets. But the Jets are especially ill-suited to deal with Peyton Manning as he'll diagnose their blitzes and beat up on their weak secondary. On the other side of the ball, if Eric Decker is less than 100 percent (or doesn't play), the Jets have no one to stretch the field. But I wonder whether this isn't one of those: "Don't worry about the 'how', just know that Vegas isn't giving money away" games. I'll hold my nose and back the Jets.
Broncos 27 - 20
Steelers +2 at Browns
I hate handicapping AFC North games. I like to think all the teams are roughly equal, and they'll just slug it out and decide it with field goals, but things are changing. The Steelers haven't been good defensively so far, and Brian Hoyer's shown a pulse even with no receivers of note to whom to throw. I guess I'll take the Browns at home laying less than the full three.
Browns 23 - 20
Jaguars +6 at Titans
I can see two sides to this one: (1) The underachieving Titans having taken it on the chin for most of the early going finally take out their frustrations on the only team they can; or (2) Who the hell is Tennessee to be laying six against anyone? Both sound plausible, but I'll go with the former. Back the Titans.
Titans 27 - 17
Packers -3.5 at Dolphins
Whenever I fade the Packers as road favorites in these spots they seem to cover, but I'll do it again off the blowout win over Christian Ponder's Vikings. The Dolphins are at least league average and should move the ball against Green Bay's defense. Back Miami.
Packers 27 - 24
Lions -1.5 at Vikings
If Calvin Johnson doesn't play, I rate the Lions offense as average at best. Their defense is still decent, but I like the Vikings as a buy-low at home, especially with Teddy Bridgewater back. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 20 - 16
Panthers +7 at Bengals
Cam Newton played well at home against Chicago, but the degree of difficulty in Cincinnati is far higher. Plus, I like buying the Bengals off an embarrassing loss on national TV. Back Cincy.
Bengals 27 - 13
Patriots -3 at Bills
The Patriots are 100 percent back, right? Just as we shouldn't have buried them after a four-game sample, we shouldn't resurrect them entirely after one impressive showing at home. I'm inclined to take the Bills - who are by no means a doormat - with the points at home.
Patriots 21 - 20
Ravens -3 at Buccaneers
I hate this game. I used to think, "When in doubt, pick the home dog," but it's also a buy-low on Baltimore and a sell-high on Tampa, coming off two strong games. It's a coin flip, but I suppose I'll take the Bucs because I much prefer to use the Ravens when they're at home.
Ravens 19 - 17
LATE GAMES
Chargers -7 at Raiders
The Chargers strike me as a top team with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the Raiders for God knows what reason tend to play them tough, and this is a fairly big number on the road. I hate to do it, but I'll take Oakland.
Chargers 24 - 20
Bears +3 at Falcons
The Falcons are bad on the road, but typically good at home, and while the Bears are a desperate animal right now, Atlanta needs this game as much as they do. Lay the wood.
Falcons 31 - 24
Cowboys +8 at Seahawks
I'm inclined to back the Seahawks at home almost reflexively, and this is a particularly good spot given Dallas has made some believers over the first five weeks, and the line is fairly modest. Back Seattle.
Seahawks 34 - 17
Redskins +3.5 at Cardinals
Obviously, Carson Palmer's (and Drew Stanton's) uncertain stati (is that a word?) are big variables here, but I like backing Arizona at home, and I also like that they got blown out in Denver last week. Back the Cardinals.
Cardinals 23 - 16
SUNDAY NIGHT
Giants +3 at Eagles
I think the Giants are the better, more balanced team, but I'm concerned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is less than 100 percent, and the Giants have a tendency to give up big plays, something in which the Eagles specialize. That said, I'd be surprised if Eli Manning doesn't have the chance to win it on a fourth quarter drive at some point, so I'll take the points.
Eagles 31 - 30
MONDAY NIGHT
49ers -3.5 at Rams
The Rams tend to play their NFC West rivals tough, and maybe Austin Davis is a real quarterback (hard to tell off the Eagles game as they made Kirk Cousins look awfully good too.) I'll take the points at home.
49ers 20 - 19
I went 8-7 in Week 5 to put me at 49-25-2 on the season. Best bets are 9-5-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
