Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 3

I went 8-7-1 last week which isn't terrible, but I gave a couple games away, notably Jets-Pats (the Jets were clearly a buy-low), and the Colts-Giants. This week, I like the 49ers and Dolphins, especially and had a bit of trouble with the Giants, Broncos, Bills and Lions.

EARLY GAMES

49ers -2 at Chiefs

Normally, I'd be on the home dog, but the Niners outplayed the Saints last week, and Alex Smith looked a lot better. The Arrowhead crowd was awfully tough on the Chargers, but give me the desperate Niners to bounce back.

49ers 17 - 13

Bengals -3 at Panthers

This is a fishy line - why aren't the Bengals favored by seven? Didn't Carolina just get blown out at home by the Bucs? And didn't Cincy just beat the Ravens who beat the Jets who beat the Pats who beat... never mind. Take the home dog here because the line makes no sense. Back Carolina.

Bengals 20 - 19

Browns +11 at Ravens

I'd actually feel better if Seneca Wallace were starting, but it looks like Jake Delhomme's got a good shot to go. If that's the case, expect multiple turnovers in Baltimore, and even if Cleveland keeps it close for a while, the Ravens should pull away.

Ravens 31 - 6

Lions +11.5 at Vikings

Maybe the Vikings flex their muscles at home after a tough start, but they're at the point where they need to prove they can lay double digits against what appears to be a vastly improved Detroit squad. Back the Lions.

Vikings 24 - 20

Titans +3 at Giants

This is the right line - two teams coming off poor showings, with the road dog getting three points. I'll take the Giants because I think their defense should match up better against Tennessee's largely one-dimensional attack. But I don't feel strongly about it. Back New York.

Giants 20 - 16

Steelers -2.5 at Buccaneers

The Steelers seem like such an obvious play given their all-world defense, but with Charlie Batch under center and laying points on the road, I'm going to roll the dice with Tampa. Back the Bucs.

Steelers 10 - 9

Falcons +3.5 at Saints

I expect the Falcons to be up for this game against a 2-0 division rival that also happens to be the defending Super Bowl champ. The Falcons need the game more, and New Orleans is coming off short week in a game they were lucky to win. Back Atlanta.

Falcons 27 - 23

Bills +14.5 at Patriots

The switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick can only help, and I'd expect the Bills to get
the ball into the hands of their playmakers - Lee Evans and C.J. Spiller - more this week. I have no idea who the Pats are right now, and this line presumes a lot. Back Buffalo.

Patriots 27 - 17

Cowboys +3 at Texans

You'd think a desperate Dallas team would have to win here, but then again I thought that last week, and they were at home. Still, I like the way the Cowboys matchup here against a terrible Houston pass defense. Back Dallas who wins outright.

Cowboys 30 - 27

LATE GAMES

Redskins -3.5 at Rams

I know the Rams have been whipping boys the last couple seasons, but I think there's light at the end of the tunnel with Sam Bradford, and I'll take more than a FG at home against a Redskins team that's one-dimensional offensively. Back St. Louis.

Redskins 19 - 16

Eagles -3 at Jaguars

The Jaguars have to be the value here after getting blown out in San Diego last week. There's nothing remotely appealing about them, so the line is probably skewed in their favor. Back Jacksonville.

Eagles 27 - 26

Chargers -5.5 at Seahawks

The Chargers bounced back at home last week, but let's not anoint them this kind of favorite status in a tough road venue just yet. Back the Seahawks.

Chargers 24 - 20

Colts -6 at Broncos

The Colts absolutely annihilated the Giants last week on national TV, so it's probably a good time to fade them. Not that they couldn't so the same to the Broncos, but hopefully Denver won't be playing six DBs and making it an easy call for Indy to gash them with the run. Back Denver.

Colts 27 - 23

Raiders +4 at Cardinals

I want to pick the Raiders with Bruce Gradkowski under center, but this line seems a little fishy to me - why not three points after Oakland won last week, and Arizona was blown out? Something's up. Back the Cardinals.

Cardinals 23 - 16

SUNDAY NIGHT

Jets +1.5 at Dolphins

The Jets stock went back up after a convincing win over the Patriots, but New York always seems to have trouble with the Dolphins, and now they're barely getting points on the road. Moreover, with Braylon Edwards (likely limited) and Darrelle Revis likely missing the game, New York is partly short a key big-play threat on offense and its best player on defense. Back the Dolphins.

Dolphins 24 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Packers -3 at Bears

I find it very hard to turn down Monday night home dogs, especially in a rivalry like this with the division on the line. Back the Bears.

Packers 31 - 30

We were 8-7-1 last week to go 18-11-3 on the season. We were 131-122 last year against the spread. From 1999-2009 we've gone 1439-1262 (53.3%, not including ties)