Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 16

Another below-.500 week at 7-8-1. I didn't feel especially strongly about any game, and on the ones that were pure coin flips, I went 2-3.

This week, nothing jumps out at me immediately, but it's been a few weeks since I had a best bet, and I don't want to run out the clock to have a decent record (17-12) there. I'll try to add one or two in the comments in the next few days.

The toughest picks for me were DET-CHI, NE-NYJ, BUF-OAK and IND-DAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Titans +3 at Jaguars

I actually like Charlie Whitehurst a little bit as far as third-string quarterbacks go, but the Titans are the worst team in the NFL, and the Jaguars are merely very bad. Back Jacksonville at home.

Jaguars 23 - 17

SATURDAY GAMES

Eagles -7.5 at Redskins

Robert Griffin looked as healthy as he has since his rookie year, but in the second half, he imploded, taking seven sacks during his 27 pass attempts. The feud with coach Jay Gruden doesn't help, either. But this is a big line at Washington. Back the Redskins.

Eagles 31 - 24

Chargers +1.5 at 49ers

I don't know who the Niners are right now, so I'd probably avoid this game. I suppose I'll take San Diego, who still has a shot at a playoff berth, but I'm not enthusiastic about it. Back the Chargers.

Chargers 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Vikings +6.5 at Dolphins

I'm not a Teddy Bridgewater believer, and I think he'll have a hard time on the road against this Dolphins defense. Back Miami.

Dolphins 27 - 13

Packers -10.5 at Buccaneers

I assume the Packers will flex their muscles after the poor showing in Buffalo, but this is a big number on the road. Back the Bucs.

Packers 30 - 20

Lions -8 at Bears

I was set to take the Bears, but that was before Marc Trestman decided to pull the plug on Jay Cutler and go with Jimmy Clausen. At least it bought me an extra point due to the line move. I'll stick with the Bears.

Lions 24 - 17

Falcons +6 at Saints

The Saints home/road splits are almost backwards this year, and the Falcons showed up against the Packers and Steelers, the latter game without Julio Jones who might be back. Back Atlanta.

Saints 27 - 23

Patriots -10 at Jets

This game's really about Geno Smith - if he plays the way he did against the Vikings, the Jets cover. If he reverts to the way he's played most of the year, the Pats roll. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Back the Jets.

Patriots 27 - 19

Chiefs +3 at Steelers

I could go either way here, but give me Kansas City whose solid pass defense and explosive run game keep this close. Back the Chiefs who should win but for bad clock management by Andy Reid in the closing seconds.

Steelers 28 - 27

Browns +3.5 at Panthers

I was rooting for the Johnny Manziel story, but he didn't look remotely prepared for an NFL game. Maybe he'll do better the second time around, but Cam Newton might be back, and we know he's an NFL quarterback at least. Back Carolina.

Panthers 23 - 16

Ravens -5.5 at Texans

The Texans are picking up quarterbacks off the street. The way to beat the Ravens is by attacking down the field, and it's unlikely Houston will be able to do that. The Texans defense can give the Ravens problems, but Baltimore should pull away at some point barring turnovers. Back the Ravens.

Ravens 27 - 13

LATE GAMES

Giants +5 at Rams

The Giants have covered back to back weeks, Odell Beckham and Jason Pierre-Paul look like superstars and the Rams' offense was exposed by the Cardinals last week. But the Giants don't run the ball well, and their pass protection probably won't hold up against St. Louis. Back the Rams.

Rams 23 - 17

Bills -6 at Raiders

I suppose the sharp play is the Raiders, given the Bills showing at home against the Packers last week. Back Oakland.

Bills 17 - 13

Colts +3 at Cowboys

I hate picking the Colts, and I hate picking against them. This week they don't have a lot for which to play because they're a game behind both the Pats and Broncos and lost to both heads up. That means for the Colts to get the No. 2 seed, either Denver or New England would have to lose out. Both are favored this week (the Pats heavily), and the Broncos host the Raiders next week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been bad at home and could be without DeMarco Murray. In the end, I think the Colts will make the effort regardless, so I'll take the points.

Colts 27 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Seahawks -8 at Cardinals

I know the Cardinals don't have a quarterback, but this is a massive line in Arizona. I'd expect Arizona's defense to show up and keep it close enough. Back the Cardinals.

Seahawks 13 - 6

MONDAY NIGHT

Broncos -3 at Bengals

I liked this game a lot better when the Bengals were getting three and a half. This could be a tough, cold weather game, though, and in that case, I'll take the home dog. Back Cincinnati.

Broncos 21 - 20

I went 7-8-1 in Week 15 to put me at 116-104-4 on the season. Best bets are 17-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.