Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 3 - With Video

After a 13-3 week (3-0 on best bets), I was excited to see this week's lines. Everything looks easier when you're on a heater, as you feel more clear about what's important and less likely to overthink. But as I went over the Week 3 slate, I didn't feel that way.

For starters, a couple of the lines moved against me. Pittsburgh was getting only three, in which case Carolina was an easy best bet, but at 3.5, it's not so easy. The Saints were laying 9.5 with Adrian Peterson, and now they're parting with more than 10 without him (I didn't think in his current state he was going to be a major factor.)

Moreover, A.J. Green and Carson Palmer are iffy, and their presence or absence would almost certainly make a significant difference.

Finally, the market now has a couple weeks of data, and the lines are a little tighter than they were. I don't want to overstate it, but as far as weeks go, my confidence in this one is on the low side, despite the strong start.

My best bet is the Saints. It's odd because my best bets in Weeks 1 and 2 were fading them (Week 1 ATL, Week 2 CLE), so the Saints have been involved in all three to date.

If I had to pick another one, I'd probably say the Packers. Let's make it official - Saints and Packers.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers +6.5 at Falcons

The Falcons are better at home, and I expect Julio Jones and Matt Ryan to have big days, but Atlanta's defense is poor, and Tampa should move the ball. Back the Bucs.

Falcons 30 - 24

EARLY GAMES

Chargers +2.5 at Bills

I'm torn on this game. The Chargers are probably the better team, but they're not getting the full three. The Bills defense looks good, and EJ Manuel is better than he looked in the preseason. Still, I'll take the points with the more established squad. Back the Chargers.

Chargers 24 - 23

Cowboys -1.5 at Rams

The Cowboys looked good in Tennessee, but I don't think they should be road favorites just yet - especially against a Rams squad that was supposed to be okay before it got destroyed by the Vikings in Week 1. I'll take the home dog here. Back the Rams.

Rams 23 - 20

Redskins +6.5 at Eagles

Both teams are tough to handicap given how inconsistent they've been. For the Eagles it's from half to half and for the Redskins it's from game to game. My inclination is to take the points as both teams are likely to score, and barring a big turnover differential, neither will pull away. Back Washington.

Eagles 31 - 27

Texans -2.5 at Giants

After a 2-14 season, the Texans look pretty good, and that's without their No. 1 overall pick. But the Giants showed up last week, only to be undone by special teams failures. I think the game should be a pick 'em, but the Giants are getting points. Back New York.

Giants 21- 20

Vikings +10.5 at Saints

I liked this better when Adrian Peterson was playing, and the line was only 9.5, but it doesn't matter that much. The Saints at home are typically unbeatable, and the Vikings are average at best. Lay the wood.

Saints 37 - 17

Titans +7 at Bengals

A.J. Green's status is a big deal here, and we won't know it for a few days. My inclination is usually to take the Bengals at home if the price is reasonable, and I trust Cincy's defense. Back the Bengals.

Bengals 23 - 13

Ravens -1.5 at Browns

I like the Ravens better as a home team, and I'm not sure they're better than the Browns as this line implies. I'll take Cleveland as a home dog.

Browns 19 - 17

Packers +2 at Lions

Both teams should score a lot of points, but this pick comes down to Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Stafford, and I have to bet on the former. Back Green Bay.

Packers 31 - 30

Colts -7 at Jaguars

Normally I just take the dog here as the public is all over the favorite, and Vegas knows this. Plus Jacksonville is a great buy-low coming off the blowout to a mediocre Redskins team. And no one thinks the Colts could go 0-3, so it's just a matter of victory margin (in the minds of most.) So it screams Jacksonville at home plus seven, and the question is do I have the stones to do it because I too think the Colts are going to destroy them. So long as they don't announce Blake Bortles is starting, I do not. Back Indy.

Colts 27 - 17

Raiders +14 at Patriots

The Patriots often blow out bad teams, and no one qualifies like the Raiders. But my inclination on double-digit spreads is to take the dog and not think twice. Back the Raiders.

Patriots 30 - 17

LATE GAMES

49ers -3 at Cardinals

It's insane to pick this game on Wednesday with Carson Palmer's status in doubt, but the Thursday game forces us to do just that. I like the Cardinals as home dogs even with a backup quarterback. Back Arizona.

49ers 19 - 17

Broncos +5 at Seahawks

I'm pretty sure Peyton Manning's watched tape of the Super Bowl blowout and has some new ideas, and Pro Bowl left tackle Ryan Clady is now healthy again. Still, I have a hard time taking anyone in Seattle, let alone a public team that will fetch a premium for its skill players and payback narrative. Back the Seahawks.

Seahawks 27 - 20

Chiefs +4.5 at Dolphins

I used to love betting the Dolphins at home in September as the heat and humidity are tough to deal with, but the Chiefs are a desperate animal at this point and will hang around. Back KC.

Dolphins 20 - 19

Steelers +3.5 at Panthers

This line opened at three, and had it stayed there it would be a no-brainer for me as I can't put the Steelers on equal footing with the Panthers. At 3.5 it's a closer call, but I'll still lay the points with the better team at home. Back Carolina.

Panthers 24 - 19

Bears +2.5 at Jets

This line looks about right. I don't trust the Chicago defense, and Geno Smith typically plays better at home, but Jay Cutler and his receivers should also shred New York's secondary. Back the Bears.

Bears 27 - 24

I went 13-3 in Week 2 to put me at 22-9-1 on the season. Best bets are 5-2-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.