This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a decent enough week (8-6) and more importantly my best bet, the Bears, covered fairly easily (Minnesota's only TD was set up by a 48-yard run on a fake punt.) That brings best bets to 15-11 on the year.
This week I had a tough time with Texans/Bengals, Rams/Chargers and Seahawks/Cardinals. My best bets are the Giants (pretty sure I'll regret that by the second quarter) and the Vikings. I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -7 at Raiders
Maybe this is another ugly Thursday night blowout, but I'd expect the winless Raiders to show up against a hated rival in a nationally-televised contest. Take the points.
Chiefs 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Browns +3 at Falcons
I usually like the Falcons at home, but I expect Josh Gordon to be a difference maker against a weak Atlanta defense. Back Cleveland.
Browns 30 - 27
Titans +11 at Eagles
This is an awful lot of points to lay for a team that just got blown out, but after Ken Whisenhunt gifted a winnable game to the Steelers and a short week, I expect the Eagles to roll. Back Philly.
Eagles 37 - 17
Lions +7 at Patriots
After decisive wins against the Broncos and Colts, the Patriots have to be even more of a public team than they already were, but I don't respect Matt Stafford or Jim Caldwell, and this is a tough venue, especially later in the year. Back
It was a decent enough week (8-6) and more importantly my best bet, the Bears, covered fairly easily (Minnesota's only TD was set up by a 48-yard run on a fake punt.) That brings best bets to 15-11 on the year.
This week I had a tough time with Texans/Bengals, Rams/Chargers and Seahawks/Cardinals. My best bets are the Giants (pretty sure I'll regret that by the second quarter) and the Vikings. I reserve the right to add or subtract in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -7 at Raiders
Maybe this is another ugly Thursday night blowout, but I'd expect the winless Raiders to show up against a hated rival in a nationally-televised contest. Take the points.
Chiefs 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Browns +3 at Falcons
I usually like the Falcons at home, but I expect Josh Gordon to be a difference maker against a weak Atlanta defense. Back Cleveland.
Browns 30 - 27
Titans +11 at Eagles
This is an awful lot of points to lay for a team that just got blown out, but after Ken Whisenhunt gifted a winnable game to the Steelers and a short week, I expect the Eagles to roll. Back Philly.
Eagles 37 - 17
Lions +7 at Patriots
After decisive wins against the Broncos and Colts, the Patriots have to be even more of a public team than they already were, but I don't respect Matt Stafford or Jim Caldwell, and this is a tough venue, especially later in the year. Back the Pats.
Patriots 24 - 13
Packers -9.5 at Vikings
The Vikings offense is among the worst in the league, and the Packers are on a roll. But this is a big line on the road, and it's time to sell Green Bay off the blowout wins. Back Minnesota.
Packers 24 - 17
Jaguars +14 at Colts
The Colts have blown out some bad teams this year, notably Jacksonville, but they were exposed last week, and I'd expect the Jaguars to follow Bill Belichick's lead and pound the ball. Back Jacksonville.
Colts 27 - 17
Bengals +1.5 at Texans
These are roughly equal teams in my opinion, but the Bengals are getting less than the full three at Houston. Take the Texans.
Texans 24 - 21
Jets +4.5 at Bills
I think the Jets are close to a league-average team with Michael Vick under center, and four and a half is enough, especially in a low-scoring, bad weather game. Back NY.
Bills 16 - 13
Buccaneers +5.5 at Bears
The Bucs played well last week, but now's a good time to sell them again. The Bears should move the ball with ease this week. Back Chicago.
Bears 27 - 19
LATE GAMES
Cardinals +6.5 at Seahawks
This is an interesting line with the 9-1 Cardinals getting nearly a TD. The "sharp" play has to be Seattle, but it feels like that's already priced in. Back the Cards.
Seahawks 23 - 20
Rams +5 at Chargers
The Chargers looked bad against the Raiders last week, while the Rams rolled against the Broncos. Maybe these are teams headed in opposite directions, but I'll go with the larger body of work. Back San Diego.
Chargers 27 - 20
Dolphins +7 at Broncos
I don't know if the Broncos are ever a buy-low - I'd imagine they're still a trendy, public team - but if there were ever a time to get them at a reasonable rate, it's now. The Dolphins grade out well according to the advanced metrics, but I'll lay the wood here with Denver at home.
Broncos 28 - 20
Redskins +9 at 49ers
Robert Griffin was terrible last week - zero pocket presence and not even looking downfield at a wide open DeSean Jackson. Still, I think the Redskins are roughly a league average team and will keep it within range against the 49ers. Back Washington.
49ers 26 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -3.5 at Giants
The Giants should have covered last week even with Eli Manning's terrible day, and while the Cowboys are the better team, the shine has worn off their star (so to speak.) Give me New York as the home dog in the standalone game.
Giants 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Ravens +3.5 at Saints
The contrarian play would be to take the Saints for the bounce-back at home in a national game, but the Ravens are the better team in my opinion, and they're getting the hook. Back Baltimore.
Ravens 27 - 24
I went 8-6 in Week 11 to put me at 89-70-2 on the season. Best bets are 15-11-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.
