This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 9-7 last week, but welched on my promise to pick a best bet in the comments. I actually would have taken Carolina -3.5, but the line moved to four, so I'd be cheating if I added it at 3.5 as a best bet on Friday, and I'd be making a worse pick if I added it and moved the line to four. It turns out I made the right call staying away because it would have turned a win into a push. The other complicating factor is I had it at 3.5 in Staff Picks, and I don't want the messiness of having different records in different places on the site.
The game I should have made my best bet was Atlanta over New Orleans - I liked it all the way, and it was an easy cover, but for whatever reason it didn't occur to me to use it at the time.
Week 17 requires a different kind of speculation than a normal week - you also have to decide which teams will try. The Patriots, for example are priced to take the contest halfway seriously, despite having nothing for which to play, and the Broncos are priced to go all out even though there's a 60-65 percent chance they'll be locked into the No. 2 seed before kickoff. The Jets-Dolphins and Cardinals-Niners are interesting because both coaches are likely to be gone, and it's hard to say whether their teams will remind fans and management
I went 9-7 last week, but welched on my promise to pick a best bet in the comments. I actually would have taken Carolina -3.5, but the line moved to four, so I'd be cheating if I added it at 3.5 as a best bet on Friday, and I'd be making a worse pick if I added it and moved the line to four. It turns out I made the right call staying away because it would have turned a win into a push. The other complicating factor is I had it at 3.5 in Staff Picks, and I don't want the messiness of having different records in different places on the site.
The game I should have made my best bet was Atlanta over New Orleans - I liked it all the way, and it was an easy cover, but for whatever reason it didn't occur to me to use it at the time.
Week 17 requires a different kind of speculation than a normal week - you also have to decide which teams will try. The Patriots, for example are priced to take the contest halfway seriously, despite having nothing for which to play, and the Broncos are priced to go all out even though there's a 60-65 percent chance they'll be locked into the No. 2 seed before kickoff. The Jets-Dolphins and Cardinals-Niners are interesting because both coaches are likely to be gone, and it's hard to say whether their teams will remind fans and management of who they were at their best, or give them a final shove out the door like bouncers ejecting belligerent drunks.
I don't see any clear best bets here, either, but if I had to pick, I'd go with the Eagles and/or Buccaneers. If the lines don't move, I might add one or two in the comments.
The games I had the toughest time with were the Jets-Dolphins, Broncos-Raiders and Cardinals-Niners.
EARLY GAMES
Jaguars +9.5 at Texans
The Texans have a remote shot at the playoffs, but I'll sell them high off the Baltimore game and take the points here. Back Jacksonville.
Texans 24 - 16
Colts -7 at Titans
The Colts have nothing for which to play, but they were so awful in Week 16, I'd guess they'd prefer not to go into the playoffs on such an ugly run. Plus, the Titans are the worst team in the league. But this is a lot of points on the road in a game where the motivations are less than assured. I'll hold my nose and take Tennessee.
Colts 23 - 20
Browns +10 at Ravens
The Browns might have practice squad QB Connor Shaw starting Sunday, and while the Ravens haven't looked good the past couple weeks, I think they'll roll at home with a potential playoff berth still on the line. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 23 - 10
Bills +4.5 at Patriots
The Pats might play their starters for a while, but the Bills are a good team, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are sitting in the fourth quarter. Back Buffalo.
Bills 24 - 13
Jets +6 at Dolphins
I keep betting the Dolphins based on their advanced metrics, and they keep failing to cover. The Jets have shown up for Rex Ryan of late, but you wonder if falling just short against the Patriots used up whatever energy they had left. I could go either way on this, but my first instinct says New York shows up for Ryan one last time. Back the Jets.
Jets 23 - 20
Bears +6 at Vikings
The Vikings look like a league average team, but I like the Bears as a sizable underdog here, and I suspect Jay Cutler's benching might result in more focus than usual - admittedly that's a low bar to clear. Still, I'm taking the points. Back Chicago.
Vikings 26 - 21
Chargers +1 at Chiefs
The Chargers had one of the better comebacks I've seen in recent years against the 49ers to put them one win away from a playoff spot, but going on the road to Kansas City in late December should be a tall order for them, even with Chase Daniel playing the role of caretaker instead of the injured Alex Smith. And the Chiefs have a remote shot to make the playoffs too, so they'll be going all out. Back KC.
Chiefs 23 - 20
Eagles +3 at Giants
I faded the Giants last week, thinking the Rams would get to Eli Manning, and I was dead wrong. Still, I think the Eagles will show up here, and three points make them a decent value. Back Philly.
Eagles 27 - 19
Cowboys -6 at Redskins
The Cowboys aren't likely playing for much as someone's going to win the Detroit-Green Bay game, and the Seahawks are 12.5-point favorites over the Rams. That likely locks the Cowboys into the No. 3 seed, and they're laying points on the road. Back Washington.
Cowboys 27 - 24
Saints -4 at Buccaneers
I suppose the Bucs need to lose to lock up the first pick in the NFL draft, but assuming they don't outright tank, I'll take them (or just about anyone) getting four at home against an average-at-best Saints team. Back Tampa.
Buccaneers 27 - 23
LATE GAMES
Lions +7.5 at Packers
Unless Matthew Stafford has a strong game on the road - something he was unable to do against Chicago, of all teams, last week - I'd expect the Packers to pull away at Lambeau. Back Green Bay.
Packers 30 - 17
Panthers +4 at Falcons
The Falcons have played better of late, and I trust them to handle the Panthers at home. Lay the wood.
Falcons 27 - 20
Rams +12.5 at Seahawks
The Rams tend to play the Seahawks tough, so I suppose I'll buy low here. Back St. Louis.
Seahawks 24 - 13
Cardinals +6 at 49ers
The Cardinals got destroyed at home by the Seahawks, and after considering a quarterback switch will stay with Ryan Lindley, who has yet to throw for a touchdown in more than 200 career attempts (8 INT). The Niners could quit given Jim Harbaugh's lame-duck status and their devastating loss to the Chargers last week. Or they could rally to send Harbaugh out with one last big win. Both narratives makes sense to me, but I'll take the points, as I'd expect it to be a low-scoring game. Back Arizona.
49ers 17 - 13
Raiders +14 at Broncos
The Raiders have been good at home lately and terrible on the road, and the Broncos need this game to secure a first-round bye. Lay the wood.
Broncos 34 - 17
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bengals +3.5 at Steelers
This game means a little bit as the winner would get a first-round home game. I see these teams as roughly equal, so as long as A.J. Green is okay (it looks like he will be), I'll take the points. Back Cincinnati.
Steelers 24 - 23
I went 9-7 in Week 16 to put me at 125-111-4 on the season. Best bets are 17-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
