This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was a brutal week, though I do take some comfort in the fact that the books got killed, too. If anything, it makes me want to double-down on dogs, as the book has to think the winners (who are favorite-bettors) from last week will be coming back for more, and I'd expect Vegas to adjust the lines accordingly.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Colts -3 at Jaguars
Home dogs got crushed last week, but I'll take the Jags here against a Colts squad that plays much better at home. Back Jacksonville.
Jaguars 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -4 at Panthers
I faded Peyton Manning as a road favorite last week and lost, but I'll double down here against a Carolina team that's quietly playing much better defense of late. Back the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 21
Chargers +3 at Buccaneers
I hate the Chargers because I never know which version will show up. Actually, last week I felt it was right to fade them until they got the two defensive scores late. Still, I expect them to move the ball on Tampa's awful pass defense and keep this one close enough. Back San Diego.
Buccaneers 28 - 27
Titans +6 at Dolphins
Six points seems like an awfully big number for the Dolphins to lay as favorites, but the Titans are one of the league's doormats, especially on defense. Back Miami.
Dolphins 27 - 17
Bills +11 at Patriots
You know the big winners from last week will be hammering the
It was a brutal week, though I do take some comfort in the fact that the books got killed, too. If anything, it makes me want to double-down on dogs, as the book has to think the winners (who are favorite-bettors) from last week will be coming back for more, and I'd expect Vegas to adjust the lines accordingly.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Colts -3 at Jaguars
Home dogs got crushed last week, but I'll take the Jags here against a Colts squad that plays much better at home. Back Jacksonville.
Jaguars 20 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -4 at Panthers
I faded Peyton Manning as a road favorite last week and lost, but I'll double down here against a Carolina team that's quietly playing much better defense of late. Back the Panthers.
Panthers 27 - 21
Chargers +3 at Buccaneers
I hate the Chargers because I never know which version will show up. Actually, last week I felt it was right to fade them until they got the two defensive scores late. Still, I expect them to move the ball on Tampa's awful pass defense and keep this one close enough. Back San Diego.
Buccaneers 28 - 27
Titans +6 at Dolphins
Six points seems like an awfully big number for the Dolphins to lay as favorites, but the Titans are one of the league's doormats, especially on defense. Back Miami.
Dolphins 27 - 17
Bills +11 at Patriots
You know the big winners from last week will be hammering the Patriots, especially after New England rolled up 52 on the Bills in Buffalo a few weeks ago. I have to go the other way here. Back the Bills.
Patriots 28 - 20
Raiders +9 at Ravens
It feels like I take the Raiders almost every week, and not usually with great results. But this line's big enough, and I think they can be competitive against a physical team. Back Oakland.
Ravens 27 - 24
Giants -4 at Bengals
I'm a Giants fan, so it pains me to do this, but I don't see them having an easy time on the road against anyone right now, and four points is too much. The Bengals fell apart down the stretch last week, but I expect them to show up and keep this one close. Back Cincy.
Bengals 24 - 20
Falcons -1.5 at Saints
I keep fading the Falcons and losing - though last week was hard to take as Mike Smith should have gone for it on 4th and 2 rather than kicking the spread-covering field goal - but I have to double down. New Orleans is a tough place to play, and Atlanta's laying points in a game where the Saints are desperate to get back into the race. Back New Orleans.
Saints 31 - 27
Lions -1 at Vikings
The contrarian play is the Vikings, though it's hard to make it with Christian Ponder regressing so much. Still, at home, against a division rival, the Vikings stop the bleeding and pull this one out. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 20 - 17
LATE GAMES
Jets +6.5 at Seahawks
The Jets are an odd team, capable of playing a close game against almost anyone, and also capable of being blown out. Rather than worry about handicapping them, I'll stick with the simple Seahawks mantra of "back at home, fade on the road." The game's in Seattle, so I'm laying the points.
Seahawks 23 - 16
Cowboys -1 at Eagles
It couldn't get much uglier for Philly who couldn't protect Michael Vick at all against the worst defense in NFL history. But I have to buy low and back them at home with a point against the hapless-for-different-reasons Cowboys. Back Philly.
Eagles 24 - 21
Rams +11 at 49ers
The 49ers tend to blow out bad teams, especially at home, so I'll lay the points here. Back San Fran.
49ers 31 - 9
SUNDAY NIGHT
Texans +1 at Bears
Both defenses are stout, but I like Houston's offense a little more, especially in the passing game. The Texans also have more wins against quality opponents. Back Houston.
Texans 17 - 13
MONDAY NIGHT
Chiefs +12 at Steelers
I can't imagine anyone taking the Chiefs in this spot, but I'm going to do it. Their defense looked better at times last week in San Diego, and the Steelers are liable to have a letdown game after a big road win against the Giants. Back Kansas City.
Steelers 24 - 14
We went 4-10 last week to go 59-70-3 on the year. From 1999-2011 we've gone 1,689-1,512 (52.8%), not including ties.
