This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Another strong week at 8-4-1 overall (1-1 on best bets), but let me repeat: "This is not sustainable." Of course, I hope to keep it going for as long as possible.
I've been forced to look at the games earlier in the week this year due to our RotoWire/TYT videos (will embed here once it's been edited) shooting Tuesday morning, and I'm not deviating from my initial leans before writing up the column. I look at the slate, make my calls, some of which I'm not especially clear on, and then don't move off them no matter what I read or hear. That might sound almost naively superstitious - and maybe it is - but on the off chance I'm seeing things clearly before my mind can cause problems, I'm sticking with it - at least until I hit a cold spell.
My best bets this week are the Saints and Broncos. I might add one or two more in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Vikings +9 at Packers
I'd prefer Teddy Bridgewater to Christian Ponder, of course, but either way, I think the Vikings move the ball against the Packers defense. Maybe Aaron Rodgers lights up Minnesota's defense at home, but Drew Brees and the Saints didn't in New Orleans. Back the Vikings.
Packers 24 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Bears +2.5 at Panthers
Two teams heading in the wrong direction, and it's tempting to go with the narrative that the Panthers are done after consecutive blowouts to the Steelers
Another strong week at 8-4-1 overall (1-1 on best bets), but let me repeat: "This is not sustainable." Of course, I hope to keep it going for as long as possible.
I've been forced to look at the games earlier in the week this year due to our RotoWire/TYT videos (will embed here once it's been edited) shooting Tuesday morning, and I'm not deviating from my initial leans before writing up the column. I look at the slate, make my calls, some of which I'm not especially clear on, and then don't move off them no matter what I read or hear. That might sound almost naively superstitious - and maybe it is - but on the off chance I'm seeing things clearly before my mind can cause problems, I'm sticking with it - at least until I hit a cold spell.
My best bets this week are the Saints and Broncos. I might add one or two more in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Vikings +9 at Packers
I'd prefer Teddy Bridgewater to Christian Ponder, of course, but either way, I think the Vikings move the ball against the Packers defense. Maybe Aaron Rodgers lights up Minnesota's defense at home, but Drew Brees and the Saints didn't in New Orleans. Back the Vikings.
Packers 24 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Bears +2.5 at Panthers
Two teams heading in the wrong direction, and it's tempting to go with the narrative that the Panthers are done after consecutive blowouts to the Steelers and Ravens. But they're at home and laying less than three against a team with a poor defense, and we don't really know the narrative until it happens. Back the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 23
Browns +1.5 at Titans
Sadly I watched more of the Titans-Colts game than I should have, and Tennessee was largely done in by fumbles, drops and penalties. Charlie Whitehurst actually looked competent. I think the Titans hold serve at home.
Titans 20 - 17
Rams +7 at Eagles
The Eagles didn't look good in San Francisco, but the Niners defense had an uncharacteristic amount of rest in the first half due to special teams and defensive scores. Expect Philly to bounce back at home.
Eagles 34 - 17
Falcons +4 at Giants
I hate to keep backing my own team, especially as a favorite, but I believe in the Giants turnaround on offense, in part due to much better offensive line play, and the Falcons are almost an auto-fade on the road. Back New York.
Giants 27 - 20
Buccaneers +10 at Saints
The Saints are auto-fade on the road and auto-back at home, and it's nice they're coming off an ugly loss and Tampa's coming off an upset win. Lay the wood.
Saints 37 - 17
Texans +5.5 at Cowboys
People are buying into the Cowboys a little bit, and so now is a good time to sell them. The Texans are decent defensively, and I think they'll move the ball on Dallas' defense. Back Houston.
Texans 20 - 19
Bills +7 at Lions
The Bills are actually a good team except for the quarterback position, and now that EJ Manuel's out, their offense has a chance to find some rhythm. I think Buffalo will hang around.
Lions 24 - 23
Ravens +3.5 at Colts
This game gave me trouble. I like the Ravens a lot better at home, but think they should be able to beat up the Colts physically and at least keep it close. Take the points.
Colts 27 - 24
Steelers -6.5 at Jaguars
The Jaguars are a doormat by any defintion, but the Steelers shouldn't be laying 6.5 on the road against anyone right now. Back Jacksonville.
Steelers 24 - 20
LATE GAMES
Cardinals +7 at Broncos
The Cardinals defense should slow Peyton Manning a bit, but Denver's defense could give Drew Stanton some problems on the road. Back the Broncos.
Broncos 31 - 17
Chiefs +6 at 49ers
These are roughly equal teams as far as I'm concerned. Six seems like too much. Back Kansas City.
49ers 20 - 19
Jets +6.5 at Chargers
This game is so obvious it makes me nervous. San Diego looks like one of the best teams in the league, while the Jets are below average. Yet the line in San Diego is less than a touchdown. It smells like a trap, but you can't be looking for monsters under the bed. Back the Chargers.
Chargers 27 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bengals -1 at Patriots
The Patriots are a great buy-low off the Monday night embarrassment, but they're also a public team, and the Bengals are probably good. Still, I'm backing New England out of principle as a home dog in this spot.
Patriots 27 - 26
MONDAY NIGHT
Seahawks -7 at Redskins
The Seahawks aren't the same team on the road, and unless the Redskins are a league doormat - possible, but far from proven - this is too many points. Back Washington.
Seahawks 23 - 20
I went 8-4-1 in Week 4 to put me at 41-18-2 on the season. Best bets are 7-4-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
