This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I finally broke the never-ending .500 streak with a 10-6 showing, but it might be too little too late as far as salvaging the season-long record goes. That is, unless I go 15-1 the last two weeks.
I especially like the Lions and to a lesser extent the Eagles, Panthers and Chiefs.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Falcons -3.5 at Lions
I can't think of a better time to buy the Lions low off an implosion in Arizona and sell the Falcons high after a big win against the Giants. Take Detroit who keeps it close and possibly wins outright. Back the Lions.
Lions 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Titans +13 at Packers
These double-digit spreads are usually coin flips for me, and I generally go with "tails," aka the underdog. Plus the Packers haven't looked like a 13-point favorite since they blew out the Texans a couple months ago. Back Tennessee.
Packers 27 - 17
Raiders +9 at Panthers
The Panthers are at least a league-average team with a bad record, while the Raiders are a doormat. Lay the points here. Back Carolina.
Panthers 31 - 13
Bills +4 at Dolphins
I have no idea what to do with this game - two mid-level teams that lack consistency and play different styles. When in doubt, take the points. Back Buffalo.
Dolphins 20 - 17
Bengals +3.5 at Steelers
The Bengals had 10 days off, are facing a Steelers team off a devastating overtime loss that's missing most of its secondary and getting
I finally broke the never-ending .500 streak with a 10-6 showing, but it might be too little too late as far as salvaging the season-long record goes. That is, unless I go 15-1 the last two weeks.
I especially like the Lions and to a lesser extent the Eagles, Panthers and Chiefs.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Falcons -3.5 at Lions
I can't think of a better time to buy the Lions low off an implosion in Arizona and sell the Falcons high after a big win against the Giants. Take Detroit who keeps it close and possibly wins outright. Back the Lions.
Lions 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Titans +13 at Packers
These double-digit spreads are usually coin flips for me, and I generally go with "tails," aka the underdog. Plus the Packers haven't looked like a 13-point favorite since they blew out the Texans a couple months ago. Back Tennessee.
Packers 27 - 17
Raiders +9 at Panthers
The Panthers are at least a league-average team with a bad record, while the Raiders are a doormat. Lay the points here. Back Carolina.
Panthers 31 - 13
Bills +4 at Dolphins
I have no idea what to do with this game - two mid-level teams that lack consistency and play different styles. When in doubt, take the points. Back Buffalo.
Dolphins 20 - 17
Bengals +3.5 at Steelers
The Bengals had 10 days off, are facing a Steelers team off a devastating overtime loss that's missing most of its secondary and getting the half-point hook. Take the points, though the Steelers eke out the win. Back Cincy.
Steelers 23 - 20.
Patriots -14.5 at Jaguars
If I'm ever going to take a double-digit favorite it's going to be the Pats, but probably not on the road. Back the Jaguars.
Patriots 31 - 17
Colts -7 at Chiefs
The Chiefs were just shut out by the 32nd-ranked scoring defense in the league last week, so it doesn't get much lower than that. Sounds like a buying opportunity to me. Back Kansas City.
Colts 20 - 16
Saints +2 at Cowboys
I despise the Cowboys, and I don't give them much of a home-field advantage, but I think they'll move the ball against the Saints with ease, while putting up some resistance on defense. Back Dallas.
Cowboys 31 - 20
Redskins -6.5 at Eagles
It looks like RGIII is back, but I don't see the Eagles lying down in a divisional home game. And Nick Foles should be able to move the ball on the Redskins defense. Back Philly.
Redskins 24 - 23
Rams +3 at Buccaneers
I have no feel for these teams this week. I've been down on the Bucs of late, and it's paid off, but they're a decent buy low off the blowout by the Saints. That said, their stock hasn't really dropped that much if the Rams are getting the full three. I guess I'll take the points. Back St. Louis.
Rams 21 - 20
Vikings +8.5 at Texans
I really want to fade the Texans laying 8.5 against Adrian Peterson on his mission to break the rushing record, but then I keep coming back to Christian Ponder. Back Houston.
Texans 30 - 20
Chargers +1.5 at Jets
The mockumentary reaches its climactic episode. The Jets contemplate benching all their quarterbacks while Norv Turner figures out how to get Ronnie Brown more touches. Not suitable for some viewers.
Jets 19 - 10
LATE GAMES
Browns +13.5 at Broncos
Let's go tails here again. The Broncos are elite, but the Browns aren't that bad, and I expect them to show up. Back Cleveland.
Broncos 27 - 16
Bears -5.5 at Cardinals
Maybe the Bears stop the bleeding, but I can't lay 5.5 on the road given how bad their offense is against a good defense. Back the Cardinals.
Bears 13 - 10
Giants -1.5 at Ravens
You know things are bad for the Ravens when they're getting points at home against a team that just got blown out 34-0. Still, the Ravens have clinched a playoff berth, the Giants' backs are to the wall, and New York could get some key injured players back, notably Prince Amukamara, Kenny Phillips and Ahmad Bradshaw. Back the Giants.
Giants 27 - 24
SUNDAY NIGHT
49ers pick 'em at Seahawks
Both teams have looked awfully strong of late, but the 49ers are coming off the more draining emotional win and have to travel to Seattle, arguably the league's toughest venue. Back the Seahawks.
Seahawks 19 - 16
We went 10-6 last week to go 106-113-5 on the year. From 1999-2011 we've gone 1,689-1,512 (52.8%), not including ties.
