Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 14 - With Video

Last week was pretty ugly at 5-11, but I wisely avoided making any best bets off the slate, and in fact in Staff Picks (where I'm forced to pick one), I went with the Lions (that doesn't count here.) The longer I do this I'm more convinced if I ever were to invest serious money in sports betting, I'd have to be especially judicious in picking my spots.

This week, my only best bet in the Buccaneers, but will add one or two in the comments if that changes. I had an especially tough time with NO-CAR, DEN-BUF, SEA-PHI, SF-OAK, IND-CLE (with Brian Hoyer) and NYJ-MIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -3.5 at Bears

The Bears defense is among the worst in the league, but I think the offense will show up at home. If it does, the Bears should be able to hang with a similarly offense-heavy Cowboys squad. Take the points.

Bears 27 - 24

EARLY GAMES

Ravens +3 at Dolphins

The advanced stats siteslove the Dolphins, but I see this as a 50/50 game, as the venue isn't a huge factor. Take the points.

Ravens 20 - 19

Steelers +3 at Bengals

The Steelers defense is bad, but their offense can shoot it out with almost anyone, and like the Dolphins-Ravens, I see this game as roughly 50/50. Back the Steelers.

Steelers 24 - 23

Colts -3.5 at Browns

I preferred this game with Johnny Manziel, but even so, the Browns are more vulnerable to the run than the pass, and that should help keep things close, especially if Vontae Davis is out. Back Cleveland.

Colts 24 - 21

Texans -5 at Jaguars

Congratulations to the Jaguars for returning those two fumbles for touchdowns last week. It was an amazing achievement. Now if the Texans, who are better than the Giants, don't offer them similar gifts, they should roll. Back Houston.

Texans 27 - 10

Giants pick 'em at Titans

The Giants keep losing, and I keep picking them as the value only gets better. Let's keep it going - surely blowing a 21-point lead to Jacksonville was rock bottom, and it can't get worse, right? Back New York.

Giants 24 - 20

Panthers +9.5 at Saints

I hate this game because the Saints showed something in Pittsburgh, and they're theoretically much tougher at home. And the Panthers look like a team that's packed it in for the year. But this is a big line between two rivals that were rough equals a few weeks ago. I suppose I'll lay the points.

Saints 30 - 20

Buccaneers +9.5 at Lions

Tampa seems to have turned a corner defensively, and were about 10 yards away from a game-winning field goal against the Bengals last week. The Lions have a good defense, but Matthew Stafford still can't be trusted. Take the points.

Buccaneers 24 - 23

Rams -3 at Redskins

With Colt McCoy under center, the Redskins are a credible offense. They were toe-to-toe in Indy until the defense decided not even to bother covering players down the field. The Rams have played better of late, but the blowout against the Raiders was mostly on Oakland. Back Washington.

Redskins 23 - 20

Jets +6 at Vikings

I have no feel for this game at all. The Jets are bad at passing the ball and stopping the pass. The Vikings are bad on offense. I'm not sure what that means or how that shakes out. I suppose I'll take the points here, but am just guessing. Back New York.

Vikings 17 - 13

LATE GAMES

Bills +10 at Broncos

The Broncos are always one of the hardest teams for me to handicap because I expect them to win big most weeks, but I know that's the square side. And I'm usually wrong about the Bills. While I think Buffalo's defense is good enough to slow down Peyton Manning, I'm not sure the Bills offense will get anything done against a tough Denver defense. Lay the points.

Broncos 27 - 13

Chiefs +1 at Cardinals

The Chiefs defense actually played great against the Broncos, but some bad bounces resulted in a lopsided loss. I think they'll beat the Cardinals here. Back KC.

Chiefs 21 - 13

49ers -8 at Raiders

Normally I'd buy the Raiders low, but then by that principle I'd have to buy the 49ers low too. And the Raiders might have checked out for the year after that first win. Then again, maybe the 49ers have too. I suppose I'll hold my nose and back the Niners to roll.

49ers 31 - 10

Seahawks +1 at Eagles

I've been unimpressed with the Seahawks and fading them the past several weeks to my detriment. Is their defense really back, or just teeing off on weaker quarterbacks? This week should be a good test. Back Philly.

Eagles 23 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots -3.5 at Chargers

I hate laying the wood on the road with a public team, but the Pats could have won in Green Bay, and I'm out on the Chargers despite the win last week in Baltimore. Back the Pats.

Patriots 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Falcons +12.5 at Packers

This is a ridiculous line, but I have a hard time saying how high it would have to be for me to feel comfortable taking the Falcons at Lambeau Field. Fourteen, maybe? Lay the wood.

Packers 37 - 20

I went 5-11 in Week 13 to put me at 103-87-2 on the season. Best bets are 17-11-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.